The NBA rookie extension deadline came and went last Monday without a deal for Celtics point guard Terry Rozier. The decision to pass up long-term security was understandable from his perspective. The Celtics hoped to lock him up but could not offer him the guarantee of a starting spot over the long-term or an annual salary that was close to his potential upside in next summer’s free agent market.
While Rozier opted to roll the dice, a number of 2015 first round picks ended up reaching agreements with their current teams to take them off the market next summer. Let’s take a closer look at those specific deals and assess which side came out looking good in each agreement.
Myles Turner signs four-year, $72-million deal with the Pacers: This contract could reportedly increase in value all the way up to $80 million based on potential incentives, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com. The 22-year-old has been a steal for Indiana ever since they grabbed him at No. 11 overall in the 2015 NBA Draft. He took a step back last year with declines in his PPG (12.5) and RPG (6.4), which makes this current pact a little bit on the pricey side for Indiana for a market that is guaranteed to be crowded with bigs.
Still, when looking at Turner’s age (22) and his defensive potential, it’s hard to take a shot at this deal.
Clint Capela settled for an $18 million per year salary last year in what was a very tight market, so there is a good chance Turner would have topped that this summer. He’s got the added allure of 3-point range (34 percent in career), and that type of spacing combined with his rim protection ability makes the $18 million per year a smart, calculated gamble for the Pacers.
The other benefit for them? Locking up Turner now does not eat into their cap space much next year. They only have $60 million in guaranteed salary committed for 2019-20 after the deal, giving them enough room to chase a max free agent to pair up with him and Victor Oladipo. That could be the core of a top-4 team in the East for the better part of the next decade.
Grade: B+
Cavs sign Larry Nance Jr to four-year, $44.8-million deal: I’ll preface this analysis by saying I’m a big Nance Jr. fan, and I’m not alone on that front. The Celtics, per team sources, planned to pick him at No. 28 in the 2015 NBA Draft before the Lakers snapped him up at No. 27. He’s been a solid energy player off the bench for the last three years in Los Angeles and Cleveland, defending well, hitting the glass hard and rocking the rim whenever he gets the chance on lob opportunities.
With that said, this feels like a bit too much for a guy who is still a limited player from an offensive standpoint. Nance Jr. has averaged just 7.1 ppg in his career, and he doesn’t have a reliable 3-point range (13-of-58 in career from downtown. Paying that kind of cash above the mid-level exception for that kind of production seems to be a bit of a reach. It remains to be seen whether Nance Jr. can be an above average starter in this league, and this type of contract has not aged well in NBA circles when you look at players of a similar skillset at his age (Kenneth Faried, John Henson).
Nance Jr. could end up being a far better player than both of those bigs, but he’s going to have to add some more to his offensive skillset to do so. Otherwise, the Cavs paid a hometown favorite (son of Cavs legend Larry Nance Sr.) his upside in the open market a year before they had to.
Grade: D+
Heat sign Justise Winslow to a three-year, $39-million contract (third-year is a team option): Yet another 2015 draft pick that was the object of Danny Ainge’s eye three years ago will stand pat in Miami after an up-and-down first few seasons in South Beach. The 6-foot-7 forward is still just 22 years old, which makes this contract look like a relative steal for Miami, particularly when noticing the strides Winslow made in his offensive game last year.
He shot a career-high 38 percent from 3-point range while attempting more of them (nearly two per game) than at any other point in his career. Winslow also posted career-highs in defensive rebounding rate and blocks per game, showing off his growth on both ends of the floor as a versatile wing who can serve as a supporting piece on offense.
The Heat are well over the salary cap for the next couple years, so there was little downside to extending Winslow here. His biggest question mark throughout his career has been injuries (missing 82 games over three seasons), so Miami was able to work in a team option at the end of the deal to give themselves additional protection against more health woes. Given how the league is trending toward players like Winslow (lengthy wings), it’s hard to think the Heat would pay any less than this for Winslow next summer upon hitting the open market. If Winslow breaks out, they could have saved themselves a bundle.
Grade: A-
Restricted free agents for next summer after failing to reach extension with their respective teams: Justin Anderson (Hawks), Willie Cauley-Stein (Kings), Sam Dekker (Cavaliers), Jerian Grant (Magic), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Nets), Stanley Johnson (Pistons), Tyus Jones (Timberwolves), Frank Kaminsky (Hornets), Trey Lyles (Nuggets), Jarell Martin (Magic), Emmanuel Mudiay (Knicks), Kelly Oubre Jr. (Wizards), Cameron Payne (Bulls), Bobby Portis (Bulls), Kristaps Porzingis (Knicks), Terry Rozier (Celtics), D’Angelo Russell (Nets), Delon Wright (Raptors)
Other NBA News and Notes:
- Look for Jamal Crawford to make his debut with the Suns this weekend after signing a one-year pact with Phoenix just before the start of the regular season. With so much youth on the roster and so little depth at point guard, it will be an interesting balance for new head coach Igor Kokoskov.
- Nice to see the Nuggets reward Michael Malone with an extension ahead of his contract year. He finished one game shy of the postseason last year despite missing Paul Millsap for much of the year. The pressure will be on him now to deliver this year but he won’t have to worry about losing the locker room with that type of backing behind him.
- Really impressed by what I’ve seen from the Bucks so far, who have already turned into a 3-point shooting juggernaut under new head coach Mike Budenholtzer. With a smart offensive gameplan around Giannis, I think it’s safe to pencil them in as a No. 3 seed in the East at the least.
- How about the Pelicans averaging 140 points per game in their first two contests? Losing Boogie Cousins might be the best thing that could have happened to their offense.