Why the Celtics may have one of the easiest schedules in the league

With expectations running high for the Celtics as the Eastern Conference favorites, the impact of the schedule on Boston’s performance during the year cannot be understated. For NBA teams, success will largely be dependent on varying effects of long road trips, back-to-back games, and overall strength of opponents.

How does the Celtics schedule look this year from front-to-back? What patches of the calendar can they take advantage of? Let’s take a closer look at the full 82 games and determine whether Boston has one of the easier schedules in the league:

October (7 games)
3 home, 4 road
1 back-to-back
Games against expected playoff teams: 5 
Games to watch: vs. Philadelphia, @ Toronto, @ Oklahoma City
Overview: The Eastern Conference favorites will be tested right out of the gate with a pair of matchups against the top contenders in the East in the first four days of the year. While an early visit to Oklahoma City will also prove to be a challenge, the rest of this slate is very winnable. The Knicks will be without Kristaps Porzingis on the second half of a back-to-back, while getting a shot at the Pistons early (a home-and-home) is ideal as they try to work their way into Dwane Casey's new offensive system. A 5-2 record seems very doable here if they can take care of business at home.  

November (15 games)
6 home, 9 road
3 back-to-backs
Games against expected playoff teams: 8 
Games to watch: @ Denver, @ Utah, @ New Orleans 
Overview: A surprise twist for this season as the Celtics head out west for their longest trip of the year (five games) in early November. It will be a bit of a nostalgia whirlwind as Isaiah Thomas gets a visit in Denver and Gordon Hayward makes his long-awaited healthy return to Utah in an ESPN televised matchup on a Friday night (Nov. 9). That trip combined with a pair of early contests against East playoff teams (Milwaukee, Indiana) at the start of the month will put Boston to the test over the first two weeks of the month. From there, things soften up a lot. Toronto and Utah are the only probable playoff teams left on the docket for the final three weeks of the November calendar.

December (14 games)
7 home, 7 road
1 back-to-back
Games against expected playoff teams: 6 
Games to watch: vs. Philadelphia (Christmas), @ Houston, @ San Antonio 
Notable: A pending trip to London left the Celtics crawling to the finish line at the end of 2017 as the team had to sandwich in a pile of games in November and December to make up for the long rests on both ends of the trip. The December schedule in 2018 is far more relaxing, with just one back-to-back and a three-day and four-day rest tucked into the schedule. The big challenges come at the end of the month after some potential practice time as the Bucks, Sixers, Rockets and Spurs are all on the schedule in a 10-day period.  

January (15 games)
11 home, 4 road
2 back-to-backs
Games against expected playoff teams: 6 
Games to watch: vs. Indiana, vs. Toronto, vs. Golden State 
Notable: If the Celtics are going to build up a sizable lead in the East, this is the month for them to do it. They will be playing over 70 percent of their games at home and 40 percent of their total contests against projected playoff teams. Almost all of those tough matchups will come at the Garden as only one road opponent (Miami) is expected to be a .500 team. The Raptors and Warriors will prove to be nice measuring stick matchups, but this is a slate that the C's should dominate. They won't find a month with lighter volume and quality of opponents for the rest of the year.

February (11 games)
5 home, 6 road
2 back-to-backs
Games against expected playoff teams: 7 
Games to watch: vs. Oklahoma City, vs. LA Lakers, vs. LA Clippers 
Notable: Super Bowl week won't just be a big one on the football front, as the C's host an afternoon matinee at the Garden against OKC, before getting their first visit by King James in a Lakers uniform. Those contests should prove to be hot tickets, and the week will be capped off by a visit by the Clippers on a rare Saturday night game at TD Garden. A pre All-Star break trade deadline (Feb. 9) will come into play for once again, but the Celtics won’t have much time to practice at home if they do make any deals, as they’ll be playing three straight road games to start off the second half of the year, including trips to Milwaukee and Toronto. 

March (15 games)
7 home, 8 road
3 back-to-backs
Games against expected playoff teams: 8 
Games to watch: @ Golden State, @ LA Lakers, vs. Denver
Notable:  The Celtics will spend a large chunk of March on airplanes, since their first four road games will all come against Western Conference teams. Fatigue generally starts to become a major fact at this stage of the season, so the timing of three back-to-backs in March isn't exactly ideal for rest management purposes. Finally, all eyes will be on Thomas on Mar. 18 as he finally gets his tribute video in the Garden (assuming he is still healthy and on the Nuggets). 

April (5 games)
2 home, 3 road
0 back-to-backs
Games against expected playoff teams: 4 
Games to watch: @ Miami, @ Indiana, @ Washington
Notable: While there won't be heavy volume over the final two weeks of the season, a schedule chalk full of East playoff teams could make resting guys tricky down the stretch for Brad Stevens. The vast majority of these teams could still be fighting for seeding, although none are expected to be in contention for the top spot in the East. The question is whether Boston will have the No. 1 seed wrapped up by then against the likes of Toronto and Philadelphia, because if not, they will have their work cut out for them against quality opponents on the road. No back-to-backs will make spacing out the rest a bit easier though for veterans.  

Takeaways:

With the extended rest calendar and fewer back-to-backs than ever, there are far fewer hectic sections of the schedule this year compared to last year's loaded slate in the first three months ahead of the London trip. Boston also catches a break due to the fact that two of the four Eastern Conference opponents they have to play three times (Orlando, Chicago, Washington, Milwaukee) are expected to be playoff teams.

With just six projected playoff opponents in both December and January, the C's are set up to have the easiest schedule in the league ahead of the All-Star break, thanks to a subpar Eastern Conference and a favorable draw. They will get tested down the stretch with a west coast swing and a tough slate in April, but the odds look good that they can build some separation for themselves in the East over the first few months of the year. That could give Brad Stevens a good chance to make sure his veteran stars are well rested down the stretch.