Examining what could have been in the trade offer the Celtics made for Kawhi Leonard

With free agency just days away, the Kawhi Leonard saga is starting to take center stage again as teams position themselves ahead of July 1st. The latest ESPN.com report on Leonard focuses primarily on the growing urgency for the Lakers in their quest to land a star, but also indicates (to no surprise) the Celtics are one of four teams to have made a formal offer to San Antonio, along with the Cavs, Clippers and Sixers.

There is no word in the piece on the timing or the packages within those offers, but there are a few important issues to keep in mind from Boston's perspective when it comes to the pursuit of Leonard and how any offer would be structured.

1. Any deal with the Celtics and Spurs is highly unlikely before July 1: The salary matching that would be required (unless a star like Kyrie Irving or Gordon Hayward is included) would force the Celtics to include Jaylen Brown in the package and also push them into the luxury tax for the past season. That is simply not going to happen for reasons I outlined last week here.

The Celtics ownership has paid the luxury tax before, and they will certainly do it again in years to come. However, with the season now over, there is no chance the team would want to push themselves into the luxury tax for this past season in a Leonard trade. It would cost the franchise tens of millions of dollars to do that since instead of receiving a share of the revenue from the league, the C’s would have to pay into the revenue sharing pot.

The far more likely scenario is that any trade offer the Celtics made was contingent on it being executed after July 1st (or perhaps later into the summer). At that point, the Celtics have far more options in how to execute a deal, including using Marcus Smart as a sign-and-trade piece, including Robert Williams and his $1.6 million salary (30 days after he signs, he is eligible to be dealt). Delayed moves like this are common (the Nets and Hornets are doing the same thing with the Dwight Howard deal) so that should shed some light on an offer.

2. What would an offer look like after July 1st?

Here is what both sides have to work with, assuming the C's max guys and Jayson Tatum are off the table. Some of these deals could have been offered already by Boston, with the understanding that both sides would have to wait to push them through officially.

2018-19 salaries
Spurs
Kawhi Leonard: $20.1 million

Celtics
Marcus Morris: $5.4 million
Jaylen Brown: $5.2 million
Terry Rozier: $3 million
Guerschon Yabusele: $2.7 million
Robert Williams: $1.6 million
Marcus Smart: ?????? (sign-and-trade) 
Total: $17.9 million

A Celtics package of Morris/Brown/Rozier and Yabusele easily gets the Celtics to the money threshold needed to match, but the guess here is Brown isn't on the table and may not get there. Minimum salary players (Daniel Theis, Semi Ojeleye) could be used as well but the cost control and value on the court make them unlikely to be used as chips for salary matching purposes. Abdel Nader's contract isn't fully guaranteed and that's dead money the Spurs wouldn't want on their books in all likelihood.

The alternatives that may have made up Boston's most recent offer? The Celtics could end up making a trade for another player (using the minimum salary trade exception) and then flip that player (with his salary) as part of a deal that includes Morris, Rozier, Yabusele/Williams and the Sacramento pick and/or Memphis pick. Trading Morris elsewhere to get younger pieces (which could appeal more to San Antonio) and/or more matching salary as part of the Kawhi deal.

One other solution for Boston would be to work Smart in as part of the offer in a sign-and-trade. That would require cooperation from his camp, though, which is no sure thing based on the money he's talked about seeking ($12-14 million). Additionally, Smart's salary would only count as 50 percent of its total value (due to base-year compensation CBA rules) in any trade. For example, if he signed for $10 million, that would only count as $5 million in a trade for salary matching purposes. That situation would force the Celtics to still include names like Morris and Rozier to make the money work in that kind of offer.

3. The Celtics standing pat with their veterans on draft night makes a Leonard deal easier to pull off: Going through all of these scenarios makes one thing pretty clear: the Celtics do not have a lot of movable salaries to make a deal work for Leonard. Moving a bench piece like Rozier or Morris on draft night would have complicated matters since removing even one of them from the equation keeps the math working in a Leonard trade that doesn't involve Brown.

The Celtics kept all of their assets intact last week and now the game of chicken begins between the Spurs and potential Leonard suitors. Will opposing teams continue to lowball the Spurs due to Leonard's uncertain future past 2019, his health concerns and the knowledge that San Antonio has little leverage? Will some team panic and make a stronger play, worrying they may never get another chance to land a player as talented as Leonard again via trade? All four teams that have made offers likely feel they could lure Leonard to stay long-term in their systems.

Danny Ainge won't have as much urgency as the rest of the bunch, but he still has the pieces outbid everyone. If the Spurs are willing to accept a package that doesn't include Brown, that's probably a risk that's worth taking.