Scout's Take: With uncertainty at start of regular season, coaching gives Patriots an edge

FOXBOROUGH — In hopes of going a little deeper when it comes to previewing Sunday’s opener between the Patriots and Texans, we talked with an NFC scout who has taken a look at both teams. One of the biggest takeaways from our conversation? He really hammered home the point that because there’s so much uncertainty at this time of the year -- with limits on padded practices, you don't really know how a younger player will respond until the regular season -- this is the time of year when smart coaches can provide a colossal edge.


“(Bill) Belichick watches so much tape and does so much studying, he knows that you can only tell so much about a team at this time of the year. There’s so much uncertainty,” he said.

“It’s more about scouting coaches and schemes than players. He knows schemes. That’s how he can get away with stealing some of these wins at this time of the year,” he said. “When other teams are sort of figuring out what they have — and the Patriots are sort of the same way — these are the sorts of games a good coach can win you.”

Belichick alluded to some of this in his Wednesday press conference, noting "I bet one-third" of the Houston roster has been turned over since the end of last season.

"Opening Day is always a challenge because (of) all the things that have come up between last year, this year and new personnel and so forth," he said. "The Texans have quite a few new players."

To be fair, when you’re talking about the Patriots and Texans, that institutional knowledge also goes the other way. There’s certainly an extraordinary level of familiarity between these two teams. But this scout believes Belichick’s familiarity, as well as the fact that New England will be at home, should give the Patriots an edge.

“On third and 6, when the Patriots are backed up, he knows what Romeo Crennel wants to call. He knows the type of blitz that’s coming,” said the scout. “Does he know if Romeo has the personnel to pull it off? That’s another question. Maybe not in Week One. But the play call, that’s another matter.

“A lot of time, Bill understands things because he has scouted the coaches, not just the players. ‘What does this coach want to do on offense and what does he want to do on defense? And what do we have in our playbook that can break those tendencies.’ That’s the key, especially at this time of year.”



But the simple truth of the matter is the first month of the season is a roll of the dice.

“The first three weeks? They’re a crap shoot for everyone,” he said. “Your starters haven’t played 60 minutes of football. I mean, they’ve played, but they haven’t gone four quarters,” he said. “You don’t know what you have until the ball is kicked off.”

In terms of head-to-head action this Sunday, there’s a belief the Patriots want to run the football, and build the passing game on the backs of play-action. On the other side of the ball, it’s protecting DeShaun Watson at all cost.

“Belichick wants to run the football. He wants play-action, and he wants to be able to open things up by leaning on play action,” he said. “For Houston, it all comes down to Watson. He has to be healthy and fully recovered. He has to be able to have faith in that knee. If he’s not healthy or he’s not completely confident, they’re (expletive).”