The odds were always against Terry Rozier reaching an extension with the Celtics before the Oct. 15 deadline, particularly in the wake of Marcus Smart signing a four-year deal this offseason. The Celtics did their best to engage Rozier this week and lock him up for what they believed was a team friendly value over the next few years, but the point guard understandably has bigger aspirations from both a playing time and a money standpoint. Thus, there will be no deal between the two parties ahead of Monday’s deadline, as first reported by Adam Himmelsbach of the Boston Globe on late Friday.
Given the fact that the Celtics have not signed a player on a rookie contract to an extension since 2009, this end result was always the most likely scenario. Rozier is poised to contend for the most minutes off the bench with Smart this season and that playing time (along with a strong performance) should help him push for a starting salary in the $15-20 million range next summer.
The Celtics won’t be able to afford that kind of a deal for the long-term unless they are willing to eventually willing to part ways with other key parts of their bench core over the couple years. That creates a layer of intrigue heading into the rest of this season and next summer as Danny Ainge weighs his options with one of his favorite players on the roster. Here is the closer look at what’s next for both sides and the options on the table over the coming months.
Trade remains possible but not probable for this season
The odds of a trade have always been low since the C’s elected to hold onto Rozier prior to the 2018 Draft after testing his value on the open market last offseason. The 24-year-old has proven himself to be a crucial part of the team’s rotation over the last couple years and that production likely wouldn’t be matched for this current season on the court in any hypothetical swap. Given the aspirations of Wyc Grousbeck and the rest of the C’s braintrust this year to compete for a title, any net loss on the court from a production standpoint would be tough to justify, even with the risk that Rozier walks this season.
Ainge has traded a key piece of his team during a contending run before (Kendrick Perkins says hello) but the circumstances are far different here. Perkins was set to become an unrestricted free agent and had a knee injury when he was moved back in February 2011. Rozier will be a restricted free agent this summer, which gives the Celtics the right of first refusal. They could lose Rozier if they decide not to match a pricey offer sheet in July, but they will at least get a chance to match, something that wasn’t guaranteed with Perkins.
The guess here is that if some team was going to bowl over the Celtics with an offer for Rozier, it would have happened by now. Potential suitors for the point guard don’t necessarily need him to compete this year. They know that the Celtics may not be able to afford him next summer so why would they give up serious assets now? Most contenders and playoff teams are set at the point guard position anyway and these would be the only motivated franchises to make a move immediately (barring some injury woes).
Rozier’s cheap salary ($3 million) for 2018-19 will always make him moveable, but the underlying factors make any deal for the rest of this year unlikely.
Odds of in-season trade: Under five percent
Restrictions on a potential Rozier sign-and-trade this offseason
The restricted free agency dance for teams around the league is a tough one, particularly when the majority of the league is expected to have significant salary cap room next summer.
After watching the likes of Jabari Parker and Zach LaVine earn $20 million annual paydays last summer, Rozier has understandably set his sights high for when he gets his chance to cash in during what should be a shallow point guard market.
The incentive for keeping Rozier for Boston this summer could come from a variety of fronts. The team might prefer him over Smart for the long-term or there is the possibility that he could be retained as trade bait for a bigger deal (i.e. Anthony Davis) in the months to come. The tricky part about that mindset though for Boston? The Celtics wouldn’t be able to include him in a deal for Davis until 2020 if he re-signs next summer.
The reasoning for that largely comes down to CBA rules. Once the Celtics go deep into the luxury tax and above the apron (which will happen in the summer of 2019), it will limit the C’s ability to receive any players in a sign-and-trade. The only way a tax team is allowed to acquire a player in a sign-and-trade is if they finish the transaction below the apron and stay below it all season. With the big salaries that the C’s will need to start handing out to retain their core next summer, they won’t be getting below the apron anytime soon.
This will factor into any hypothetical scenario in which Rozier is dealt and is also why the team was engaged this week about getting a deal done now. If an extension was agreed to before Oct. 15, the C’s could trade him after July 1st without any trade limitations.
With no deal in place, the road to moving Rozier (if he re-signs) becomes much trickier. A sign-and-trade will not be possible next July unless the C’s only take back draft picks in a deal. While Ainge could certainly go that route that route to ensure Rozier doesn't walk away for nothing, the inability to acquire salary in a sign-and-trade would prevent Davis (or any other player) from being sent back to Boston in a hypothetical deal involving Rozier next summer.
The Celtics will also be limited from dealing Rozier until January 2020 if he re-signs next summer and those restrictions will become even tougher if Rozier ends up signing an offer sheet that the Celtics elect to match. In that case, Rozier gets a no-trade clause for the first year of the deal entirely.
All of these restrictions put a trade of Smart as the most likely scenario in the case that Rozier is re-signed. The Pelicans will have to make a big decision on their superstar next summer when he decides whether or not to sign a super max extension with the only franchise he’s played for. If he doesn’t, the Pelicans should opt to move him before the 2019-20 season, a point of the calendar where Smart, not Rozier is on a mid-level type deal that is movable.
The other alternative for Rozier, of course, would let the point guard walk for nothing in free agency or fetch a draft pick for him. Given the guard’s emerging potential over the past year or two and Boston’s status as a contender, that is not an ideal scenario.
Other NBA News and Notes
- One player who did manage to reach an agreement ahead of the rookie extension deadline on Monday was Justise Winslow, who will sign a three-year, $39 million contract with the Heat, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com. It’s a good thing the C’s didn’t trade the farm for this small forward but he has had a strong bounceback preseason after missing most of last year with a wrist injury. His jump shot remains a question mark but it’s a wise investment for Miami.
- Other names to watch for possible rookie extensions over the next few days: Bobby Portis, Larry Nance Jr., Myles Turner and Delon Wright. Karl-Anthony Towns and Devin Booker agreed to long-term pacts already over the summer. Needless to say, the 2015 rookie class was a largely underwhelming one.
- Veteran free agent guard Jamal Crawford reportedly met with the Suns over the last couple days in the wake of general manager (and Massachusetts native) Ryan McDonough getting shown the door by the franchise. The team’s depth chart at point guard remains painfully thin but it’s unclear how much a shoot-first guy like Crawford would help the rebuilding franchise develop their young core of talent.
- Brutal break for the Spurs backcourt after losing Dejounte Murray to the year for a torn ACL. Derrick White just joined the walking wounded on Thursday night after suffering a heel injury that will keep him sidelined for up to two months. Patty Mills remains as the only true healthy point guard left on the depth chart. It might be tough for this group to make the postseason while looking so thin in the backcourt.