NBA Notebook: Identifying realistic free agent targets for the Celtics

We all know the Celtics want to retain their own free agents (Marcus Smart), but what additional players will the front office have their eyes on across the association? It’s not an easy task to identify potential fits as free agency kicks off on July 1st, given the crowded state of the Celtics' roster.

To help us better identify what the Celtics could be targeting, let’s first look at the team’s current depth chart.

Guards: Irving, Brown, Rozier, Wanamaker, (FA: Smart)
Wings/Swings: Hayward, Tatum, Morris, Ojeleye, Nader/Free Agent X
Bigs: Horford, Baynes, Theis, Yabusele, Williams,

First things first: The odds are heavily in favor of the Celtics retaining both Smart and Baynes as free agency looms (Update: Celtics agreed to terms with Baynes on Sunday morning). Smart is a restricted free agent, significant cap room is sparse and it appears his potential suitors (Indiana, Dallas, etc.) will be spending their money elsewhere. Most playoff teams are set at the starting center position, so if Baynes wants to win and have a meaningful role somewhere, Boston remains the logical destination for him.

Bringing back both Smart and Baynes, and factoring in the looming signing of Brad Wanamaker, leaves Danny Ainge with very few holes to fill on the current roster. In fact, the only clear candidate to be cut from the 15-man roster for a free agent addition to that group would be Abdel Nader. Even then, it’s hard to pinpoint a serious area of need that can be addressed with the taxpayer mid-level exception on the free agent market.

So who exactly will the Celtics be going after on July 1 then? It depends on a couple of factors:

1. Do the Celtics have a trade planned or do they want to maintain flexibility to make one?

Needless to say, if the Celtics want to make a major deal for Kawhi Leonard or another star-caliber player, they will have to package several of their bench assets to make the money work. That kind of a move will make the mid-level exception crucial to fill in some of the holes created by a multi-player deal.

2. Do the Celtics like a current player on the free agent market for a similar price more than one of their own expiring contracts?

Marcus Morris and Terry Rozier are both set to hit the free agent market in the summer of 2019 and will be seeking significant raises from their current bargain deals. The Celtics could investigate moving one of these pieces in the summer months for future draft compensation, which would open the door for more playing time for a mid-level signing. Amid a tight free agent market this summer, the Celtics could lock in a player at a discount rate for multiple seasons by signing them with the mid-level exception. That could help Boston maintain strong depth across the roster over the long-term while helping to balance the books in the face of luxury tax penalties that will be looming as Ainge attempts to retain a contending core over the rest of the decade.

So what are some dream targets and more realistic ones? Let’s sort through the possibilities.

Full Mid-Level dream scenarios ($8.5 million): A trade would have to be made here to open up some extra salary/playing time within the C’s rotation to have a chance of landing these types of names.

Sharpshooters

J.J. Redick: The Sixers will have to renounce him if they end up signing a max free agent in order to open up sufficient cap room for the signing. There will be limited teams with significant cap room this summer so he might have to settle for the full mid-level somewhere, depending on the timing. Trading Rozier would open up some playing time for Redick, although a defensive pairing of Irving and Redick in the backcourt is a troublesome grouping. Still, as a sixth man sharpshooter, the C’s offense would be tough to defend.

Wayne Ellington: The Heat are the heavy favorite to retain him with Miami’s early Bird Rights, but they also are dangerously close to the luxury tax. It’s unclear whether ownership will go into that type of spending for a non-contender and that’s exactly what the Heat are at this point. Unless they can dump a bad contract somewhere, they might lowball Ellington, which would open the door for a payday elsewhere. Ellington’s age (30) does not make him an ideal target for rebuilding teams, but it’s doubtful he’d be willing to take a discount in perhaps his final chance for a big deal. He’s worth the money on a short-term deal if he becomes available to the Celtics at that price. Shooting 39 percent from downtown on 7.5 attempts per game makes him one of the best high volume 3-point shooters in the game.

