DETROIT — We tried to warn you before the game: new Lions coach Matt Patricia had more information on the Patriots than any other departed defensive coordinator. And as a result, we would get an early referendum on this Patriots' team.
No, it wasn't pretty.
Patricia and his coaches performed an autopsy on these Patriots, and they completely disemboweled them in a 26-10 victory. Every weakness and every wart — especially on the defensive side of the ball — we thought was there and might rear its ugly head came under the harsh glare of a nationally televised audience. And it was, in a word, embarrassing. On both sides of the ball.
The defense allowed the Lions' first 100-yard rusher in 70 games (since 2013!) and couldn't get off the field. The Lions' defense — which was without their two best pass rushers (Ziggy Ansah and Kerry Hyder) — made like the Jaguars. They basically took Rob Gronkowski out of the game. And the Patriots were helpless to move the ball without their best weapon.
There were other issues too, and we'll get to those. But we all know what we saw on Sunday night. It was a Patriots performance the likes of which we have not seen very often. New England has now lost two straight. The last four times it has done that, each season ended in disappointing fashion:
In 2015, the Patriots cost themselves home-field advantage with losses to the Jets and Dolphins in the final two weeks, and eventually lost to the AFC championship game to the Broncos in Denver.
In 2012, they lost in Week 2 (Cardinals) and 3 (Ravens). The season ended in home loss in the AFC title game to the Ravens, a contest where the Patriots were dominated. That was the last time the Patriots were below .500 (they're now 1-2) after Week 2
In 2011, the Patriots fell in back-to-back games to the Steelers and Giants in the middle of the season. With one of the least-talented defenses they've ever had, New England lost in the Super Bowl to the Giants.
And in 2009, the Patriots lost to the Saints and Dolphins in Weeks 12 and 13, and then were bounced at home by the Ravens in the first round of the playoffs.
So history tells us it's not good news when New England loses back-to-back games during the season.
But what about this season? Can the Patriots rebound like they always have? How will they make up for their shortcomings? Let's take a look at the top three problem areas and assess how they will mitigate them:
Problem No. 1: The Patriots can't stop the run
Based on how the Lions came out and were content to check into runs, this was obviously the No. 1 weakness Patricia wanted to exploit. It was the No. 1 issue with the Patriots last season under Patricia, and he obviously didn't think much of the additions the Patriots made (Danny Shelton, Adrian Clayborn, Ja'Whaun Bentley) to correct it. The Lions ran on four of their first six plays for 21 yards. By the end of the first half, the Lions averaged more yards on the ground (5.4) than they did passing (5.0). It was even worse if you consider the short passing game an extension of the running game (NFL teams do) when they completed seven passes to backs and tight ends on seven targets in the first half for 44 yards (6.3 average).
Running the ball at the Patriots and taking quick underneath plays was, "definitely the plan," Lions tight end Luke Willson told me after the game.
The biggest weaknesses were the tackles along the interior — namely Malcom Brown, Adam Butler and Danny Shelton. All three were moved with regularity, whether it be with double teams or being turned at the point of attack. The way Stafford kept checking, it was like he saw the alignment and individual matchups and then switched the runs to target one person. That wouldn't be unusual. Just checkout Butler and Brown on these back-to-back runs on the Lions' second drive.
It's just nowhere near good enough.
"I just have to get better at playing double teams, obviously," Brown told me. "I just have to work on it more."
IS THE PROBLEM MANAGEABLE?
Not without help, and I don't know where that is going to come from. Lawrence Guy is solid against the run, so the other spot is important and has been in this scheme — the Vince Wilfork/I ain't moving spot. Butler ... everyone knows he's only a pass rusher at this point. Brown has been a huge disappointment this season. Vince Jr. he is not. Shelton should be much better than this. He's the best hope at improvement, because he hasn't quite bought into the two-gap scheme yet. There's still time for that, however.
Outside of Shelton's improvement, there is no other contender on the roster. The only internal hope is Vincent Valentine, who is on the practice squad. And he hasn't exactly been good to this point in his young career. The Patriots may have to think about making a claim or a deadline trade for someone who can stand up to double teams.
Problem No. 2: Gronk needs help
If the Patriots don't give defenses more to worry about, then they're going to have a hard time moving the ball. Throwing two running backs on the field, or going with Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson (who has been zero factor in the downfield passing game) at receiver obviously isn't scaring anyone because all three opponents to this point just doubled Rob Gronkowski on every play. At least against the Texans, Brady still threw to him. The last two weeks, he hasn't.
I asked Gronkowski after the game if he needs help.
"I mean, it is what it is," he said. "I've just got to figure it out myself. Figure out how to get open better no matter what coverage it is. It's going to take a little (while), but I feel like I have to adjust and up my game up."
That's admirable of Gronkowski to say that. But the fact is he needs help immediately.
IS THE PROBLEM MANAGEABLE?
Yes, but pray the rosary that Julian Edelman (in two weeks) and Josh Gordon (as soon as possible) get on the field, stay healthy and stay out of trouble (Gordon). The strong return of both for the balance of the season is now a necessity. I'm not sure just Edelman is enough at this point. With the state of the defense, the Patriots are going to have to score a bunch of points like in 2011 to mask those issues. That year, they had Wes Welker (122 catches), Gronkowski (90), Aaron Hernadez (79) and Deion Branch (51). It's difficult to see any combination of the Patriots matching those 342. Through three games, James White (75), Gronkowski (69), Dorsett (64), Hogan (37) and Patterson (27) are on pace for 272. They need help. Now.
Problem No. 3: Patriots can't cover in the short area of the field
This was the other main area that Patricia tried to target against his former charges, and the stats these last two games show exactly why.
On passes of 10 yards or less, Matthew Stafford was 22 of 25 for 168 yards and a touchdown.
Last week, Blake Bortles was 19 of 28 for 220 yards with a touchdown and interception.
Combined: 41 of 53 (77.4 percent) for 388 yards, two TDs, 1 INT (passer rating of 101.8).
Look for yourself:
The biggest problem area? The short middle of the field. Bortles and Stafford made their living there, going 15 of 19 for 189 yards. Those are the types of throws that sustain drives and bleed the clock.
"We’ve just got to do a lot better," said Duron Harmon. "We have to control the clock a lot better. We have to get off the field on third downs. There were times where they were just running up and down the field on us and we really couldn’t do anything about it. Then we had spurts and moments where we did do well and we did get off the field to give our offense a chance to move the ball but it’s just nowhere near consistent enough to where we need it to be not only a good defense, but a good football team."
IS THE PROBLEM MANAGEABLE?
This where Bill Belichick is going to have work his magic and patch things together over the course of the season, something they've done time and time again over the years.
Dont'a Hightower is a shell of his former self, to the point that he was taken off the field on third downs for Cyrus Jones. Think of that: Hightower, who has been one of the biggest playmakers on this defense, is now a two-down player and comes off the field on money downs. That is killing this team right now.
Elandon Roberts has never been a good cover player. At least Bentley produced an interception down the field today. He has hope.
Outside of that, they might have to get Nicholas Grigsby involved. This is where it would be really nice to be able to get something out of your special teamers, but obviously, the coaches don't have much confidence in Brandon King and Nate Ebner, or else they'd be out there. This has been a flaw in the roster for some time, and the Patriots did nothing to address it in the offseason. It's coming back to bite them. Could they make a deal? Yes, in theory. But they're running really low on cap space.
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