The theme of NBA free agency in 2018 for most players has been kicking the can to next summer. Only a handful of franchises had meaningful salary cap room this July and most used it quickly on one or two players. That left a fairly talented player pool left to fight it with little leverage over interested suitors, the majority of which had just mid-level money ($8.4 million) to spend.
Smart franchises had been trying to get mid-tier players to sign long-term deals at team-friendly prices, but agents have balked at those kinds of pacts in the past couple of weeks. While long-term security can be useful for some types of players, it also minimizes future earning potential for a longer window. Look no further than Isaiah Thomas’ deal with the Phoenix Suns in 2015 (4 years, $26 million) for the kind of pitfalls that come with that type of arrangement.
Instead, 2018 free agents have been betting on themselves with short-term deals at an extremely high rate, with the hope that the 2019 free agent market will be much friendly. A look at the agreements that have been finalized over the first two weeks of free agency shows just how widespread this mindset has become. Out of 75 deals given out so far, only 15 players (20 percent) of the player pool have signed for three or more years. Out of those, four have been max deals (LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Chris Paul, Paul George) and the majority of the remaining pacts are considered overpays by several in league circles (Zach LaVine, Will Barton, Doug McDermott, Dante Exum, Ersan Ilyasova, Jusuf Nurkic).
Thus far, over half of the 75 players that have come to terms with teams this summer have agreed to just one-year deals. Here’s a look at the length of contract breakdown so far.
One-year: 41
Two-year: 19
Three-year: 6
Four-year: 8
Five-year: 1
A huge chunk of those two-year contracts will also end up becoming one-year pacts by the end of next season since they are full of player options and non-guaranteed second seasons. By the start of 2019 offseason, it’s entirely possible somewhere around 70 percent of the 2018 free agent class will be looking for a new deal yet again.
While far more teams will have additional salary cap room to spend this summer, the influx of talent on the market next summer could end up backfiring for a number of mid-tier players, according to a number of league sources BostonSportsJournal.com spoke with in Las Vegas the past week.
The problem?
There will be far too much supply for everyone to get paid what they want. The top names that hit the open market are going to get theirs first, meaning stars like Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard and Karl Anthony-Towns will eat up big chunks of the cap space in whatever spot they land.
After that, a secondary tier of players will be fighting it out for what’s left. The best of the bunch (Khris Middleton, Kemba Walker, etc.) will still get big deals but for a position that is as loaded as the guard spot in the NBA, there are only going to be a finite number of big deals to go around. That reality is going to put a lot of pressure on players to perform well during contract seasons in 2018-19 to help separate themselves from the rest of a crowded free agent pack next summer.
It will be interesting to see how agents recognize and handle this situation for their clients, especially those that are prone to injuries. Leftover free agents may not be getting the big payday they seek next summer anyway, so locking in some long-term security at solid money may be a better play for some of these guys. It will be easier for a guy like Marcus Smart to land a deal next summer as an unrestricted free agent in theory, but he will be battling with tens of other point guards to do. If he doesn’t show some offensive progression this year, it will only become harder for him to sell teams on his potential.
One other thing to keep an eye on as this situation looms is 2019 restricted free agents. Teams have the ability to negotiate an extension with them up to opening night this October to add onto their rookie deals. It might be wise for many of them to get out ahead of the pack of free agents next summer and lock in reasonable salaries while they can. Terry Rozier will be an interesting test case on this front. His situation will be partially dependent on what happens with Smart, since the Celtics probably can’t afford both on long-term deals. If Rozier is willing to talk about a team friendly number that is also tradable in the long-term ($12-13 million per year?) the Celtics might jump on that when they have the chance.
Since Boston won’t have cap room next summer anyway, this pending logjam is actually beneficial to them on the whole. They’ll have a better chance of retaining their own free agents for reasonable money and could be in a position to land appealing names at bargain prices with mid-level exception money after cap room dries up elsewhere. A big potential role combined with a chance to contend could open the door for some big names to take a closer look at Boston, as was the case with DeMarcus Cousins earlier this month.
The true ramifications won’t be felt across the league until next July hits, but a crowded situation is brewing with nearly half of the players in the NBA hoping to land a big payday as free agents. Don’t expect everyone to go home happy.
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- The Celtics guaranteed Daniel Theis' contract last week for 2018-19 and will fully guarantee Semi Ojeleye’s contract for next year by keeping him on the roster through Sunday.
- Jimmy Butler turned down a max extension from the Wolves but don’t judge anything by it. It’s the same situation that Kyrie Irving has with the Celtics. They can’t offer him a fair market extension due to CBA rules. He would have been turning down millions per year by accepting it compared to what he could get on open market next summer.
- C’s fans should be happy to see Jabari Parker walk away from the Bucks this summer for no return. He’s not worth the $20 million per year the Bulls gave him, but that’s one guy with potential that won’t be back for a top foe in the East.
- I really don’t understand why the Hawks took on Jeremy Lin and his $12 million deal for one year. They also got a second-round pick in the deal but they would have been better off renting out that cap space for a worse deal (and a better pick) given their rebuilding status. Maybe they want Lin for his international appeal to sell merchandise and attract interest in the team. That’s the only thing that makes sense to me.
- The Heat did well to bring back Wayne Ellington on just a one-year, $6.2 million deal. One of the best shooters in free agency at a bargain price.
