The Celtics may have a lot of assets to work with for a potential trade for Kawhi Leonard, but there are also a number of obstacles that stand in the way of a blockbuster deal.
Boston’s roster is significantly top-heavy in terms of salary distribution, with more than 60 percent of the roster payroll taken up by three players: Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, and Al Horford. If Ainge doesn’t want to move his stars, packaging together enough salary to match Leonard’s contract with the rest of the pieces on the Celtics roster leads to a finite number of feasible trade scenarios and nearly all of them would have to involve Jaylen Brown.
Let’s walk through the framework of deals that will and won’t work under NBA rules to get a better sense of what Danny Ainge is dealing with as he maps out potential offers. Incredibly, there is one late-season addition (Greg Monroe) who could serve as a deterrent for the Celtics making any deal with the Spurs before July 1st.
The issues Ainge would face stem from Boston’s salary cap situation and the NBA luxury tax. Ainge would have to package at least four players (assuming Jayson Tatum, Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and Al Horford isn’t one of them) if he wanted to make the deal with non-star players (Jaylen Brown, Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, Guerschon Yabusele) for the math to work under CBA rules. The problem with that scenario (beyond the C’s gutting their bench) is the luxury tax threshold, which sits at $119.26 million for the 2017-18 season. Currently, the C’s payroll stands at just over $115 million, leaving the Celtics just over four million dollars of wiggle room to stay out of the luxury tax.
Before getting into more particulars of the situation, let’s make one thing clear: the Celtics ownership has paid the luxury tax before, and they will certainly do it again in years to come. However, with the season now over, there is no chance the team would want to push themselves into the luxury tax for this past season in a Leonard trade. It would cost the franchise tens of millions of dollars to do that since instead of receiving a share of the revenue from the league, the C’s would have to pay into the revenue sharing pot.
It’s with that backdrop that we can take look at the Leonard trade possibilities with a different lens. Since the new NBA calendar year does not start until July 1st, any trade made before then uses salaries from the 2017-18 season. Players that are about to become free agents can’t be dealt after the trade deadline (up until the new league year starts on July 1st, at which point they can be used in a sign-and-trade) so that leaves Boston with a limited pool of players to move in an offer.
Leonard earns $18.9 million during the 2017-18 season, so the Celtics would only need to send out $13.9 million to make the deal worth under the CBA. Here are the salaries the C’s have to work with ahead of July 1st:
2017-18 salaries
Marcus Morris: $5 million
Jaylen Brown: $4.9 million
Guerschon Yabusele: $2.2 million
Terry Rozier: $2 million
Total: $14.1 million
The Celtics can get to the $13.9 million salary line with that package but they are going to run into a bit of a problem if they offer this type of deal: they’ll be taking back well over $4 million more than they are sending out ($18.9 million - $14.1 million = $4.8 million), and that difference in salary pushes them into the luxury tax for 2017-18. The guess here is that will be a non-starter for negotiations for the front office. The Celtics would need to dump another salary to get out of the luxury tax and getting rid of Daniel Theis or Semi Ojeleye for little to no value is not an ideal situation for a team already losing three cheap rotation pieces in the deal.
The crazy thing about this situation? The only reason why the luxury tax is an issue is due to the addition of Monroe in February for $5 million with the disabled player exception. That put the Celtics much closer to the tax line, but with enough of a buffer (at least it seemed it was enough) that the C’s never thought they could be at risk of going over it. Yet, it’s that contract that will stand as an obstacle for making a deal before July 1st for Boston unless Ainge uses one of his stars or further depletes his bench.
So what are the alternatives here for Ainge to deal with this issue if he still wants to acquire Leonard and doesn’t want to throw in Ojeleye or Theis?
1. Offer up one of Irving, Gordon Hayward or Horford to match the money: This seems unlikely for obvious reasons. Trading Hayward one year after wooing him in free agency seems like pretty awful optics from a league-wide perspective. Horford doesn’t make much sense for San Antonio, given his age and the fact that they already have LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol under contract. He’s also not close to equal value for Leonard either.
