DETROIT — Let's be honest: Nobody is expecting much of a game Sunday night when the Patriots visit the winless Lions. Sure, given the current state of both defenses and the quarterbacks involved, it might be interesting for a while — and high scoring — but do we really think Tom Brady is going to lose to these toothless Lions? I didn't think so.
But if you think there's nothing to glean from this game — even in a blowout — you would be mistaken.
A lot has been and will be made of the fact new Lions coach Matt Patricia was the Patriots' defensive coordinator. He went against Tom Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels every day in practice for years. Patricia will certainly have some inside knowledge to give his troops about how to play the Patriots' bread-and-butter plays, which they run just about every single game. That will certainly make things interesting for a while. But at some point Brady will become an assassin, the Lions will revert to their natural form, and, in all likelihood, New England will pull away for a convincing victory thanks to its offense and, likely, its special teams, which have a decided advantage.
But for me, that's not the side of the ball that's most tantalizing heading into this game.
No, the main event will be when the Lions' offense goes against the Patriots' defense. If you're a fan who considers yourself learned, wants to be informed, and likes real-time data — especially if you've been a critic of Bill Belichick's personnel and scheme on defense — then you shouldn't miss a snap on that side of the ball, no matter what the scoreboard says.
This is going to be like Football Festivus.
Here's why:
People are missing the boat when they reference Patricia's intel on Brady and McDaniels. First of all, that's vastly overrated, because the two sides of the ball don't do a whole lot of (or any) joint gameplanning. The offense does its thing, the defense sets its own course for each week, and they really don't do a lot of mixing until see each other on Sunday.
The real intel Patricia has on these Patriots is his, a) knowledge of how Belichick likes to stop an opponent on important downs. For example, he'll know exactly what Belichick and Brian Flores will try to do on third downs and in the red zone (hint: double Golden Tate). And this is vastly more important to us observers of the Patriots' on-field schemes and personnel choices. And, b) only Belichick knows the Patriots' defensive personnel better than Patricia. In essence, he knows where the bodies are buried. Or, when it comes to this game, Patricia knows where the big plays and touchdowns loom on this Patriots defense.
If you were ever curious about what the Patriots' cyborg coaches (Patricia is the reigning champion) — they of the "We have to coach it better" and "I think he’s doing everything we’re asking him to do" or "Nobody works harder than (insert name of the 20th person given this accolade this season here)" and "He's working hard to get better every day" — really think about the personnel they're coaching, then you'll get your answers your answers on Sunday night. You will know exactly what Patricia thought about the individual players he coached.
This is nearly unprecedented during Belichick's reign. It has happened previously twice — sort of.
Three defensive coordinators left the Patriots. Romeo Crennel went to the Browns, but he didn't face the Patriots in his first season. Eric Mangini did in 2006 with the Jets, but that Patriots defense was a wagon — one of the best during Belichick's tenure — as it was second in points allowed, sixth in yards and top 10 in most categories. Still, the great Chad Pennington managed to throw for 306 yards, including touchdowns of 71 and 46 yards, in a 24-17 loss to New England in Week 2. Dean Pees was the Patriots' defensive coordinator from 2006-09 and became the Ravens' linebackers coach in '10. In a Week 6 (fifth game for the Patriots, after a bye) Baltimore led 20-10 — with Joe Flacco outplaying Brady — in the fourth quarter before New England stormed back in win 23-20 in overtime. But, that Patriots' defense wasn't very good in the midst of a rebuild and had a lot of new/newer faces Pees didn't have a ton of intel on.
Patricia has volumes of information on much of this defense, although it will be somewhat mitigated with the absences of Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung (concussions), and Eric Rowe (groin).
Still, going off playing time against the Jaguars and projected lineup changes, here's the depth of Patricia's knowledge:
[table id=145 /]
How will he use this to his advantage? Since the game is so early in the season — it would be vastly different later in the season as this Patriots unit takes on a different persona, and NFL coaches use 4-5 games as a reference point — Patricia probably sat down with offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter at some point in the offseason and told him the exact breakdown of the Patriots' personnel, complete with all its strengths and weaknesses. Even if he didn't do it previously (he probably did), Patricia would have debriefed Cooter last Saturday, Monday night, Tuesday, and Patricia would have heard the specifics of the gameplans on Wednesday and Thursday evenings.
Among the things to look for:
- We'll know one thing right off the bat: If Patricia doesn't respect the Patriots' pass rush and secondary, he'll tell Cooter to open it up and throw 50 times. If they're run heavy, Patricia feels the Patriots are still soft against the run.
- Do they attack Stephon Gilmore, and how do they do it? Patricia will know precisely the types of bunch sets that tripped up Gilmore early last season. Does Patricia still think Gilmore can get confused? We'll find out.
- If the Patriots play man coverage, watch where Matthew Stafford goes with the ball. Are they picking on a specific player, and in what area of the field? Are they content to just dump it off quickly to the backs to take advantage of the Patriots' lack of speed at linebacker? Related to this, I was told last season the Patriots took so long to play any man coverage because Patricia knew his linebackers couldn't cover man to man. If you play man in the secondary, you pretty much have to play man all over the defense. Patricia didn't think his guys could do it. Does he still feel that way?
- If the Patriots do play man, are the Lions using a lot of motion to get one player isolated in coverage?
- Does Patricia think Devin McCourty can still play man, or does he think he has lost a step?
- Do the Lions go right after Dont'a Hightower?
- Do the Lions keep any extra blockers in against the pass rush, or has Patricia told Cooter not to respect the Patriots "rush" and to air it out with scat protection (empty set or back with a free release)?
- If the Lions run the ball, who are they running at and/or running away from? What types of runs are they using?
