Bedard: Diving into which player(s) could be the surprise trade/release before season

Every year around this time, it's the most popular question in BSJ member chats and on Twitter:

Who's going to be the surprise cut or trade for the Patriots?

There's always some name(s) that raise everyone's eyebrows.

Before we get into the candidates for this year's surprise, let's look back at the names that showed up in previous years:

[table id=64 /]

So with that as a backdrop, here are the players who could be on the chopping/trade block once training camp begins. We'll separate them into three categories: "Even Odds," "Longshots" and "Doubtful, But Can't Be Ruled Out."

EVEN ODDS

RB Mike Gillislee

Argument for trade/release: Everyone knows the drill with the former Bills back. Looked like a steal when the Patriots signed him to a restricted offer sheet, and while he opened 2017 as a healthy starter, he was inactive for most of the second half of the season and the playoffs. He didn't do anything in OTAs to suggest he's markedly better this season, and things have gotten a lot more crowded with Rex Burkhead signing an extension, Jeremy Hill signing as a free agent and the team adding Sony Michel as a first-round pick.

Argument against: The Patriots will definitely need to keep Gillislee around in case of the inevitable injury. But ideally, he would be traded to a RB-needy team sooner rather than later. ... Only counts $2.18 million against the cap.

TE Dwayne Allen

Argument for trade/release: Another obvious candidate due to an underwhelming initial season with the Patriots. ... Releasing or trading Allen would automatically give the Patriots $5 million in cap space. ... The arrival of Troy Niklas and improvements from Jacob Hollister/Will Tye make it much easier this season for movement at this position.

Argument against: When Allen is healthy, he has the potential to be one of the better two-way tight ends in the NFL and a ready in-house replacement for Rob Gronkowski in case of trade or injury. The other tight ends are not nearly as plug-and-play as Allen as a Y/TE1. The question: Will things ever click for Allen here or in the NFL? Looked like a Gronk rival as a rookie, but hasn't been the same player since.

RB Jeremy Hill

Argument for trade/release: Much of the same discussion as Gillilslee (crowded backfield) without the baggage of last season. Basically, it feels like one or the other on the roster.

Argument against: Has the potential to be the short-yardage back (the Patriots struggled there last year, post-LeGarrette Blount) and contribute on special teams, now that he's past his injuries. Only on a one-year deal.

DT Malcom Brown

Argument for trade/release: Another contract-year player. Could they get more for him now than in a compensatory pick? Quite possibly, if a team that views itself as a contender loses an interior starter due to injury. Patriots have plenty of other options on the interior (Danny Shelton, Lawrence Guy, Vincent Valentine) should they part ways with Brown.

Argument against: None of those other players are really close to Brown in terms of talent, versatility and dependability. ... He merely closed down the Jaguars' gameplan in the AFC Championship Game. ... Won't be that expensive to re-sign.

LONG SHOTS

RG Shaq Mason

Argument for trade/release: Yeah, this one hurts a little. Mason was in the conversation for All-Pro last season, but this is all about economics. Miguel laid out all the different extension/tag scenarios on Mason here. I see this as a scenario where the Patriots either reach a contract extension with him before the season (and that's preferred because he is an excellent, rising talent) or they deal him now for more than the third-round compensatory pick they would recoup if he walks in free agency. The Patriots have two significant players (Mason, Trey Flowers) entering the final year of their contracts, and only one franchise tag. Both are expensive ($14 million-plus for OL, $17 million-plus for DE) and I could see the Patriots using neither. New England hasn't been shy about trading players entering contract seasons (Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins, Brandin Cooks) in recent years.

Argument against: The Patriots basically found and made Mason (fourth-round pick from a triple-option school) and they'll want to reap the rewards if he continues on this path and become the best right guard in the game (don't discount any coach/GM's ego when it comes to this). ... New England will pay top-of-the-line money for players it believes will be among the best at their position for years to come, and Mason, more than any player on this list, could be that. Any extension could be viewed as a discount a few years down the road.

DE Trey Flowers

Argument for trade/release: This is going to be a tough one to make because a), Flowers is by far the Patriots' best and more complete edge player, and they're not exactly growing them on trees down there. And b), I love me some Trey Flowers for a variety of reasons. But it comes down to two things, really: Flowers is in a contract year, and the team and the player may not see his value the same way — no matter New England's current situation on the edge (it's not good). The internal discussions on Flowers might very well be he's found his ceiling and he may not, as opposed to Mason, have his best football in front of him. The Patriots might be able to sell very high on him now, especially to a Bill Belichick-friendly coach/GM.

Argument against: The Patriots are not in good position on the edge, and he definitely gives the team the best chance to win a Super Bowl this season. It might be wise just to have him for this season and then take the comp pick.

WR Cordarrelle Patterson

Argument for trade/release: He has the 16th-highest cap number on the team ($3.25 million) and there's a chance he may only touch the ball 3-5 times a game (Not that it's stopped Belichick before). All $3.25 million would come off the cap if he's released. There are a lot of questions about whether or not Patterson is capable of functioning within the Patriots' scheme, outside of gadget plays.

Argument against: The Patriots really don't have many options at kick returner, and Patterson is among the best in the game. The new kick rules may actually make a returner like Patterson even more valuable.

WR Kenny Britt

Argument for trade/release: Has a long history of injuries (he already got dinged in minicamp) and personal issues, and that might not be worth the hassle at a crowded position.

Argument against: The Patriots don't have anyone else comparable in size, strength and potential as a boundary receiver. They could use the help in the red zone, and his $1.45 million cap hit isn't that bad, especially considering he has the potential for more touches than, say, a Patterson. ... Belichick has wanted Britt for a while. Of course, the same could be said for Chad Ochocinco.

CB Jason McCourty

Argument for trade/release: Counts $3 million against the cap at a position where the Patriots could afford to go younger and cheaper (they've let go of some good, young CBs in recent years — Justin Coleman, Cre'von LeBlanc, Mike Hilton). ... Didn't really see much of the field during OTAs, so you wonder if there's an injury situation.

Argument against: Like Britt, McCourty is another former Rutgers player that Belichick has privately lusted after. And is he really going to ruin the one chance the McCourty Twins have had to play in the NFL and make an enemy of Mama McCourty? I don't think so.

DOUBTFUL, BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT

ST/WR Matthew Slater

Argument for trade/release: He'll be 33 on Sept. 9 and he's missed a combined 10 games the past two seasons as he becomes less and less reliable physically. As Belichick has said in the past, "Dependability is more important than ability."

Argument against: When healthy, he's the best special teams player in the league and he's an unquestioned leader on the team. A release would not save them all that much money (about $1 million).

TE Rob Gronkowski

Argument for trade/release: Well, they tried to trade him in the offseason, so Belichick has definitely worked out a post-Gronk life in his own mind. ... Gronkowski is high-maintenance across the board as far as his contract, health, his team devotion to workouts, and he's been at the crux of the Alex Guerrero issues. ... He acted like a jackass on Patriots soil. ... With his injury history and potential, selling high might not be the worst thing in the world. ... Once Tom Brady reports to camp, it won't be so easy for him to walk away from the Patriots if he desires to pull a power move if the team gives Gronk the old Logan Mankins treatment. ... Would save nearly $7 million on the cap.

Argument against: When healthy, he's the best player in the game at his position and he's the team's best weapon. There's no ready replacement and, as opposed to before the draft, there's not much time to find one now ... Brady will be ticked off. ... The football season would be a lot less fun without Gronk in our lives.

[democracy id="6"]