Examining lineup possibilities: Why bringing Jayson Tatum off the bench isn't a crazy idea

This is part 3 of the BSJ series examining potential starting lineups ahead of training camp.

For Part 1 of the series (Irving/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/Horford) click here. 

For Part 2 of the series (Irving/Hayward/Tatum/Horford/Baynes) click here.

One year after the Celtics overhauled their roster in the summer of 2017, Brad Stevens will have a little more time on his hands for planning ahead of training camp in two weeks. Boston is returning all of their top 11 players from last season’s core, and that group is expected to be healthy together next month for the first time since last fall.

The impressive collection of depth creates several possibilities for Stevens to choose from on a night-to-night basis during the 2018-19 season. The coach showed a willingness to mix things up based on matchups through the season, something Boston Sports Journal reported early during training camp last year.

That trend is expected to continue this year, but there is still uncertainty about the composition of the default starting group. Will the Celtics stay with a traditionally big lineup or regularly begin games with small-ball? If the Celtics start big, which wing comes off the bench? Over the coming weeks, we’ll take a closer look at each of the possibilities to get a sense of what direction the team might be leaning.

Today, we look at what is probably an unpopular idea among Celtics fans: Sending Jayson Tatum, who has started every single game he has played in as a Celtic, to the bench. A closer look at why this move actually might make perfect sense for the C's rotation.

THE NO-TATUM STARTING LINEUP

PG: Kyrie Irving
SG: Jaylen Brown
SF: Gordon Hayward
PF: Al Horford
C: Aron Baynes

POTENTIAL POSITIVES

Strong wing defense: It may take a little while for Gordon Hayward to return to form, but it’s still safe to say he’s a better defender than Jayson Tatum at this stage of their careers. That may eventually change, but Hayward routinely guarded the best wings for Utah over his time there, and he plays with savvy and discipline, attributes that have made him a Brad Stevens favorite since his Butler days. Pairing him with Jaylen Brown on the wing every night will give the C’s a formidable 1-2 defensive punch against opposing teams’ scorers, allowing for plenty of switching. On nights Brown has to cover point guards, Hayward can take the top wing scorer while the C’s try to hide Irving on a lesser defensive threat. Assuming Hayward finds himself capable of tough assignments off the bat, there should be minimal/no dropoff from a defensive standpoint with him out there instead of Tatum.    

A No. 1 scoring option with the second unit: Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Marcus Morris and Daniel Theis comprise a terrific second unit but there is no clear-cut No. 1 option within that group. Morris would want it to be him, but that’s a hit or miss proposition on a nightly basis. Smart and Rozier will bring energy, but both guys shoot below 40 percent from the field. If Stevens wants to maximize his lineups, it’s probably a wise idea to put a clear-cut No. 1 option with this group, and that’s a luxury he can afford with Tatum. Stevens tried this strategy a lot last year anyway when pulling Tatum early from guys. It worked with mixed results (Tatum was passive at times), but that should change in year two. There won’t be enough shots to go around to please everyone if Irving/Brown/Hayward/Tatum all start, so why not spread the wealth and have one come off the bench? From a fit standpoint, Tatum makes plenty of sense there (while maintaining his 30 minutes per game workload and crunch time duties).  

Rebounding and frontline defense: The Celtics’ regular-season defense was at its best last year with Aron Baynes and Al Horford on the floor together. Baynes provides great rim protection in the paint, and Horford remains one of the most underrated defenders in the league. Pairing them together to start games will take some pressure off of Horford (against traditional centers) since Baynes is ready and willing to absorb some of that beating. Boston’s defensive rebounding also fell off a cliff when Baynes (or another traditional center) was not on the floor last year. Putting him in there at the onset helps to rectify that issue for the start of each half.  

POTENTIAL NEGATIVES

Shouldn’t Tatum be starting? There may not be a player on the Celtics roster that fans are more excited about than the 20-year-old rookie. He has also started every single game of his pro career and clearly deserves to be in the starting five. Given his guaranteed spot as a member of the starting five over the long haul, moving him to the pine for year two seems to be a little counterproductive from a continuity/development standpoint. It will also probably ruin any chance that Tatum has of becoming an All-Star. That won’t matter to Brad Stevens but it could to the player. For what it’s worth, the former Duke standout has already acknowledged he’s willing to come off the bench.

Will Hayward be ready for tough defensive assignments right away? Putting him out there with Brown will help him, but there are going to be a lot of nights that Jaylen is going to get point guard defense duties against guys that would run Irving ragged through pick-and-rolls. With the C’s looking to hide Irving whenever they can on D, this will put some pressure on Hayward out of the gate. That’s not necessarily a bad thing if Hayward’s mobility is back at full strength, but it’s not a sure thing to expect for the start of this season. Dr. Flynn acknowledged last week that mobility is probably the biggest concern with him as he gets back into form. For a team that was the top defense in the NBA last year, Hayward will have good backline protection with Horford and Baynes, but he would be thrown into the fire in this scenario.

VERDICT: Will we see during the season?

If the Celtics do elect to go with traditional big lineups (which I expect them to do fairly regularly), I think this alignment makes the most sense from a balance perspective. Bringing Hayward off the bench to ease him in might make sense in theory, but I can’t imagine the All-Star would be thrilled about that development after sitting out the full year. As a second-year guy, Tatum really isn’t in a position to complain about it. He’d get more chances with the second unit and could routinely push bench defenses as well with his versatile skill set, while ensuring Smart and Morris don’t shoot the Celtics out of games. It’s unlikely that we see this group on a nightly basis (Stevens might want to go to small ball when not facing a couple traditional bigs), but if Stevens wants to keep Baynes/Horford out there together to start, this is the grouping that creates terrific balance for both units.