Will Celtics turn their attention to extending Terry Rozier in wake of Marcus Smart uncertainty?

LAS VEGAS -- While a couple more restricted free agents came off the board this weekend (Zach LaVine, Jusuf Nurkic), the Marcus Smart negotiations remained in neutral. The predictable stalemate still has time to get sorted out in the coming weeks, but it appears to be heading toward Smart signing a $6 million qualifying offer, barring him getting far more realistic with his contractual demands.

While the Smart waiting game continues, there was one other signing over the weekend that Celtics fans should take note of: Devin Booker signed a five-year, max extension with the Phoenix Suns. The deal marked the first rookie extension signed by a member of the draft class of 2015, a group that became eligible for an extension this week. Those three-year players are now free to sign a contract extension beyond their rookie deal for up to max money. Another name in that draft class? Terry Rozier.

If Smart is deadset on hitting unrestricted free agency next year by signing this qualifying offer, now may be the time for Boston to get serious on extension talks with their other young point guard.

The common theory among league executives I have spoken with in Vegas is that the Celtics

won’t be able to afford Rozier and Smart beyond next summer anyway. Barring a disastrous departure by Kyrie Irving in free agency, it just doesn’t make sense from a team-building perspective to pay two reserve guards well over $10 million annually when Boston has three max players on the books and a couple more that will be looking for similar deals (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown) by 2020.

While Smart may be stubborn with his stance in free agency after turning down a four-year extension in the fall worth over $11 million annually, according to league sources, there’s nothing to indicate that Rozier will share a similar attitude. In fact, after seeing a tight restricted free agent market play out this summer, the athletic guard might be a bit more willing to lower his demands and take some added security now. A crowded free agent market in 2019 (due to plenty of one-year deals signed this year) should create a tough environment for restricted free agents yet again, even though teams will have more money to spend. The higher supply in the unrestricted market should help keep demand down for role players and/or borderline starters like Rozier.

For what it’s worth, the Celtics don’t have an extensive track record of signing players to rookie extensions a year early. In fact, in Ainge’s 13-year tenure with the Celtics, only Kendrick Perkins (2006) and Rajon Rondo (2009) have agreed to an extension on their rookie deals with Boston ahead of the opening night deadline for former first round picks.

Ainge’s strategy on this front makes a lot of sense over recent years. The Celtics have not only been maintaining cap room since 2013, but they also haven’t had any “elite” prospects that have proven themselves worthy of big money (Avery Bradley, Tyler Zeller, Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, etc.) by their fourth NBA season.

With Rondo and Perkins, Ainge landed deals that ended up being extremely team-friendly for the long-term. Perkins was a raw prospect in 2006 when he signed a four-year, $16 million extension, but he developed nicely over the next few years and was a certified bargain for the final couple years of that deal as Ainge brought inexpensive pieces around him in Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.

Rondo was obviously a more established piece when he signed his extension in October 2009 (five years, $55 million), but he hadn’t fully turned into the triple-double machine and core piece that he would develop into for Boston during final years of the Big 3 era. In both cases, the Celtics had no need to preserve cap space and landed deals with minimal risk and good cost control. It’s safe to say both Perkins and (especially) Rondo regretted signing those deals.

The Celtics face somewhat similar circumstances with Rozier in 2018 to what they did with Rondo in 2009. They are capped out for next summer and have an emerging point guard that appears poised for a breakout. With a major luxury tax bill looming next summer, controlling Rozier’s expense seems like the savvy play in theory if Smart’s long-term future in Boston remains unclear. It would also give the Celtics another tool for salary matching purposes ahead of a bigger trade (ahem: Anthony Davis) down the line. That’s crucial for a team with limited movable salary outside of Al Horford, Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward.

Of course, any contract negotiations would have to be a two-way street. There is no avenue to starting for Rozier in Boston, but that wouldn’t necessarily preclude Rozier from staying in Boston over the long haul. Bostonsportsjournal.com spoke with Rozier on this topic at the end of this season.

“I’m not a selfish guy,” Rozier said. “Obviously, I don’t want to be off the bench my whole career. That’s the only thing. I’m not trying to push nobody out, I’m not trying to try to put pressure on the organization or anything like that. That’s not me.

“I like to win. I like being here. I like the organization and the fans. I love everything about the Celtics. If this is the perfect situation next year, I’m down with it. I like winning.”

The tougher question for both sides to figure out is in negotiations is what exactly fair market value for Rozier would be. Should the Celtics just offer him what they are offering Smart, or is Rozier worth a bit more? The word in Vegas is that Rozier likely has more value around the league than Smart (all other factors being equal), so the C’s would have to ante up a little more to convince him to sign. Here’s a reminder of what some other restricted free agent guards have signed for this offseason:

Zach LaVine: 4 years, $78 million
Dante Exum: 3 years, $33 million
Fred Van Vleet: 2 years, $18 million

There is probably a sweet spot for Rozier between LaVine and Exum’s number in the $12-14 million annual range from Boston’s perspective. There’s no guarantee that Rozier will take it, but it actually might be a wise choice by his agents to lock in that kind of dough after a breakout season. He might not get another opportunity in Boston like he did last season, and a down year coming off the bench in 2018-19 could deflate his value a good amount in a crowded guard market next summer.

The odds say something won’t get done with Rozier until October at the earliest, but this is an avenue the Celtics should consider exploring to lock in some cost control for the long haul in their backcourt.