Following Sunday's 2-0 defeat to DC United, the Revolution remain four points out in the Eastern Conference playoff race with 10 matches to play. In theory, that’s plenty of time for The Boys In Blue to salvage something of this 2018 season.
But realistically, it might be too late to make the postseason, marking a three-year absence from November football.
So far, the Revs have played 24 matches in the league, and that is generally the norm at this point. There are, however, a couple of outliers — and they are all teams surrounding New England in the Eastern Conference table.
Sixth-place Montreal, for instance, has already played 26 matches as of this weekend, with eight remaining; four at Stade Saputo, four away, including the season finale at Gillette. Surging DC United, thanks to the delayed opening of Audi Field, have only played 22. So while the Revs have two matches in hand on L’Impact, DC has four matches in hand on Montreal.
For your convenience, here is how the other teams in the hunt for playoff contention stack up against the Revs, fixture list-wise, along with the Revs' slate.
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Winnable Games/Six-pointers
It’s hard to play any game on paper, for the mere fact that anything can happen in a league which boasts its parity. However, we can look at the teams, their current run of form, along with the opponents’… maybe add in home/away factors (sometimes that's totally irrelevant), as well as impact players, and it's pretty easy to figure things out.
At least that's what we're thinking.
(Quick aside: of course, if Bastian Schweinsteiger were truly an impact player for Chicago, why have the Fire lost eight in a row in the league and nine of 10 in both competitions since July 7? Things to ponder, like do European stars truly make a difference.)
I happen to think that the Top Four spots in the East are pretty much locked down in their current order: Atlanta, Red Bulls, NYC, and Columbus. I went through all their remaining matches, looked into my crystal ball (which is, no lie, an empty Sam Summer bottle), and I believe that's the order of finish.
But like we said, that means there are two spots up for grabs. Here are the teams in contention.
Philadelphia (10-11-3, 33 points, 5th East) is at 24 league matches played. Five matches remain at home, including this Saturday vs. the Revs. Philly also has a US Open Cup Final to play on Sept. 26 that we're taking into account.
Three of the remaining matches are tremendous six-pointers for the Union (vs. Revs Saturday, at DC Aug. 29, vs. Montreal Sept. 15), and outside of those three, we spy three other winnable games that’ll be uber-important that the Union play their best football and take all three points: at Orlando (Sept. 1), at Columbus (Sept. 29), and vs. Minnesota United (Oct. 6). Getting to 45 points should be Philadelphia’s goal, and it’s indeed achievable; in fact, I think they do three better. It’s quite possible Philly has its playoff life locked in by the Ides of September. If that happens, it’ll be down to one playoff spot, with four teams truly vying for it. There is also the fact that because of Philly’s success in the Open Cup, the Union will play five matches in 14 days from Sept. 15 to Sept. 29, including the Open Cup Final in Houston. It’s an immense slate with three road matches, one of which will be for a trophy and continental football in the 2019 CONCACAF Champions League.
Montreal (10-13-3, 33 points, 6th) are at 26 matches played, with plenty of rest between games the rest of the way.
L’Impact are, in a way, a conundrum. We believe that Montreal will be the most rested side down the stretch, seeing as it plays once a week for the rest of the season while teams like DC play three matches a week three times. None of their remaining eight are against the West, and six of eight are against teams in the Top 8 in the East. This weekend against Toronto is the tell: a result against the Reds, and possibly Montreal makes a push to hold off DC United or New England for the sixth playoff spot. Will that happen is anyone’s guess. (I don't think it makes a difference, given that I think Montreal goes 1-7-0 the rest of the way. Rest, schmest.)
New England (7-9-8, 29 points, 7th) is at 24 matches played. Thanks to a home-heavy front half of the schedule, the Revs play six of their final 10 on the road, including two long road trips to LAFC and Real Salt Lake.
Consider this bulletin board material: 10 matches remain for The Boys In Blue, and I’m sorry to say that I only see 10 points from those matches — and that’s being optimistic, especially with the Revs’ current run of form. I can see wins against Chicago, Real, and Montreal. I would have said 12 points given Orlando is on the remaining matches, but the way New England dropped two points against them a few weeks ago still fresh in our minds... even with a win against the Lions, that would put the Revolution at 42 points, and I don’t think that would be enough; I think it falls short by seven points. If New England can steal points against the big teams remaining, they may sneak in. Again, that’s being optimistic, given the recent run.
DC United (7-9-6, 27 points, 8th) are at 22 matches played, and will play nine of its remaining 12 matches at home. Its three road games are quick trips to New York/New Jersey, and to Chicago.
United are simply on a roll right now. DC has won three straight and is positively surging with confidence, but their remaining 12 games aren’t exactly cakewalks, even with a star of Wayne Rooney’s caliber in the squad. Like we said, DC plays four additional matches than Montreal and two more than everyone else in contention. Over the next two weeks, we should see whether or not they have postseason credentials, given that three of the next four United matches are against top competition in the East (Red Bulls, Atlanta, NYC). They also have a match against Philly on Aug. 29. Three of the remainder are against Chicago and Minnesota, so those three should be easy nine points for the Black and Red. But I think they get plenty more.
Toronto FC (6-12-6, 24 points, 9th) is at 24 matches played, with six of its remaining 10 matches being played at home, including a Sept. 29 date against the Revolution. TFC also has four against Western Conference opposition, the most of any team in the hunt for a spot. Also something to keep in mind: Toronto has already qualified for next year's Champions League thanks to winning the Canadian Championship last week.
The defending champions also have 10 remaining, but they have some winnable matches given they play six at home. They have one trip West to Portland, but even if that washes out, winning just their home games should be enough to push a team out of the sixth playoff spot. But I don't think that happens: their play at BMO this season hasn’t exactly been stellar (the extra football at the beginning of the season with the Champions League didn't help matters, either), and that may be the tipping point for the Reds. Toronto hosts Montreal this weekend.
PROGNOSTICATING (a.k.a. Going Out On A Sturdy Limb)
And with the prognosticator hat on, here is how Sweens feels the Eastern Conference will shake out after play on Oct. 28 (current point totals in parenthesis):
- Atlanta United (51) -- 74, finishes 7-0-2
- Red Bulls (48) -- 72, finishes 7-0-3
- NYCFC (47) -- 63, finishes 4-2-3
- Columbus (39) -- 56, finishes 4-2-2
- DC United (27) -- 56, finishes 9-1-2
- Philadelphia (33) -- 48, finishes 5-2-3
------------------------------------------ - New England (29) -- 39, finishes 3-6-1
- Montreal (33) -- 36, finishes 1-7-0
- Toronto (24) -- 32, finishes 2-6-2
- Orlando City (23) -- 25, finishes 0-8-2
- Chicago (23) -- 24, finishes 0-7-1