Which teams are legitimate threats to sign Marcus Smart away from the Celtics?

The biggest storyline of this Celtics’ offseason will be looming free agency of Marcus Smart. The point guard and Boston’s front office failed to come to an extension in October after negotiations went down to the wire, setting the stages of Smart’s restricted free agency this summer. In the coming weeks, the Celtics will extend Smart a $6.05 million qualifying offer, a mere formality at this point.

From there, things will get interesting. Smart reportedly turned down some substantial offers in October from the Celtics in hopes of landing a more lucrative deal. The point guard told ESPN.com earlier this week he is asking for something in the $12-14 million range and believes he is worth even more than that.

It’s fair to see why Smart believes he is worth that kind of money, despite putting together another subpar offensive season. He’s seen multiple teammates like Evan Turner, Kelly Olynyk, and others cash in after hitting the free agency market in recent years and several of his draft classmates (Gary Harris, T.J. Warren) landed lucrative extensions back in October from their respective teams.

While there is no question Smart and his reps will use those numbers as they make the case for a big offer sheet from Boston or another team, the more important question is how much money remains available this summer across the rest of the league. The Celtics are not going to bid against themselves in this negotiation, so it’s going to be up to Smart to find an offer somewhere that could force Ainge’s hand and make him pay up.

Which teams are actually serious threats to meet Smart’s asking price? A closer look at the market shows it’s a lot fewer than you think.

Understanding restricted free agency

The rules for free agency are pretty simple for restricted free agents. The Celtics can pay Smart whatever they want up to a max contract since they have Bird Rights on him. Boston also has three days to match any offer sheet that Smart signs with another team. If Smart does not like what the Celtics are offering him on a multi-year deal and isn’t fielding many other appealing offers due to his restricted label, he can elect to play on a qualifying offer (a one-year deal worth $6.05 million). It’s obviously a risk for Smart given the lack of long-term guaranteed money, but it also opens the door for him to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019, which may be a more lucrative summer for free agents. The Celtics wouldn’t hold the leverage anymore in this situation like they do during Smart’s restricted free agency this summer.

A tight free agency market in 2018.

The NBA salary cap is only jumping slightly for the 2018-19 season, by about two percent to $101 million. The lack of a sharp increase combined with overspending by many franchises in recent offseasons (thanks to a high cap spike in those years) has left very few teams with the kind of cap space that would be needed to meet Smart’s asking price this summer.

Only 10 NBA teams are projected to have significant salary cap space this summer and fewer of those will have the need for a point guard. Other teams over the cap will have the mid-level exception at their disposal (worth $8.7 million per year) but that’s not close to Smart’s asking price.

Other prospective free-agent guards have already adjusted to this reality. Reserve point guard Cory Joseph opted into his $7.8 million player option with the Pacers already. Lou Williams signed a three-year extension with the Clippers back in March worth $8 million annually. It’s fair to argue that Smart has higher value than both of these players, but this is at least the subset of player that Smart would find himself in. He’s actually going to be one of the top point guards in this free-agent class.

2018 Free agent point guards

Unrestricted
Chris Paul (he'll return to Houston)
Isaiah Thomas
Rajon Rondo
Tony Parker

Restricted
Elfrid Payton
Fred Van Vleet
Dante Exum
Yogi Ferrell

Shooting guards
Tyreke Evans
Avery Bradley
Will Barton
Zach LaVine (restricted)
J.J. Redick
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

So which teams are actually capable of giving Smart what he wants as far as salary goes? And will those teams have interest in bringing him aboard? To find out, let’s first take a closer look at point guard situations across the league to find out:

Teams “set” at point guard in 2018-19:
Charlotte (Kemba Walker), Golden State (Steph Curry), Houston (Chris Paul), Memphis (Mike Conley), Miami (Goran Dragic), Minnesota (Jeff Teague), New Orleans (Jrue Holiday), Oklahoma City (Russell Westbrook), Philadelphia (Markelle Fultz/Ben Simmons), Portland (Damian Lillard), Sacramento (De’Aaron Fox), San Antonio (Tony Parker/Patty Mills) Toronto (Kyle Lowry), Washington (John Wall), Utah (Ricky Rubio)

Teams that could use a point guard, but are rebuilding and/or have young talent at point guard already:
Atlanta (Dennis Schroder), Brooklyn (D’Angelo Russell/Jeremy Lin), Chicago (Kris Dunn), Dallas (Dennis Smith Jr.), Denver (Jamal Murray), LA Lakers (Lonzo Ball), Milwaukee (Malcolm Brogdon/Eric Bledsoe), New York (Frank Ntilikina)

Teams that could use an upgrade at point guard but probably won’t have cap room next summer:
Cleveland (George Hill), Detroit (Reggie Jackson), LA Clippers (Milos Tedonsic), Orlando (D.J. Augustin) Phoenix (Elfrid Payton/Brandon Knight)

Atlanta (projected $20-$25 million in cap room): Smart’s age fits the Hawks’ rebuilding timetable, but this team already has a pair of smaller guards on big money contracts in Dennis Schroder and Kent Bazemore signed through 2020. The team is reportedly shopping Schroder but it’s going to be hard for them to find a taker for the remaining $45 million on his deal. There is plenty of money to spend here but it’s probably best used at other positions on the floor unless Schroder is dumped somewhere.

