Sorting through Jimmy Butler's trade demand from a Celtics perspective

The NBA season may be starting with some fireworks in the next couple weeks in the wake of a report from Shams Charania and Jon Krawczynski of the Athletic that Jimmy Butler has requested a trade out of Minnesota. The 29-year-old swingman has just one guaranteed year ($20.4 million) remaining on his contract (the final year is a player option) and he’s reportedly willing to sign an "extension" with 1-3 teams on his preferred list, if dealt to those teams.

There are all sorts of questions to tackle on the Butler front from both a Celtics and a league-wide perspective. We dove into some of those over the weekend when examining the assets East rivals would have to throw at the Wolves in any sort of potential deal. However, with the likelihood of a trade increasing by the day now, let’s dissect some important angles, including the teams on Butler’s list, whether there is any chance the Celtics might jump into the bidding, where the Celtics shouldn’t want him to go, and why Butler’s willingness to sign an extension could change everything.

Q: Who is on Butler’s preferred list?

A: Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com indicates that the Nets, Clippers and Knicks are Butler’s preferred destinations. All three of those teams will have enough cap space to two max free agents next summer so all of those spots would be ideal spots for Butler to get paid in a big market and get some help alongside him.

Q: Do Butler’s preferred teams matter for now?

A: Not really from a Wolves perspective. If they decide to move him, they aren’t going to try to appease him. Those teams have limited incentive to give up a lot of pieces for Butler now since none are extended to be top tier playoff teams and all have the cap space to sign him this offseason. Why give up assets for him when you can sign him for free next summer?

The one counter to that thinking is those squads will make themselves more appealing to other big-name free agents potentially by landing Butler ahead of time though, so that might give some incentive to make a bigger push for the All-Star now. Around the league, other playoff teams (Houston, Denver, Toronto, Philadelphia, etc.) could try to make a play for Butler now as a rental (with hopes of signing him after the year) to improve their chances this season if the asking price is reasonable.

The Wolves should probably try to bring aboard some young pieces to put around Karl-Anthony Towns, but as both a general manager and head coach, Tom Thibodeau may be in ‘win-now’ mode after getting a taste of the postseason last year. What he actually wants out of a deal will be worth watching, similar to how the Spurs preferred win-now pieces (DeMar DeRozan) instead of future draft picks in the trade for Kawhi Leonard.

Q: Will the Celtics get into the bidding at all?

A: I’d expect them to do their due diligence but it’s really hard to find a trade here from Boston’s perspective unless they are willing to swap out an All-Star like Gordon Hayward or Al Horford in the deal (which I don’t expect to happen). Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum aren’t getting moved for one year of Butler and role pieces like Aron Baynes (no-trade clause) and Marcus Smart (can’t be traded until Dec. 15) would be needed to make the money work if a big salary isn’t involved. Since the Celtics wouldn’t be able to lock up Butler for the long-term (for the same reasons Kyrie Irving won’t sign an extension) this is a situation where Danny Ainge wouldn’t be willing to give up much in the way of assets, in my mind. Paying Butler max money after this year isn’t feasible either if you are doing the same for Irving, Hayward and Horford as well.

Q: Will Butler sign an extension anywhere during the year?

A: Highly unlikely since doing so would cost him tens of millions of dollars (the same situation that Irving is dealing with). Due to CBA rules, he could only get a 7.5 percent raise from his current salary per year if he signed an extension during the upcoming season. If he waits until free agency, he’s eligible for a full 30 percent max (roughly $10 million more per season than his current salary). Due to this, the assumption here is any kind of commitment to his new team would be of the handshake variety. No contract will be signed until next summer

Q: What do the Celtics need to watch for here?

A: They’ve got to keep an eye on this situation from a couple vantage points, starting with their competition in the East. The Sixers and Raptors have the pieces to make a serious run at Butler and that could knock the Celtics off their perch as East favorites, depending on what the asking price. It’s a risk for both teams since Butler could walk at the end of the year. Still, those squads might feel they could entice Butler to say and believe he could put them over the top now in the East.

The other worrisome element of this development is the fact that Butler reportedly wants to go to New York or Los Angeles. The rumors have swirled that Irving may want to team up with Butler in New York so this an early sign that there could be some smoke there. The Celtics aren’t going to do anything now because of that walk threat with Irving, but Butler landing in New York might make Danny Ainge worry just a little bit more about the prospect of Irving skipping town after this season.

Still, I’d be surprised if the Knicks or Nets offer up much for Butler for now. Neither team has many extra assets to work with so sacrificing anything for a guy you can sign outright next summer could be foolish. That’s a stance the Celtics will hope both franchises follow in the coming weeks.