Scout's Take: Run game - or the threat of the run - will play huge role in Patriots-Bears

FOXBOROUGH — Spent some quality time with an NFL scout on Wednesday afternoon to talk about this weekend’s Patriots-Bears matchup and get a few things to look for.

New England is going to face the best run defense its squared off against to this point on the season. The Bears allow an average of 83.4 rushing yards per game (fourth in the league), which means the Patriots’ offense — which has relied on the run game, and built some nifty play-action off that the last three weeks — will be tested. To put that in some sort of perspective, the only other team New England has faced in the top 10 in run defense this year is Houston (10th, 95.8). The only team to top 75 yards on the ground against Chicago was Miami last weekend.

While all stats have to be put in context, one of the reasons the Patriots have been able to control the ground game the last three weeks (a stretch where Sony Michel has been impressive and they’ve averaged 148 rushing yards per game as a team) is because they’ve faced occasionally sloppy run defenses in Miami, Indy and Kansas City. And those advantages in that stretch have helped build a more effective play-action game as a result: Over the first three games of the season, New England was 11-for-20 for 139 yards and an interception on play action. The last three games, the Patriots’ have seen a slight spike in their totals, going 14-for-21 for 188 yards with a touchdown (the dramatic 34-yard pass play to Josh Gordon) and an interception off play action.

Basically, Chicago’s run defense gives it a chance, and that’s one of the key points of emphasis this weekend.


“Chicago can stop the run,” he said. “But when this Patriots team gets that run game going, that offense is almost unstoppable, now that (Julian) Edelman is back. And they build that play-action back in there, and they look really unstoppable. They’re really dangerous if they have that run game, because (Tom) Brady has play-action skills, which allows Rob Gronkowski to find some openings and not get triple-teamed. That keeps teams honest, and that’s when they’re really tough to defend.

“I was with a New England scout a few days ago, and he said one of their biggest problems over the first three games was Jeremy Hill getting hurt. They had to run the ball, and they were still getting Michel up to game speed — they didn’t know what they had with him yet, and he was still banged up,” he added. “Now that Michel is healthy, they can run the ball and score 30 points a game.

“How do you stop it? Stop the run and go from there, something the Bears have been able to do this year. It’s a challenge, but if you take away New England’s play action, it changes up what they can do.”

On the other side of the ball, while quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has had a mostly positive career arc over the course of his second season, he can be a little jittery in the pocket against veteran defenses.

“The Bears are a talented young team on offense, and Trubisky is getting better — they’ve given him some weapons to fill in around him,” he said. “He’s young, but he’s done well for a lot of the season.

“The one thing you want to look for is the fact if he gets hit four or five times, his vision is going to change. He’s going to stop looking downfield and start watching the rush more. You see that with a lot of young quarterbacks, but it’s really the case with Trubisky. He doesn’t shake off those hits like (Pat) Mahomes, and he starts to run and get jittery as opposed to standing in the pocket.”

Two more things:

1. Bill Belichick does occasionally try and neutralize pass rushers by running in their direction. It’s not a hard-and-fast rule, but it could very well happen this time around. “(Khalil Mack) might be slowed a bit with the ankle, which will limit his reps this week, but if he can go, he’ll be gangbusters,” he said. “I know that when it comes to pass rushers like that, though, Belichick loves to run right at them. Wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a lot of that this week.”

2. Despite the fact much has been made about Chicago coach Matt Nagy being part of the Andy Reid coaching tree, while there will be a few minor similarities, don’t look for Belichick to simply copy-and-paste the game plan from last week into this week’s playbook. “I’ve always respected Belichick for not carrying some of that forward, even though there would be a natural inclination to do that, at least in this case,” he said. “He’ll scrap the game plan from Kansas City. Burn it. Scrub the computers and come up with some new thing.”