Brooklyn (projected $15 million in cap room): Too crowded in this backcourt for a fit with Jeremy Lin, Spencer Dinwiddie and D’Angelo Russell all under contract.

Chicago (projected $30-35 million in cap room): There is a lot of money to throw around here but there are plenty of names in the backcourt. Not only do the Bulls have a defensive-minded point guard in Kris Dunn under contract (who also struggles with shooting), but lesser names like Jerian Grant and Justin Holiday are under contract through 2019 as well. The Bulls could certainly use a player with Smart’s defensive versatility, but they have bigger needs at other positions. It’s hard to envision them forking over a big offer if they plan on re-signing Zach LaVine as well.

Dallas (up to $20-25 million in cap room): Their starting backcourt for next season is already under contract with Dennis Smith Jr. and Wesley Matthews. This a roster with a ton of holes to fill, so the guess here is that they will be aiming at far bigger fish than Smart once free agency opens up. Look for them as a potential fallback option for Smart if they miss out on those, but it’s hard to envision them tying up big money with Smart to back up Smith Jr.

Indiana (up to $20 million in cap room): Larry Bird has long been rumored to be enamored with Smart and this is an overachieving group that could use a player that’s big on intangibles like the Celtics point guard. The challenge for the Pacers though might be fit. Victor Oladipo and Darren Collison are already under contract, even though Collison could be waived (his contract is non-guaranteed) before free agency begins. Joseph already opted into his deal and Lance Stephenson has an affordable team option as well. Smart is not a significant upgrade over any of those players, so unless the Pacers clear out some bodies, it’s hard to see the Pacers spending their money on him.

LA Lakers: (up to $60 million in cap room): They will be hunting plenty of big fish and if they don’t land them, the guess here is they will want to save their extra cap space for the summer of 2019. The fact that restricted free agents must be given at least a two-year deal would work against Smart on this front, along with the presence of Lonzo Ball.

New York (significant cap room only if Enes Kanter opts out): The Knicks would need Kanter to opt out of his player option (far from a certainty) and maybe move a contract or two to carve up significant cap room. Given the current cap climate, that seems to be an unlikely bet.

Orlando (would need to renounce Gordon for major cap room): The Magic seem like exactly the kind of team that the Celtics should worry about losing Smart too. They’ve been going nowhere for years and could consider gambling on a guy like this. Then you look at their payroll and realize they have D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack (non-guaranteed) under contract for a combined $14 million next year. Yikes. The Magic also would have to say goodbye to Aaron Gordon (restricted free agent this summer) to open up cap room for Smart and that’s a long shot (barring a sign-and-trade)

Philadelphia (up to $25 million in cap room): The Joel Embiid max contract and Robert Covington extension likely takes the Sixers out of the running for Smart. When you factor in that this team will be chasing bigger fish in free agency with their potential max salary spot and have a pair of non-shooting guards in the mix already in Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons, it’s hard to see a fit here for Smart.

Phoenix (up to $15 million in cap room): They’ve got a crowded backcourt situation already and could draft a guard in Luka Doncic with the No. 1 pick. If they pass on him and let Elfrid Payton walk in free agency, they could use a player like Smart to pair with the offensive-minded Devin Booker. Still, they’ve got Brandon Knight under contract for a big money deal and roster space is tight here with 13 players signed already.

Sacramento (up to $20 million in cap room): They are drafting No. 2 and already picked their point guard of the future last year in De’Aaron Fox. It’s hard to imagine them bringing in Smart and paying him big money to be a backup.

Final Verdict

The Celtics front office has to feel good about their negotiating position when they look at these potential suitors. While it only takes one team to make a big offer, I would not bet on any of these squads meeting Smart’s asking price given their own needs and salary situations.

The bottom line for Smart is that he entering one of the tightest free agent markets in recent memory. He bet on himself this season and did little to sharply improve his stock in a season that was marred by injuries and lackluster shooting numbers. The 24-year-old still has plenty of value to a team like Boston for his defense and intangibles, but it’s going to be hard for any team to talk themselves into paying him starter-level money.

The prediction here is that Smart is making far closer to mid-level money than $12 million next year. Due to that, the odds remain very high that he remains in Boston, albeit at a salary number that he may not be pleased with.