Irving’s contract is actually identical to Leonard’s, but a trade involving both players would seem like a step sideways more than a step forward for both teams. Leonard is clearly the better all-around player, so why would the Spurs dump one All-Star asset for another who could walk away next summer in an unappealing market? Why would Irving be enticed to sign long-term in San Antonio with an aging core and a murky long-term outlook?
If Boston and San Antonio found a third team that wanted to give up more secure assets to San Antonio (young players and picks) in exchange for Irving, that’s a more realistic scenario. Whether that team is out there remains to be seen. I would also think the C’s would prioritize keeping Irving and Leonard together to chase titles for the next decade rather than moving on from one for another.
All of these options don’t seem to make sense for Ainge unless he is convinced that Irving is walking at the end of next season anyway.
2. Both sides agree to a Leonard trade in June but don’t execute it until July: This is a road the Celtics tried to go down last summer with the Pacers, albeit with a lot more balls in the air at the time (i.e. keeping cap space open for Gordon Hayward).
This time around, the math is less complicated. Salaries are easier to match after July 1st for both sides since everyone on the C’s roster is getting a raise. The No. 27 overall pick could be used for salary matching purposes as well ($1.6 million) The Celtics also wouldn’t have to worry about the luxury tax threshold being a factor. Here’s the breakdown
2018-19 salaries
Spurs
Kawhi Leonard: $20.1 million
Celtics
Marcus Morris: $5.4 million
Jaylen Brown: $5.2 million
Terry Rozier: $3 million
Guerschon Yabusele: $2.7 million
Total: $16.3 million
The bigger question, obviously, is whether the C’s would want to offer a package like that in the first place with the medical and signability questions facing Leonard long-term. The front office will surely do their due diligence on both of those fronts before putting anything close to it on the table.
There is also an alternative scenario where the C’s could use Marcus Smart’s salary (via a sign-and-trade) after July 1 to replace Brown’s salary in the above deal. It’s doubtful that the Spurs would be open to that type of offer though, unless Boston was willing to include a couple future lottery picks (Sacramento and Memphis) to jumpstart a rebuild. Smart’s willingness to get involved at a salary number that works for both sides could be an obstacle as well in negotiations.
The bottom line for any Celtics’ pursuit is that is it’s going to be contingent on the Spurs being willing to stay patient with their decision making on Leonard as the calendar turns to July. Like the Pacers with Paul George, they might not be content to do so if they find an offer around the draft that would disappear if not jumped on then. If the Spurs want to move fast here (i.e. do a Leonard trade on draft night), the C’s are going to be at a disadvantage due to their salary limitations and the luxury tax. However, if the Spurs take things slow, Boston will have more flexibility to pounce.
Other NBA News and Notes
- The final head coach position in the NBA came off the board this week as the Raptors came to terms with Nick Nurse, who was an assistant under Dwane Casey for the past few years. It’s an intriguing decision by GM Masai Ujiri to stick within Casey’s staff for the change, but he clearly wants some sense of continuity to deal with was has been a flawed roster for the postseason. The pressure now shifts to Ujiri to revamp this group with limited trade options this summer.
- Nuggets power forward Darrell Arthur became the latest among a long list of players to opt into their player option next season. The Nuggets continue to have a glut of overpriced talent at power forward and are looking to dump Kenneth Faried somewhere to steer clear of the luxury tax for next season.
- Zach Lowe of ESPN.com with a noteworthy report on Friday that the NBA could be finished with the one-and-done rule by the 2021 NBA Draft. This is a story to keep an eye on for the Celtics since the protected first-round pick they own from Memphis could eventually roll into an unprotected pick for the 2021 Draft, a class that could be loaded with two classes of elite talent (high school grads and college freshmen).
- Boston College standout Jerome Robinson continues to rise up draft boards after going through the workout process. The sharp-shooting guard was initially pegged as a pick at the end of the first round, but league sources indicate he could go in the teens.
- Look for plenty of movement in the NBA Draft on Thursday night with such a fluid draft board up top. The uncertainty around lottery names like Michael Porter Jr. (injuries) and Marvin Bagley (defense) combined with the desire of some squads to shed big salaries should lead to a blockbuster or two before the night is over.