The Celtics are positioned to have far less turnover in the summer of 2018 than recent offseasons. Eleven of the team’s 15 roster players are already under contract and Danny Ainge likes what he saw from the group that came up just short of an NBA Finals berth despite the absence of two All-Stars.
“At this time last year I couldn’t have said we’d have 11 new players off a team that just won 53 games and won a playoff round,” Ainge explained. “But you just don’t know what opportunities present themselves. But I like this group of guys. We’re not looking to make changes other than just small tweaks here and there to our roster. But we really do like this core group of guys that we’ve had all year.”
While the vast majority of the core is in place, there are some tricky decisions that loom for some key pieces of the squad in free agency. The Celtics will enter the offseason over the salary cap and they only have Bird Rights on one free agent (Marcus Smart). The front office will have limited resources to bring the rest back (Non-Bird Rights or Mid-Level/Bi-Annual Exception) and playing time opportunities will certainly factor into the decision for both sides as negotiations unfold.
So what are the odds of each free agent returning to Boston next season? Let’s take a closer look at the situation of each player to analyze the chances that they will be back:
NOT LIKELY TO RETURN (Under 25 percent)
Greg Monroe: The opportunity was there in Boston, at least on the surface, when the 6-foot-11 big man elected to sign a $5 million dollar deal for a portion of the disabled player exception after the trade deadline. The depth signing looked like a solid decision right away once Daniel Theis went down with a torn meniscus, leaving the center spot very thin behind Al Horford and Aron Baynes. While Monroe provided some useful minutes in the regular season (10.2 ppg and 6.3 rpg), he was never a strong fit in this scheme due to his defensive deficiencies. His inability to defend on the perimeter and in the pick-and-roll made him a constant target for opposing offenses and that only grew during the postseason. Brad Stevens pulled him from the rotation during the Bucks series and his flaws were magnified whenever he got a brief chance at minutes against the Sixers and Cavs.
With Theis back healthy and Baynes a higher priority target to re-sign for the Celtics, it’s hard to envision both sides to be eager for a reunion. At age 27, Monroe is going to be looking for opportunity and it’s hard to see much of that for him in Boston. Ainge is not going to spend much more than the veteran’s minimum for a third center either and that’s Monroe would be on this team. He could be a fallback option if Baynes signs elsewhere. Barring that, his tenure in Boston is expected to be a brief one.
A LITTLE LESS THAN 50/50
Shane Larkin: The 25-year-old point guard certainly played well enough in his return to the NBA to earn himself another contract for next season. The question that looms now is whether that will come in Boston or elsewhere.
Larkin took advantage of injuries in the Celtics backcourt to play a fairly prominent role in the C’s rotation. His shooting numbers left something to be desired (38 percent FG) but he hit enough from 3-point range (36 percent) to be a capable floor spacer. His size (5-foot-11) proved to be an issue during the postseason as he was targeted in mismatches frequently, but he served as a valuable defender in the backcourt all year long. Larkin was also the best passing point guard on the team outside of Marcus Smart, capable of running a pick-and-roll without the risk of overshooting (unlike Smart).
While Larkin’s value to the Celtics is evident, it’s hard to see him getting much playing time next year in Boston if Smart returns and Terry Rozier isn’t traded. That fact will likely turn his free agency into a bit of a waiting game as he sees what happens with both of those players. He won’t be able to command much more than the veteran’s minimum wherever he goes, so the guess here is he takes the first opportunity offered to him that contains a strong chance to earn regular bench minutes. Cash-strapped teams would be wise to throw an offer his way and if the Celtics move on from Smart or Rozier, you can bet they will try to bring him back.
LIKELY TO STAY (60-70 percent)
Aron Baynes: I chronicled his situation in greater depth last week at BostonSportsJournal.com. While Baynes showed great value as a rim protector and starting option next to Horford in the frontcourt, that alignment may become less necessary with the influx of healthy talent returning to the lineup on the wing next season. Al Horford is the odds-on favorite to start most games at center next season, which would leave Baynes and Theis battling for frontcourt minutes behind both.
That reality will probably prevent the Celtics from dipping into the mid-level exception to bring him back. They will have the ability to offer him a starting salary for up to $5.2 million for next year and could tack on a year or two on top of that to give the 31-year-old some extra security that could convince him to sign.
However, if another playoff team comes in with a bigger chunk of the mid-level exception (up to $8.5 million per year) and a starting opportunity, the Celtics would be put to the test. Would they be content to hand primary center bench duties to Theis (despite his lack of size) and add some cheaper depth via the draft or free agency? Or would the prospect of losing an important defender against Joel Embiid make them pay up?
The guess here is that a bigger offer like that for the aging Baynes will not re-emerge. That will leave the door open for the Celtics to bring him back at a price that fits their budget. However, if a wildcard suitor emerges, Baynes’ stay in Boston could be a brief one.
VERY LIKELY TO STAY (70-80 percent)
Marcus Smart: The Celtics hold all of the leverage here and that is what matters in what is sure to be a tight restricted free agency market. Very few teams can match Smart’s reported asking price of $12-14 million per year and it remains to be seen whether any of those teams view Smart as a starting caliber point guard.
Given the unlikeliness of that big money scenario emerging for Smart, Ainge’s decision with the point guard will come down to whether he wants to play hardball or not. If he sweetens the pot enough, he can sign Smart to a long-term deal and lock him up through the next few years of his prime. If not, it’s going to be a staring contest that will test Smart’s willingness to roll the dice and play on a qualifying offer next season, so he can ultimately hit unrestricted free agency in 2019.
Either way, the odds are strongly in favor of Smart staying put in Boston for at least one more year. Beyond that? It’s anyone guess.
NBA News and Notes
- Sixers president of basketball operations Bryan Colangelo remains under investigation by the team for his connection to ‘burner Twitter accounts’ that revealed various private details about certain players on the team and criticized stars like Embiid and Ben Simmons. While it appears some of those accounts may have been operated by Colangelo’s wife, it’s hard to see Colangelo surviving this investigation given that he would have been responsible for information his wife shared. From a Celtics’ perspective, this is not great news since Colangelo’s dismissal would open the door for an elite general manager to be brought in and shape one of the best young cores in the league. Colangelo is well-respected around the league but his recent moves (including last year’s draft deal with Boston) have not panned out. Look for a resolution to this whole bizarre situation as soon as next week.
- Nice to see former Hornets coach Steve Clifford land on his feet with the Orlando Magic after being fired by Charlotte last month. He struggled through health issues last season that helped sidetracked a Hornets team that saw an underwhelming season from nearly its entire collection of veterans outside of Kemba Walker. The Magic have a lot of work to do with their rebuilding effort but Clifford is the right type of coach to lead that turnaround.
- Brett Brown was given a three-year extension by the Sixers this week. The head coach deserved the extra years after suffering through a painful rebuild during the Sam Hinkie era.
- Knicks guard Ron Baker exercised his $4.5 million player option for next season in one of the least surprising moves of the offseason. The second-year guard probably could have been signed to a veteran’s minimum deal after a solid rookie year but his agent somehow convinced the Knicks to pay him $9 million over two seasons despite the fact that they held his restricted free agent rights. Another baffling move by a front office that has understandably missed the East postseason for five straight years now.
- The last remaining open head coaching job in the NBA is with the Pistons. Their revamped front office has been busy this week, interviewing Jason Kidd, Dwane Casey and Michigan head coach John Beilein for the position. This is the first time that Beilein has been in the mix for a head coaching job but his system would translate very well to the NBA. Given his local ties, he would be a solid hire for that spot.
