As we inch closer to the start of Patriots training camp on July 26, there are still a bunch of loose ends with the club, including the relationship between Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and whether or not any contract extensions will be reached anytime soon (Brady, Shaq Mason, Trey Flowers).
One of the biggest unanswered questions — at least in league circles — is the status of Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots looked into trading the tight end prior to the draft, stood down once Gronkowski told Belichick that, despite his tasteless press conference on Patriots soil, Gronkowski was all in for 2018, and there were reports (in May, mind you) that a tweak of Gronkowski's contract was near.
Yet when the Patriots start training camp, teams around the league will be keeping track of Gronkowski's situation because they still think he could be made available at some point. One move or non-move will the indicator.
"Where's the restructure of his contract?" said one AFC personnel executive. "Until that's done, I think he's still available. I wouldn't be surprised if Belichick is going to test Gronk's buy-in with the contract."
Gronkowski has two years left on his contract. As our Miguel Benzan wrote in his article detailing the possible Gronk restructures, there are 16 receivers and one tight end (Jimmy Graham) scheduled to make more cash than Gronkowski in 2018. Gronkowski and his camp are well aware of this. In fairness to the Patriots, this is the contract Gronkowski signed in 2012, and his situation last season — when the Patriots added another possible $5.5 million in incentives — was a lot more unfair.
In March at the league meetings, I surveyed the scene on the possible Gronkowski trade market and recently revisited the topic with those sources and some additional execs.
What they're saying:
- Three of the five personnel executives I spoke with feel that Belichick is just testing Gronkowski's mettle and the tight end will eventually have his contract tweaked at some point and he'll finish out this season with the Patriots.
- The other two execs said they think the Patriots make Gronkowski play under his current contract. They feel Gronkowski put himself in this situation with his talk about retirement, and then his decision to stay away from the voluntary workouts. "I would be surprised if Belichick gave in on that," said one exec.
- However, the longer the contract issue lingers, the possibility increases that Gronkowski could become unhappy and trigger a reaction from Belichick.
- Tom Curran reported Gronkowski contemplated retirement last year in training camp. Gronkowski admitted retirement was "definitely" on his mind at the mini-camp and he wants something done to his contract. Is it much of a stretch to think Gronkowski could once again become disenchanted if he's not being paid what he thinks he's worth?
- This would be Belichick's test of Gronkowski's buy-in. Belichick could very well let the contract situation continue. If Gronkowski continues to do his job well — he had a rough stretch around the same time when he was reportedly contemplating retirement — then the extension will happen. If Gronkowski starts to slump again...
- If that happens, Belichick could deal Gronkowski. Remember, since Gronkowski was already available, Belichick has already contemplated life without his All-Pro tight end and was fine with it.
- From my March story: A Bill Belichick-friendly source agreed with my thinking that once a player makes Belichick start to contemplate life without him, Belichick starts to warm to being without that player. “He imagines you gone,” he said. The longer Gronkowski goes without saying he’s all in, the chances of him being traded increases, the source said.
- By waiting until after camp starts for a possible trade, it just about eliminates any chance Brady would pull a power play and threaten retirement. There's little chance Brady would do that once training camp starts. If the Patriots traded Gronkowski before the draft, that was a possibility.
- The third week in August is a rough deadline for Gronkowski's contract to get done. If both the Patriots and Drew Rosenhaus, Gronkowski's agent, are dug in on terms, that would be the point where the Patriots say, "Put up or shut up." For the team to receive maximum value for Gronkowski, they would have to deal him by the end of August. His new team would need to know he can get acclimated with their playbook.
- Logan Mankins was traded on Aug. 27. Deion Branch was traded Sept. 12.
- The Patriots, according to sources, were looking for a first-round pick in the April trade talks. They should be able to receive that. "Belichick will be able to find a team that thinks it's one player away and you know one of those owners will love the buzz that comes from acquiring Gronk before the season opener," said one NFC exec. Injuries could also make a team desperate.
- Unless something unforeseen happens (injury, etc.), the Texans are off the list of possible destinations for Gronkowski. 49ers, Rams and Lions lead the pack. Injuries would very much ramp up the interest from those teams.