Why Aron Baynes would be a tough piece to replace for Celtics in free agency

Marcus Smart is getting most of the headlines during the start of the offseason, but one name that deserves plenty of attention as the calendar turns to July 1st is Aron Baynes.

The 31-year-old center was an integral part of the frontcourt all year long after signing a one-year deal last offseason for the room exception ($4.3 million). Baynes anchored the league’s best defense from the center spot, took the onus off of Al Horford against centers with size across the league, and even added a 3-point jumper to his game, which proved valuable during the postseason.

He was a part of Boston’s most played lineup all year (Kyrie Irving/Jaylen Brown/Jayson Tatum/Al Horford/Baynes), and that group’s net rating (plus-13.2) wiped the floor compared to Boston’s small-ball starting lineups (Marcus Morris over Baynes had a minus-9.7 rating) during the regular season. The Celtics needed Baynes on the floor to be a good rebounding team most nights, and the team’s defense took a sharp dip when he didn’t play with the starters.

“We liked Aron’s contribution this year,” Danny Ainge explained at exit interviews earlier this week. “He’s just a great teammate. He takes a lot of pressure off of Al, plays all the tough guys, brings consistent energy day in and day out to practice and games and he was a really big part of our team this year.”

The impact that Baynes had throughout the postseason was evident as he battled valiantly against the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid to help the Celtics win those series. There are few centers around the NBA who can hold their own against those stars, and it’s safe to say those guys aren’t going anywhere in the Eastern Conference anytime soon.

That reality provides a pressing backdrop to Baynes’ pending free agency this offseason. Not only do the Celtics have limited resources to retain him, but a look around the league also shows a lack of appealing alternatives.

Here’s a current list of true centers that will be hitting the free agent market this summer:

Unrestricted
Brook Lopez
DeMarcus Cousins
Jahlil Okafor
Alex Len
Nerlens Noel
Zaza Pachulia
JaVale McGee

Restricted
Clint Capela
Jusuf Nurkic
Salah Mejri
Lucas Nogueira

Names like Capela, Nurkic and Cousins can be crossed off immediately since they will cost much more than the mid-level exception. Lopez will probably be able to command mid-level money as well, unless he wants to chase a ring somewhere. However, the worrisome thing for the Celtics is that there really isn’t anyone on this list that is attainable and also has the defensive toughness that Baynes brings to the table.

Lopez is an offense-first guy who really struggles with mobility on defense. Len can protect the rim a bit, but he’s been underwhelming overall during his first four years in Phoenix. Noel couldn’t get on the floor most of the year in Dallas, and he has dealt with off-court issues throughout his career. Pachulia and McGee both look like they are done. It’s pretty slim pickings out there for a team without salary cap room. The bottom of the first round doesn’t have many true bigs either.

That fact could help to push up Baynes’ asking price a bit if a team with some extra cap room and a need for a defensive presence inside (Pacers? Lakers?) is intrigued by bringing in the 6-foot-10 big man. Baynes isn’t going to command anything beyond the mid-level exception ($8.5 million), but that’s money the Celtics may want to use to address other needs. The team will be able to offer up to $5.16 million as a starting salary with their Non-Bird Rights (120 percent of his 2017-18 salary), but that could easily be outbid by a suitor who is willing to use their own mid-level exception on him.

The other wildcards here from Boston’s perspective are need and opportunity. They will have a healthy Daniel Theis returning next year, which obviously provides some help behind Baynes and Al Horford at center, if he returns. However, things get dicey quickly towards the end of the depth chart. Greg Monroe is not likely to return after being a non-factor in the postseason. Guerschon Yabusele is too green to be counted on. One injury to Horford or Theis could leave the Celtics very vulnerable in the frontcourt.

The Celtics will be looking to play small ball more with a returning Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, but playing without a true center next to a 32-year-old Al Horford for 82 games does not seem like a good idea. Horford has voiced his preference to play power forward throughout his career, and that won’t fade as he ages. Instead, the need to protect him so he can be at his best during the postseason will only rise.

The good news for the Celtics is that Baynes sounds like a guy who wants to be back in green.

“I enjoyed the hell out of it, to be honest,” Baynes said on Monday. “It’s over a lot sooner than we wanted. I really enjoyed the opportunity I was given here, just embraced trying to play within the system. Everybody on the team bought into this system. That’s something that’s tough to do at this level, (to) have complete buy-in for every single guy on the roster. That’s something that Brad was able to accomplish, Danny was able to accomplish. That’s something special.”

If Brad Stevens wants to stick with a more traditional starting five over a small-ball look as everyone gets healthy, they can offer Baynes the lure of a starting spot (albeit for small minutes).

“I always want to contribute,” Baynes acknowledged. “I think anyone in the league always wants to contribute more. That’s something that I would love to be able to contribute more. That’s what I’ve been able to work on here over the course of the season. Brad’s been able to work with me on some things, and I’ve been able to contribute more. So I love my opportunity here, and I always want to try to contribute more to a team to help them going even further. That’s what my goal is.”

There obviously won’t be room for everyone from last year’s roster. If a guy like Baynes is brought back with Theis as his backup at center, it’s hard to see there being sufficient minutes to keep a player like Morris happy, particularly if Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier are both back as well.

With Morris under contract, it won’t necessarily be an either/or scenario. However, with tough decisions on the horizon at multiple spots on the roster, Baynes is a piece that would be very tough to replace if he walks. If the C’s want to use the mid-level exception to bolster other areas of the roster, they need to hope he takes the $5.16 million (non-bird exception) they can offer. Otherwise, the C’s will have to choose between downgrading in the frontcourt or leaving themselves with limited resources to upgrade elsewhere.