What's the contractual holdup between the Patriots and Sony Michel?

On Tuesday, we learned the Jaguars signed Taven Bryan, the 29th overall pick in the 2018 draft. The details of the signing further illustrate the impact the Rashaad Penny deal had on teams like the Patriots signing who are in the process of signing the picks in the lower half of the first round like running back Sony Michel.

Penny's deal is an outlier in terms of how much of his 2021 salary is fully guaranteed. Penny signed his deal on May 16. It has taken over two months for Bryan, the player selected two slots after him to reach an agreement. (Bryan will have $704,885 of his 2021 $2,864,767 salary fully guaranteed or 37.8 percent.)

This first table lists the players selected in the lower half of the 2017 draft.



[table id=66 /]

The following table lists the players selected in the same positions of the 2018 draft.

[table id=72 /]

As you can see from the above two tables, Penny has been the only player drafted in the first round to have a smaller percentage of his fourth-year salary fully guaranteed when compared to the amount received for the player drafted in the same slot in the 2017 draft.

Michel's 2021 salary will be $1,792,731. It appears the delay in signing him has been over what percentage of his 2021 salary will be fully guaranteed. However, the Bryan signing now gives Michel's representatives and the Patriots a more realistic ceiling than Penny's deal. I expect Michel's representatives and the Patriots to split the difference between Bryan's deal and Jackson's deal, and I fully expect Michel to be signed before the Patriots rookies report to training camp on July 22.

My prediction is 30 percent of Michel's 2021 salary -- or $573,674 -- will end up being fully guaranteed. I'm extremely confident Michel's guarantee percentage will be greater than Jackson's and Foster's, and the percentage increase will be more in line with Bryan's than Penny's.

Why do teams haggle over the fully guaranteed amount? To further limit their risk. The guarantee comes with an offset decreasing the amount of cash that the team will have to pay the waived player. Let's say the Patriots waive Michel in 2021 and his guaranteed salary is $570,000. If another team then pays Michel $750,000, the minimum salary for a player with three years of experience, New England will then receive a credit on its 2022 cap.

Answering some logical follow-up questions:

Question: How much cap space will the Patriots have after signing Michel?

Answer: My current salary cap space number is $10,019,148. If no transactions affecting their salary cap space number occur before Michel signs, New England's salary cap space number after Michel signs will be $8,898,840.

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