What does Zack Martin's new deal mean for the Patriots and Shaq Mason?

On Wednesday, Adam Schefter reported the Cowboys and Pro Bowl guard Zack Martin agreed to six-year, $84 million extension that includes $40 million guaranteed. (Ian Rapoport of NFL Media later reported Martin received a $20 million signing bonus.) The deal is going to have serious ramifications for the offensive line market, most notably Shaq Mason, who will be entering the final year of his current contract in 2018. Let's go inside the numbers and break down what it means for Mason and the Patriots.

But first, some background:



The "paper money" APY metric divides the money received by a player by the number of total years in their contract. Let's use Tom Brady as an example: As part of his 2016 extension, he's scheduled to receive $60 million over four years. That means Brady's "paper money" APY is $15 million (60/4).

The "new money" APY metric divides the new money received by a player by the number of new years in their contract. Using Brady again as an example: In 2016, he added two more years to his deal while receiving $41 million in new money. That means Brady's "new money" APY is $20.5 million (41/2).

The paper money APY metric will equal new money APY metric when the player is signing a brand new deal. The new money APY metric is the one most often used to compare player deals.

With that in mind, let's look at the top right guard deals, as ranked by paper APY:

1. Martin: $13,347,286


2. Kevin Zeitler: $12,000,000


3. David DeCastro: $9,678,333


4. TJ Lang: $9,500,000


5. Gabe Jackson: $9,466,167


6. Trai Turner: $9,359,400


7. Justin Pugh: $9,005,000


8. Larry Worford: $8,500,000

Here are the right guard deals, as ranked by new money APY:

1. Martin: $14,000,000


2. Zeitler: $12,000,000


3. Turner: $11,250,000


4. Jackson: $11,000,000


5. DeCastro: $10,000,000


6. Long: $10,000,000


7. Lang: $9,500,000


8. Pugh: $9,005,000

As of June 13, Martin is now the highest-paid guard in the NFL. He only trails Nate Solder ($15.5 million new money APY) among offensive linemen.

Mason was selected in the fourth round of the 2015 draft by the Patriots and has played in 46 of 48 regular season games and eight of a possible eight playoff games. He has started at right guard for 37 straight games, and is 24 years old -- he'll turn 25 on Aug. 28. His 2018 cap number is $2,017,881 ($1,907,000 salary + $110,881 signing bonus proration).

Here are Mason's snap counts:

• 2017: 99.6 percent


• 2016: 91 percent


• 2015: 65.7 percent

With all that in mind, here are some possibilities for Mason:

The best scenario for the team? Mason agrees to an extension that makes him the ninth-highest paid right guard. I consider this team-friendly, as I think that Mason is a rising talent.

The next scenario presents what I consider a fair deal for both sides. It uses Turner's extension as a template.

The last screenshot is what I consider Mason's floor if he hits free agency in 2019 after a great season in 2018.

My prediction is Mason looks at Martin's deal and sees that he will most likely be the best available free-agent right guard in 2019. Does he spurn New England if it offers something between now and the start of next offseason? Only time will tell.

Answering some logical follow-up questions:

Via Twitter, from @TinyFezzik: Is there any reason to think Mason's agent isn't going to cite Martin and Andrew Norwell's deals? (Even though Norwell is a left guard?)

Answer: No. Mason's agent is probably anxiously waiting for all of the details of Martin's extension to be reported.

Question: Do the Patriots have the cap space to extend Mason in 2018?

Answer: Yes, they do. Please note the cap savings from a possible Rob Gronkowski extension or a Brady extension would in effect offset Mason's increased 2018 cap number.

Question: What Patriots are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents in 2019?

Answer:

• Stephen Gostkowski


• Chris Hogan


• Cordarrelle Patterson


• Jason McCourty


• Malcom Brown


• Mike Gillislee


• Trey Flowers


• Danny Shelton


• Shaq Mason


• Ryan Allen


• Trent Brown


• Marquis Flowers


• LaAdrian Waddle


• James Develin 6/14/18 3PM update: Develin will soon be extended


• Kenny Britt


• Phillip Dorsett


• Jeremy Hill


• Jordan Richards


• Eric Rowe


• Jordan Matthews


• Troy Niklas


• Ulrick John


• Joe Cardona 6/15/18 9AM update: Cardona will soon be extended


• Brandon Bolden


• Geneo Grissom


• Luke Bowanko


• Matt Tobin

Question: Would the Patriots make Mason one of the highest paid guards?

Answer: The Patriots made Logan Mankins the league's highest-paid interior offensive lineman ($8.5 million APY) in August 2011. The 2011 cap was $120 million. It's very likely that since it has been projected to be between $188 million and $190 million, the 2019 league cap will be at least 56 percent greater than the 2012 cap. An $8.5 million APY deal in 2011 when the league cap was $120 million equates to $13,316,666.67 APY deal in 2019 (if the 2019 league cap is $188 million).  If the Patriots plan to extend Mason, their best chance to do so will be before the start of the 2018 season.

Question:  What was the 2018 franchise tag for offensive linemen?

Answer:  $14.077 million

Question: What is the latest estimate for the 2019 franchise tag for an offensive lineman?

Answer: According to CBS Sports's Joel Corry, around $14.7 million if the League Cap is $190 million.

Question: Why tag Mason if the Patriots plan to reach a long-term deal?

Answer: It gives both sides more time to come to an agreement without giving another team the opportunity to sign him.

Question: Is it possible that Mason will become unhappy if the Patriots tag him?

Answer: Yes, but a team should not negotiate out of fear. The franchise tag is a negotiating tool and teams have every right to use it. The Patriots have seen both Vince Wilfork and Mankins show their displeasure with the Patriots regarding their contracts, and both later signed lucrative extensions with the Patriots. A great deal of money tends to dissipate any existing ill will.

Question: What has happened with previously tagged Patriots during the Bill Belichick era?

Answer:

2002: Adam Vinatieri. Signed a multi-year extension

2003: Tebucky Jones. Traded in April to the Saints for three draft picks.

2005: Adam Vinatieri. Played the 2015 season under the franchise tag. Left in free agency in 2006 for the Colts.

2007: Asante Samuel. Played the season under the franchise tag. Left in free agency in 2008 for the Eagles.

2009: Matt Cassel. Traded with Mike Vrabel a day after free agency began to the Chiefs

2010: Wilfork. Signed an extension a couple of weeks after being tagged

2011: Mankins. Signed an extension in August that made him at the time the highest paid guard.

2012: Wes Welker. Played the season under the tag. Left in 2013 for the Broncos.

2015: Stephen Gostkowski - Signed tag in March. Reached an extension in July that made him the highest paid kicker in the game.

Question: What Patriots offensive guards are signed for the future?

Answer:

Joe Thuney through 2019

Isaiah Wynn through 2022

Ted Karras through 2019

Cole Croston through 2019

Jason King through 2018

Have a question for a future PatsCap mailbag? You can send those to him at any time via email (patscap@bostonsportsjournal.com), or you can Tweet them to him here.