Robb: Investigating Terry Rozier's hypothetical trade market

Terry Rozier is going to get paid handsomely next summer, and unless Kyrie Irving or Marcus Smart is playing elsewhere, there is a good chance the Celtics won’t be the ones paying him. The pending luxury tax penalties make the prospect of paying two reserve guards over $11 million per year infeasible within the payroll.

Balancing that reality with the team’s desire to maximize their title odds for the upcoming season creates a pretty tricky balancing act for Danny Ainge when it comes to Rozier. Any time a team is in the market for a starting point guard in the next 12 months, Rozier’s name is bound to come up, which was exactly the case on Friday with the Phoenix Suns in the wake of the Brandon Knight trade.

We broke down on Friday why those two sides don’t look like a good trade match for the time being, but the question is worth examining as a thought exercise: What exactly would entice the Celtics to move Rozier now? The 24-year-old is a great insurance policy for Irving from both a health standpoint and in case he walks next summer. That fact, combined with his key role as a bench contributor, makes it clear that the C’s certainly aren’t looking to trade him after testing the market ahead of the draft.

What kind of trade would make the Celtics think twice about that stance though? Let’s examine what would be the necessary ingredients for such a move.

What the Celtics will be looking for

1. A player with the ability to help now: This is a pretty clear-cut requirement. The C’s would surely welcome future assets in any type of deal, but they aren’t going to allow themselves to take a major step back on the court in any trade right now. Moving Rozier for a future pick would produce just that, even though the presence of Brad Wanamaker would help ease the pain of a Rozier departure from a depth standpoint. While it might be tough to find equal value for Rozier from a production standpoint at point guard, the C’s would be looking to add some capable help at any position. However, finding a player that could make noise on the bench depth chart as currently composed will be no easy task, which makes a move like this tough to justify.

2. Future cost control: Payroll management is going to become more of an issue as the decade continues for this franchise. Irving and Al Horford (if he opts out) will be free agents next summer along with valuable role players like Rozier, Marcus Morris and Daniel Theis. Paying any of the role guys the market rate is going to be a big challenge with skyrocketing luxury tax bill, which heightens the importance of filling the bottom half of the roster with cheap labor. If the C’s can find a team that’s willing to give up a useful player that is under contract for the next two years at a reasonable salary, that cost certainty is something Ainge will have to consider. Boston pulled off this type of maneuver last summer when they dealt Avery Bradley’s expiring contract for two years of Morris. That move was made in part to open up salary cap space for Gordon Hayward, but the same overall principle applies here. In order for Rozier to be dealt, he needs to bring in value beyond this season, especially with the team holding rights on him in restricted free agency.

What kind of names fits that type of criteria? There aren’t many to pick from on teams that might be in search of their point guard of the future. Here’s a glimpse of some depth charts around the league at the PG spot.

Teams “set” at point guard in 2018-19:
Charlotte (Kemba Walker), Golden State (Steph Curry), Houston (Chris Paul), Memphis (Mike Conley), Miami (Goran Dragic), Minnesota (Jeff Teague), New Orleans (Jrue Holiday), Oklahoma City (Russell Westbrook), Philadelphia (Markelle Fultz/Ben Simmons), Portland (Damian Lillard), Sacramento (De’Aaron Fox), San Antonio (Patty Mills) Toronto (Kyle Lowry), Washington (John Wall), Utah (Ricky Rubio)

Teams that could use a point guard, but are rebuilding and/or have young talent at point guard already:
Atlanta (Jeremy Lin/Trae Young), Brooklyn (D’Angelo Russell/Spencer Dinwiddie), Chicago (Kris Dunn), Cleveland (George Hill/Colin Sexton) Dallas (Dennis Smith Jr.), Denver (Jamal Murray), LA Lakers (Lonzo Ball/Rajon Rondo), Milwaukee (Malcolm Brogdon/Eric Bledsoe), New York (Frank Ntilikina)

Teams that could use an upgrade at point guard: Detroit (Reggie Jackson), LA Clippers (Milos Tedonsic/Patrick Beverley), Orlando (D.J. Augustin), Phoenix (?????)

A couple of possibilities that might be worth thinking about for Boston that also fits their criteria:

Jonathan Simmons (Orlando Magic): The Magic swingman is a good value at $6 million per year and averaged over 13 points per game last year in Orlando. He’s under contract through 2019-20 and would be a nice replacement for Marcus Morris next year once his contract expires. However, it’s tough to see him getting many minutes while battling the likes of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward for playing time most nights. He could help for depth purposes, but Rozier is more valuable in the interim to the C’s.

Caris LaVert (Brooklyn Nets): The 24-year-old is dirt cheap (earning a total of $4.3 million over the next two years before becoming a restricted free agent). He lacks consistent 3-point range, but he’s a great slasher and a versatile wing who can check both guards and small forwards from a defensive standpoint. The problem for the Celtics is that the Nets may have their eyes on a bigger fish than Rozier for next summer with their salary cap room. Trading for Rozier means you are going to have to pay him, and the Nets would probably prefer to spend their big money elsewhere given how much rebuilding they have to do. They also still have D’Angelo Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie at point guard, though Rozier projects to be better than both.

An overall shortage of candidates/teams that fit the criteria

I could go over some more names here, but the truth is there aren’t many matches for trade partners due to the depth of the point guard position. Most teams aren’t going to trade rookies (and their four years of team control) for Rozier and there are few other realistic options when you scour rosters. That fact is why the C’s are going to struggle to get proper value for Rozier in any hypothetical deal. His value to the C’s right now (both on the court and as insurance for Irving) far surpasses his worth to most other teams. Good teams have good point guards already. Bad ones aren’t going to break the bank for a soon-to-be free agent. Other franchises also realize that the C’s probably won’t be able to pay him after this season ends, so they’ll be hesitant to match what’s likely to be a high asking price.

Verdict

Rozier’s situation means that Ainge will keep listening when teams call about the fourth-year guard ahead of or during the coming season. Given the variables involved, it’s hard to find a match coming together that makes sense for both sides. The C’s best move (barring an overpay) is to let things play out, and take advantage of Rozier’s talents while they have him. That’s where we are likely headed.