Sorting through the Celtics' position in the Kawhi Leonard rumor mill

The action surrounding Kawhi Leonard has heated up in a major way over the past 24 hours.

Nationally, the Celtics have been pegged as "fully engaged" in trade talks for Leonard by Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com. Other plugged-in national guys like Marc Stein of the New York Times have indicated that the Spurs are ready to move on. There's also been a report of a Godfather offer from the Lakers, strong interest from the Sixers and local reports downplaying the C's willingness to part with valued assets (i.e. Jaylen Brown) for an All-Star with so many question marks about his future.

So what exactly can we decipher from the flurry of Leonard reports in such a short time span? After checking in with multiple sources throughout the league in the past few hours, here's a look at four takeaways from how this trade derby is unfolding and what comes next.

1. The timing of these Leonard reports is telling

It’s a big few days for the power players of the free agent market.

LeBron James has to make a decision about opting out of his player option by the end of the day on Friday. Paul George just opted out of his player option (no surprise) and is reportedly debating between returning to Oklahoma City and going elsewhere (LA, Philly, etc.). The eventual choices for both James and George during free agency could be influenced by whatever team lands Leonard.

The Sixers and Lakers are firmly in the mix for both of those All-Stars from a salary cap space standpoint. While the Celtics may not have any urgency to make a move for Leonard, the same can’t be said for the Lakers and Sixers. Recent national reports seem like an attempt by the Spurs (through the media) to get everyone’s best offer on the table now when the sense of urgency is high for other teams around the league.

Once James and George make their decisions, we could see the number of potential Leonard suitors in the market decrease for what could be a one-year rental. If the Spurs want to get the Lakers to panic and cough up the most assets, this week is probably when they are most vulnerable. The Celtics have more assets than everyone in this mix and clearly have interest, so they are being used as a threat to teams likes the Lakers, in my opinion. It’s hard to envision Danny Ainge being influenced by these rumblings enough to up his own offer, but the moving pieces involved could further motivate the Lakers to increase their trade package.

2. The one worrying Kawhi scenario of this offseason for the Celtics

From a Celtics perspective, seeing Leonard land in Los Angeles is probably an ideal scenario, based on other potential suitors. A Leonard and James-led team in LA would make an intriguing squad and would also clear a path to the NBA Finals for the Celtics for the foreseeable future in the East. Boston would only have to go through one of the West juggernauts each year and would be happy to see the Warriors, Rockets and Lakers beat up on each other every postseason in the meantime.

The only worrisome situation for the Celtics, in my mind, remains the possibility the Sixers make a strong play for Leonard. They have the assets to land him and also have the necessary salary cap room to bring aboard James or George (if they execute the trade for Leonard officially after free agency). It might make sense for the Celtics to up their offer a bit in order to prevent the Sixers from putting together that kind of super team.

3. It’s easy to forget how good Kawhi Leonard is

There is plenty of baggage that comes with Leonard from last season. He has injury question marks, he has butted heads with a Hall of Fame coach, and he was called out by teammates for not playing through pain. Still, it’s fair to say that Leonard is easily a top-5 player in this league when healthy.

He’s in his prime at age 26, is a two-time defensive player of the year and has an incredibly efficient offensive game. The small forward has also played some of the best basketball of his career in the postseason, shooting over 50 percent from the field and 42 percent from 3-point range over the course of 87 playoff games.

Refusing to include Jaylen Brown in an offer is understandable given the flight risk, but moving a few bench pieces, combined with some draft compensation, is a path the Celtics will continue to explore. Marcus Morris and Terry Rozier aren’t necessarily part of this team’s long-term future anyway, so they are well worth the sacrifice, even for a one-year rental. This may be the best player the Celtics will ever get a realistic chance to trade for over the next 10 years, particularly if Anthony Davis never becomes available.

4. All signs point to an eventual overpay from the Lakers

The intel I keep hearing around the league from the Celtics side is an unwillingness to discuss Jaylen Brown in any Leonard trade scenario for the time being. That leaves draft-pick capital (in a potentially weak 2019 draft) as the main draw of Boston’s hypothetical package, along with Rozier, Morris and/or Robert Williams.

Some combination of Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and future first-round picks should easily top Boston’s offer, and that may be a price that Magic Johnson is willing to pay since it comes with the backdrop of Leonard being happy to stay put in Los Angeles for the long haul.

Barring some friendly new signals from Leonard’s camp, no other team in this derby is going to be able to give the Spurs what they want and feel good about the All-Star staying with them long-term. The Lakers might be better off waiting a year and going after him without sacrificing assets, but the guess here is patience is running thin in Hollywood after striking out in free agency so often in recent years. The Spurs might end up getting a decent haul in this scenario given their circumstances, and if that’s the case, Boston’s pool of assets will have been masterfully used as leverage to help them pry some useful offers across the league.

For more insight on the Leonard situation, check out these recent pieces at BSJ:

Examining what could have been in the trade offer the Celtics made for Kawhi Leonard

NBA Notebook: Dissecting the hidden obstacles to a Kawhi Leonard trade for the Celtics

Big 3 Podcast: Debating a Kawhi trade, Kyrie extension and draft talk