What's a fair price for Marcus Smart's next contract?

It’s a tale as old as time. Young player hits restricted free agency and expects a big contract. Team doesn’t offer contract and waits for market to set the price. Young player does not like the lack of interest he’s garnering and starts fuming in the media.

That sequence could describe almost any year in restricted free agency for a few players, but it is increasingly the case for this summer. We projected a tough free agent market for Marcus Smart in free agency here at Bostonsportsjournal.com weeks ago and that has been the case for the point guard and several other restricted free agents. Just five days after Smart hit the open market, sources close to the guard are already venting to the Boston Herald about a lack of interest from the Celtics, feeling ‘hurt and disgusted.’

While this type of conflict and Smart’s people negotiating through the media was entirely predictable, the question now for both sides to answer is: how will they resolve this situation without too much bad blood boiling over? This will be a drawn-out process in all likelihood, as both sides dig in but the free agent market has been set for guards to a degree over the first few days of free agency. Where does Smart fit into that equation? Let’s take a look at how his eventual deal might fit in with the ones already given out:

Restricted free agents guards who have signed

Helps Smart’s case

Dante Exum - 3 years, $33 million

Zach LaVine - 4 years, $78 million

Hurts Smart’s case

Fred Van Vleet - 2 years, $18 million

No impact

Raul Neto - 2 years, $4.4 million

Overview: Exum’s deal is one of the more surprising pacts of free agency and is probably the closest thing that Smart’s reps that point to as leverage during this market. Exum, 22, has been injury-plagued during his first four NBA seasons and has very modest overall numbers (8.1 ppg, 3.1 apg in 2017-18) yet the Jazz clearly are betting big on his future with this deal. He’s got plenty of potential and good size (6-foot-6) for today’s NBA, but Smart has the much stronger on-court track record at this point of his career. His reps will point at this deal and say Smart deserves to make more than Exum. They are probably right on that front.

The Celtics are not going to respond to a single overpay though. They are well aware of the market realities right now. Only three teams left (Atlanta, Chicago, Sacramento) have enough cap room left to make Smart a big offer and they aren’t particularly worried about any of them making Smart a bloated offer. All of those teams already have young talent in the backcourt.

Van Vleet’s deal is a number that the Celtics will likely counter with when Exum’s contract is brought up. He was a Sixth Man of the Year candidate in Toronto, putting up better numbers than Smart all year long, along with some feisty defense (despite his small 6-foot frame). The 24-year-old does not have the lottery pedigree that Smart does, but he falls in line as the top bench guard contributor on a contender. The Raptors gave him slightly more than mid-level money and got an extra year out of it for paying more than they had to. The Celtics will be in a similar spot to the Raptors in dealing with luxury tax penalties, something the Jazz didn’t have to worry about while giving Exum the third year since their payroll is far lower. That makes Boston more likely to hold the line than go up to $11 million per year.

Update: LaVine had his deal matched by Bulls after signing 4 years, $78 million offer sheet with Kings. That was an overpay for a guy who is coming off a torn ACL and is a subpar defender. Smart's people will try to use it as a negotiating point, but it won't work.

Unrestricted free agent guards who have signed

Helps Smart’s case

Will Barton - 4 years, $54 million

Hurts Smart’s case

J.J. Redick - 1 year, $13 million
Avery Bradley - 2 years, $26 million (only one year guaranteed)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 1 year, $12 million
Tyreke Evans - 1 year, $12 million
Rajon Rondo - 1 year, $9 million
Joe Harris - 2 years, $16 million
Mario Hezonja - 1 year, $6.5 million
Marco Belinelli - 2 years, $12 million
Tony Parker - 2 years, $10 million
Lance Stephenson - 1 year, $4.4 million
Seth Curry - 2 years, $5.6 million
Elfrid Payton - 1 year, $2.7 million

Overview: Outside of Barton’s lengthy contract, none of these deals will help Smart’s case much at all for a big payday. The Nuggets deal with Barton was one of the first ones in the league to go down on July 1st and that’s for good reason: the shooting guard wasn’t going to get that kind of money elsewhere.

Incredibly, Barton’s deal is the only contract that extends beyond two years for unrestricted free agent guards thus far. Both players and teams are trying to keep flexibility in place for the summer of 2019 by agreeing to short-term deals. With a higher anticipated cap next summer ($108 million) and plenty of teams expected to have significant cap space, big spending should be far more common then.

In the meantime, some prominent names have had to settle for smaller deals. Redick’s salary almost got cut in half from last season. Bradley had to settle for only one-year guaranteed, albeit with a decent annual salary at $13 million. The Lakers overpaid Caldwell-Pope and Rondo for some reason, but those kinds of contracts won’t factor into Smart’s negotiations from Boston’s perspective. Restricted free agents can’t sign a one-year offer sheet (two years is minimum) with other teams, and those guys only those types of deals since the Lakers won’t to keep their cap space free for next summer. Evans put up monster numbers last season but could only secure a one-year payday too. Young role pieces like Harris and Hezonja serve as the floor for any Smart deal on an annual basis.

Other pieces still waiting

Notable restricted free agent guards still available

Rodney Hood
David Nwaba

Notable unrestricted free agent guards still available

Wayne Ellington
Isaiah Thomas
Nick Young
Jamal Crawford

Overview: LaVine and Hood are the main relevant names still in the equation here. They are more offensively-minded players, but they have put up bigger numbers throughout their career than Smart. If either can land a big payday from their individual teams, that could help Smart’s cause slightly. Otherwise, they are just a couple more names on a long list of RFAs that may have to settle for a qualifying offer. (Update: LaVine had his deal matched by Bulls after signing 4 years, $78 million offer sheet with Kings. That was an overpay for a guy who is coming off a torn ACL and is a subpar defender. Smart's people will try to use it as a negotiating point, but it won't work.

Can the Celtics and Smart find some middle ground for a long-term deal?

If neither side is willing to budge much, this story likely ends up with Smart signing a qualifying offer worth roughly $6 million and hitting the market again next summer as an unrestricted free agent. However, that is not necessarily the solution that either party wants.

The Celtics would be able to avoid the luxury tax for next season if Smart signs a qualifying offer (which would earn team millions with revenue sharing), but they would also be giving him a no-trade clause while doing so. That’s not an entirely ideal situation for Boston with the lack of movable salary that’s on the roster and the fact that Aron Baynes got a no-trade clause as part of his deal.

Boston’s front office may also want to take advantage of a tough market by signing Smart to team-friendly number for a couple of years of control. They could find a price that is higher than the market warrants ($9-10 million per year) that could also look good for the team in a year when prices go up for players across the board. Boston also might need that kind of money on the books for salary matching purposes if another star becomes a free agent target.

From Smart’s perspective, it’s enticing in theory to kick the can to next summer for a bigger possible payday as an unrestricted FA, but that also fails to recognize how crowded the free agent market will be then with so many players re-entering the market after signing one-year deals. There will be more money available then, but the fight will be fierce for all that cash at the guard position. There’s no guarantee a big payday awaits Smart in that spot, so he may be better off getting a couple years of security now and re-entering the market a couple years down the line.

The reality for the 24-year-old is that he is coming off a season marred by injury and some off-court issues. He turned down a sizable offer last fall from Boston, per league sources and he won’t come close to getting that type of money this summer. That has to sting.

Both sides won’t be in any rush to cave from their negotiating positions, but the middle ground is becoming more visible as the free agent market sets itself. A multi-year deal for $9-10 million annually could be enough to keep both sides begrudgingly happy. Otherwise, a qualifying offer remains the most likely solution.