Marcus Smart's new contract looks very similar to another ex-Celtic's deal

The Celtics had all kinds of leverage over Marcus Smart at their disposal in free agent negotiations this month, but in the end, they decided not to use it. The two sides agreed to a four-year, $52 million deal last week to ensure the Celtics had one of the deepest backcourts in the league next year.

On the surface, the Celtics deal looks like a bit of an overpay, given the market circumstances. Boston was essentially bidding against themselves on Smart last week once most potential suitors with cap room came off the board. The Celtics eventually softened their negotiating stance and offered a little bit more than Smart turned down in the fall, according to a league source. That was enough to seal the deal in a tough market.

“He wanted to get a deal that he felt was reasonable,” Smart’s agent Happy Walters told Bostonsportsjournal.com last week. “I think it’s a good contract for both parties. It’s certainly a tradeable contract if it ever needs to be. Hopefully, it won’t be. Marcus feels really good about it and is excited. Danny and Wyc made the extra effort to get it done and go into the tax. I think everyone appreciates it.”

While the Celtics have let a number of their restricted free agents walk away to other teams, such as Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger, over the past couple seasons for various reasons, Smart’s new four-year deal sharply resembles another guard that was re-signed under similar circumstances this decade.

The team caught some heat back in 2014 in the media when they brought back restricted free agent Avery Bradley on a four-year, $32 million pact. While Smart’s average annual value ($13 million) is far higher in his new deal than Bradley's ($8 million), it’s very interesting to note just how close the terms of both deals are in value when calculating them as a percentage of the salary cap. When comparing deals given out several years apart, cap percentage is the most accurate method to use.

Bradley: Four years, $32 million (AAV = 12.6 percent of salary cap in 2014-15 ($63 million))
Smart: Four years, $53 million (AAV = 12.6 percent of salary cap in 2018-19 ($101.9 million))

The similarities also are in place with the overall structures of the contracts. Both deals start out as 11.4 percent of the salary cap in year one of the pacts and continue with raises between seven and eight percent for each season of the pact.

The question that will be essential for the Celtics as the years' progress is whether Smart’s deal remains as appealing of a contract asset as Bradley's did over time. The current Clipper turned into a valuable trade chip over the life of the deal, thanks to his improvement as a player and a skyrocketing NBA salary cap that quickly outpaced the annual raises in his deal. Notice how much smaller of a chunk that Bradley’s deal took of the salary cap by year three and four in the breakdown below.

Bradley’s contract

2014-15: $7.1 million (11.4 percent of cap)
2015-16: $7.7 million (11 percent  of cap)
2016-17: $8.3 million (8.8 percent of cap)
2017-18: $8.8 million (8.8 percent of cap)

Ultimately, the Celtics got a terrific return with just one year remaining on the Bradley deal (two years of Marcus Morris on a bargain deal). Based on future cap projections, Smart’s deal isn’t projected to become as much of a bargain by year four. Instead, it’ll stay relatively flat from a percentage standpoint.

Smart's contract

2018-19: $11.7 million (11.4 percent of cap)
2019-20: $12.6 million (11.5 percent of projected cap)
2020-21: $13.4 million (11.6 percent of projected cap)
2021-22: $14.3 million (11.7 percent of projected cap)

Paying a role player on a championship contender just over 11 percent of the salary cap is a reasonable figure. Smart’s shooting numbers have been brutal for four years running now, but the team has been consistently better when he’s on the floor in both the regular season and the postseason. That’s a big part of the reason the team was willing to bend a little bit in negotiations to get him to agree to a long-term deal.

Still, there’s no hiding the fact that it is far from a sure thing that Smart will finish this contract in green. The Celtics don’t necessarily need to make another blockbuster deal in order to win their next title, but if they decide to make one in the next year or two, there’s a good chance that Smart will be involved for salary matching purposes. The possibility also remains the team could elect to re-sign Terry Rozier next summer and move Smart to a suitor with cap room to help balance the books.

One of the keys for the Celtics to maximize their upcoming title window is ensuring that this Smart deal remains, at worst, a neutral asset over the next couple years. It will be tough for it to age as well as Bradley’s did in the absence of a excessive cap hike, but the Celtics need Smart to keep improving as he enters his fifth season at 24 years of age.

Most of his offensive stats showed little to no improvement from outside shooting to turnover rate and that’s a trend that can’t continue as he enters his prime. Smart may never become an above-average offensive player, but he needs to become more efficient as the years progress. Otherwise, this contract could turn into a burden down the road, which would separate it from what Bradley's deal became.