Joe Harris (Update: Agreed to terms with Nets on Sunday morning): The underrated Nets guard has turned into an elite 3-point shooter (41.9 percent) over the past couple years in Brooklyn. The guess here is that the price will probably get a bit too high for the C’s to make a move on him, especially since the Nets have interest in retaining him and should have the cap room to do so. Harris hasn’t earned a big contract yet at age 26, so he’ll be looking for the best deal. The full mid-level exception may not be enough to land him, and even if it were, the Celtics probably wouldn’t want to move on from Rozier to make room for him.

Other intriguing options that probably don’t fit the roster as well: Will Barton, Tyreke Evans. Both guys are a little too ball-dominant for C’s offense, especially since Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward are better options to be high volume creators.

Scoring hybrid forward 

Rudy Gay (Update: Agreed to terms with Spurs on Sunday morning): The veteran 6-foot-8 forward could be an alternative to Morris if the Celtics are content with Semi Ojeleye taking on a more regular defensive workload off the bench situationally. Throwing Gay on the floor with the likes of Irving, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum and Hayward would allow for plenty of switchability and could give opposing defenses nightmares. Gay is not the defender that Morris is, but he’s also a far more efficient offensive weapon. The former UConn star also rebounds well for his size, which would be useful for an undersized Boston frontline.

Realistic taxpayer mid-level targets (for all or a portion of $5.3 million)

The Celtics are more likely to go this route due to the fact that they won’t have to worry about the apron or moving current salary to bring aboard one of these names. Finding playing time for one of these guys could be an issue without a trade, but some of them won’t be in position to make demands in a tight free agent market.

Sharpshooters

Marco Belinelli (Update: Agreed to terms with Spurs on Sunday morning): He’s a defensive liability as we saw during the Celtics-Sixers series, but the Celtics would have alternatives to keep him off the floor in bad playoff matchups. He’s solid bench depth as a 3-point shooting option (38.5 percent) that can space the floor for a second unit full of inconsistent shooting. If he’s interested in playing a role on a contender, the Celtics may be a landing spot for him (assuming a guard is traded).

Nick Young: He’s a one-trick pony on the offensive end with some locker room baggage, but he’s one of the better wing defenders out of this bunch. The Warriors seem unlikely to bring him back for their mid-level money, so Young might be available at a fraction of that price.

Doug McDermott (Agreed to terms with Pacers on Sunday morning): The Mavs renounced their qualifying offer to the journeyman wing already, so he is free to sign with anyone. His defensive issues are worrisome, but his outside shooting (40 percent from 3 in career) makes him a name to keep an eye on for extra perimeter depth. However, he could be looking for more of an opportunity than Boston given his age.

Anthony Tolliver: The veteran power forward has quietly turned into an elite stretch big in Detroit over the past couple seasons (41 percent shooting from 3 in 2017-18). At age 32, he probably isn’t worth spending the full mid-level on, but he would be nice end-of-the-bench depth with plenty of spacing ability at the 4 if the team elects to move on from Morris.

Defensive specialist

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute: The Rockets will want to bring back the defensive specialist, and he’s probably redundant in Boston with Semi Ojeleye offering a similar skillset. He’s worth a mention here though due to the fact that the Rockets will have their hands full trying to retain their other free agents (Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela) and not go too far into the luxury tax. If the Celtics need to use Ojeleye as a sweetener in another deal or move on from Morris, Mbah a Moute could be a low-cost replacement with a portion of the taxpayer MLE.

Standing pat option?

If the Celtics want to maintain their current rotation core, simply standing pat for the time being and not even using the tax player mid-level exception is an option. A player could be added with the veteran’s minimum to fill out the roster (in place of Nader), giving the front office the ability to go after a player later in the season. For instance, the Celtics could throw more money at a player bought out at the trade deadline with the MLE in their back pocket. That strategy helped Boston land Greg Monroe last February (with the disabled player exception), despite opportunities to use it for months.

Not using the MLE would also open up the possibility that the Celtics avoid the luxury tax this year. That’s not a priority for the team, per league sources, but could come in handy a few years down the road when Boston is expected to be dealing with the repeater tax (triggered by being in the luxury tax in three of four straight seasons). Delaying that clock starting until 2018-19 could save Celtics ownership some big money in the long run.

Prediction: The Celtics use the taxpayer mid-level exception after trading away a bench rotation piece.