Why Marcus Smart's free agent market looks weaker after draft night

The 2018 NBA Draft came and went quietly for veterans across the NBA. Outside of Dwight Howard and Timofey Mozgov, who were dealt for each other in a trade that involved second-round picks last week, no active players were moved on draft night. It was a bit of a dud compared to some of the blockbuster moves of past years (Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo), but also reflective of a salary cap environment in which cost-controlled rookie deals are valued as much as ever by teams.

With no players on the move for the Celtics, Marcus Smart’s pending restricted free agency status remained unchanged from an internal perspective. They want Smart back, but they also want him back at a team-friendly price, something that the tight free agent market may allow for.

We’ve already broken down a list of potential suitors that may have the means and need to drive up Smart’s asking price in free agency here at BostonSportsJournal.com in past weeks. However, a closer look at the moves of several of those teams on draft night points to bad news for a potential Smart payday.

Currently, only about a third of the league’s 30 teams are expected to have substantial salary cap room (over $10 million) when free agency opens next week. That matters from Boston’s perspective since these are the only real teams that can sharply drive up Smart’s asking price. Most of the non-cap space teams across the league will have the mid-level exception (up to $8.5 million) to spend, but that’s a price the Celtics would happily match on an offer sheet.

It’s the cap-room teams that matter for Danny Ainge and Smart’s agent, and a lot of those teams filled holes in the backcourt on Thursday night. Let’s look at a few prominent spots.

Atlanta drafts Trae Young (PG) and Kevin Huerter (SG): This was never a likely destination for Smart anyway with Dennis Schroder already in place (though the team is looking to dump him). Still, they have plenty of money to spend, and they spent draft night bringing aboard two new options in the backcourt. Barring a Schroder deal, it’s difficult to see Smart fitting into this mix. There’s no need for a rebuilding team to give Smart big money either.

Dallas drafts Luka Doncic (PG/SG) and Jalen Brunson (PG): Remember those rumors that linked Smart to his hometown of Dallas over the last couple weeks? It’s hard to envision hearing much more about those in the coming days after the Mavericks spent their entire draft boosting the guard position. Doncic and Dennis Smith Jr. look likely to join forces as the new starting backcourt. Behind them are Jalen Brunson and J.J. Barea, making the need for a guy like Smart is Dallas far less clear.

Combine that with the fact that general manager Donnie Nelson has already acknowledged the center spot will be a priority in free agency, and it's hard to a big chunk of the $20-25 million in Dallas cap room going Smart’s way. Instead, look for the Mavs to be in the mix for DeMarcus Cousins or other young restricted free-agent bigs.

Indiana drafts Aaron Holiday (PG): This was one of the more realistic destinations for Smart a few months ago. They have cap space, they are looking to win now and Smart’s age fits in well with their core. Team consultant Larry Bird has long been rumored to be a huge fan of Smart. Yet the depth chart in Indiana is now jam-packed at both guard spots following the selection of UCLA point guard Aaron Holiday at No. 23. The Pacers now have five NBA-caliber guards under contract (Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Cory Joseph, Lance Stephenson, Bojan Bogdanovic) plus the promising rookie in Holiday. The fit for Smart just doesn’t seem to be there in that mix, barring a clearing of that logjam. Additionally, the Pacers may not have much money left to spend in free agency itself, assuming that Thaddeus Young opts into his $13 million player option. Pacers general manager Kevin Pritchard indicated that the team could be looking to make a splash via trade with any leftover space, and that would leave Smart with one less landing spot.

The Sixers select Landry Shamet (PG): The Sixers have their sights set on far bigger names in free agency and trades than Smart, but their backcourt got even more crowded after selecting Shamet on draft night. Between Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, Jerryd Bayless and TJ McConnell, landing another guard in free agency wouldn’t be a priority for this group even if they miss out on some big fish.

So which teams are left as threats to sign Smart?

There are still some teams out there with a strong need at the position and potential cap space to maneuver with. The Suns are expected to renounce Elfrid Payton, which makes the point guard spot fairly thin on their depth chart. Still, their cap room looks limited barring some more wheeling and dealing. They could have their sights set on bigger names as well.

The Magic also spent their draft going big with Mo Bamba instead of addressing a glaring need at point guard (DJ Augustin is the only rotation caliber PG under contract). Shelvin Mack will likely be cut before his contract becomes guaranteed, so the fit in Florida is certainly there. The problem? The Magic won’t have significant cap room (above $10 million) unless they renounce Aaron Gordon (highly unlikely). It’s also unclear how well a subpar shooter like Smart would work on a team with questionable spacing in the frontcourt as is.

Other teams seem like longer shots. The Bulls are out there as free agent players, but Kris Dunn and Smart seems redundant. The Nets depth chart is pretty packed (Jeremy Lin/D’Angelo Russell/Spencer Dinwiddie) and they are better off spending their money elsewhere. The Lakers have tons of money to spend but they’ll be focused on bigger names. Even if they miss out on those, they would have to offer Smart a three-year deal on an offer sheet (per CBA rules) and the guess here is they would prefer to keep that future cap room free for next summer instead of getting tied down with Smart.

One final threat? The Sacramento Kings. They will have upwards of $20 million to spend. However, would they bring in Smart to start after drafting De’Aaron Fox last year? You never know. It’s the Kings after all.

The bottom line here? The Celtics should feel better than ever about their ability to retain Smart for a reasonable price after draft night. A lot of potential Smart destinations became a lot more unlikely due to the picks that were made, and that should lessen the demand for him next week amid an already tight market.

The bigger question may turn into how contentious the situation gets between Smart and the C’s after he surely turned down a bigger offer before the season in extension talks than he’ll get here. There is always a possibility of a sign-and-trade for Smart if the C’s need him for salary matching purposes (i.e. a deal for Kawhi Leonard). If not, the question is whether Ainge will offer him enough to sign long-term? Otherwise, Smart could be content to sign a one-year qualifying offer ($6.05 million) so he can hit unrestricted free agency next summer with more landing spots available.

This whole process could take weeks to play itself out as both sides posture, but one thing seems clear: Smart’s bargaining position probably got weaker on draft night.