Cory Bailey, a Wrentham native and former Xaverian Brothers standout, will be providing some film analysis for BSJ this football season. A former captain at Fordham as an offensive lineman and long snapper, Bailey signed as a free agent with the Giants and played a season in NFL Europe. A former coaching intern with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bailey has had a long career as a college coach with stints at Dean and Iona before becoming the head coach at Assumption and, most recently, as the recruiting coordinator and defensive line coach at Coastal Carolina the previous six years. A former Patriots ballboy in the 1980s, Bailey recently relocated his family back to Massachusetts.
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The Chiefs are a formidable opponent and the best team that the Patriots have seen yet. As a note, North Attleboro’s Anthony Sherman returns home and is a regularly utilized weapon for the Chiefs. He plays fullback and more times than not is a lead blocker. However, he does have good ball skills and is a target in the passing game. I remember him in high school. He was special.
CHIEFS OFFENSE
The Chiefs are talented. They have game changers at all positions. Andy Reid has successfully morphed his offense into a combination between the old-school West Coast scheme that he grew up in, with the new wave run pass option / zone concepts that are more familiar to the college game.
Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes has taken the league by storm. I would best compare him to DeShaun Watson. However, in my opinion, he's better. He has a very good arm, is mobile, makes good decisions, and seems to have the “it” factor.
Running back: Kareem Hunt has proven to be a legitimate top level back in the NFL. He can run with power and can make guys miss.
Tight End: Travis Kelce is a matchup nightmare. He is the closing thing to Gronk I have seen yet. He’s big and physical but can run and is athletic. He will line up all over the field and must always be accounted for. Not much of a blocker. Although the Chiefs do prefer 11 personnel sets, Demetrius Harris has seen some time and is the second tight end on the field. He is also more of a receiver than a traditional in-line tight end.
Wide receiver: These guys are loaded. You can see a position group that was built with the same characteristics in mind. They are fast, shifty, and can create. Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill are top-echelon players. The Chiefs do a great job getting them the ball. You will see them in motion often and getting the ball as the cross the center. De’Anthony Thomas and Chris Conley show up as well. Out of this group, Watkins is the more traditional X receiver. With the development of Hill, I think Watkins' production is down a bit. However, his ability is legit. I’m really intrigued to see how the Patriots handle him.
Offensive line: Solid group. I actually think they are very similar to the Patriots. They are well coached, solid fundamentally, and do a good job playing together. This is evident in the fact that three out of the five starters (Duvernay-Tardif is out this week with a broken leg) have close to 150 starts with the Chiefs.
I do think you will see the Patriots get creative at the right moments with their blitz package. This o-line has showed weakness versus vertical pressure.
An interesting note... Jordan Tevey will most likely replace Duvernay-Tardif. Tevey spent some time with the Patriots.
Chiefs offense vs. the Patriots
The matchup .... this is a challenging week to be in man-free (single high deep safety) coverage, which the Patriots prefer. The Chiefs use of compressed formations, jet motion, Kelce alignments, and Mahomes' ability to run causes problems for what has become the Patriots lead defensive scheme.
I’m interested to see who is going to match up with Kelce ... will it be Devin McCourty and/or Patrick Chung? How are the Pats going to handle Hill and Watkins, particularly in jet motion? Much like Watson, Mahomes gets really dangerous when he gets out of the pocket either stepping up or getting flushed. He is at his best when he steps up or moves to his right. I think the Pats will control their edge rush and push the pocket while trying not to expand gaps.
CHIEFS DEFENSE
You can tell this teams head coach is an offensive guy ... the defense is scrappy and plays hard but not as talented as the offense. They are based out of the 3-4 and reduce into a tight eagle/eagle or bear-type look. In this look the objective is to cover up the center and reduce one of the defensive tackles to an outside shade on the guard to the tight end (tight eagle), away from the tight end (eagle) or both (double eagle). However, they play quite a bit of nickel. With that personnel grouping they only have two true defensive linemen in the game. They put linebackers at defensive end and get into an even (four-man) front.
They like to play man-type concepts on early downs. They will play some even coverage zones on what they deem to be passing situations. They are not a big blitz team and when they do, they typically bring no more than 5 and run zone coverages behind the blitz.
I was actually recruited by their defensive coordinator, Bob Sutton, when he was the head coach at West Point. He’s a smart coach with influences from Rex Ryan.
Secondary: This is an aggressive group. Eric Berry has been out with a heel injury. I’m not sure if he will be back, but he’s been a Pro Bowl player for them. I like Ron Parker. He’s very aggressive verse the run and is typically the single-high safety in man free. The corners seem to do a good job in coverage. The corner I’ve noticed the most is #22 Orlando Scandrick, the former Cowboy.
Linebackers: They're really divided into inside and outside. The outside guys often play more like defensive ends. Dee Ford is the best of the outside group and is a true edge/speed rusher, he could be a challenge for the Patriots offensive tackles. He can bend the corner and get there fast. Justin Houston has been a regular at this spot but is out for this game. Breeland Speaks will play opposite of Ford. Speaks is not the same time of edge speed guy that Ford and Houston are. I think he will be someone that the Patriots pick on. At the inside spot, Anthony Hitchens and Reggie Ragland are the main players. Bodownhillwn hill physical guys but struggle on backs out of the back field.
Defensive line: Small in numbers. Most of the game, the nickel personnel grouping allows for only two true defensive lineman to be out there. The group in general is made up of space eaters that aren’t really pash rush guys. Chris Jones is the most active of the group.
Chiefs defense vs. Patriots
The Patriots should score some points against these guys. I’d expect the Patriots to use a bunch of compressed formations against the Chiefs to force them out of press coverage. I think James White could have a huge game in one-on-one matchups against the Chiefs inside linebackers. I also think the Patriots will be able to run the ball because the Chiefs do get smaller in their nickel package. Julian Edelman should have a very good game as well. My guess is that they will clear zones for him and work all their option route variations. Gronk should also be able to do much of the same. The Chiefs are going to have to figure who they want to assign to him.
CHIEFS SPECIAL TEAMS
Hill is the punt returner and he is electric in that role. De’Anthony Thomas is the kick returner and he is also a threat to score from anywhere on the field. My guess is that the Patriots will try and avoid putting the ball in these guys hands.
One weakness I did notice is the Chiefs' punt protection. Several teams have been close to blocking punts. I’d expect to see the Patriots try and capitalize on this.
PARTING THOUGHTS
Overall, this is going to be a great game. I expect a high-scoring affair. The Chiefs have been able to capitalize on mistakes and have been very lucky in numerous situations. The Patriots will need to control the clock, keep Mahomes in front of them while neutralizing the home run weapons the Chiefs have. If the Patriots can prevent big plays and stupid mistakes, they will be ok. Brady, Gronk, Edelman, White and Michel should all have big days. I’m hoping Josh Gordon will continue to advance in the offense. I’m just not sold on his ability to get off man press coverage yet.
Playing at home and having 10 days to prepare will really help the Patriots. This could be a preview of the AFC Championship game!