Let’s be realistic: Anthony Davis probably wasn’t going anywhere this summer anyway.
Still, the questions about the big man’s future were rightfully swirling back in January in the wake of DeMarcus Cousins’ Achilles tear. The Pelicans were no lock to make the postseason at that time with a 27-21 record, but the front office in New Orleans admirably retooled on the fly. They added some perimeter shooting with Nikola Mirotic and a defensive-minded big man in Emeka Okafor. Those moves, combined with some sensational play from Davis and Jrue Holiday down the stretch, allowed the undermanned Pelicans to navigate a competitive playoff race and secure the No. 6 seed in the West.
Davis was swept by the Warriors in his only other taste of the postseason a couple years back, but his Pelicans have been the surprise of the postseason thus far, easily sweeping the third-seeded Blazers despite being heavy underdogs in the series.
While the surprising run shouldn’t go beyond the second-round with a matchup with the Warriors looming, that accomplishment should create some positive vibes around the team and Davis heading into this summer. The question is whether the Pelicans are set up to build off this momentum this offseason, which could position them well to keep Davis for the long haul? Let’s examine the big decisions that lie ahead for the franchise as they try to balance the books with the urgency to win now and keep Davis happy in New Orleans.
The Boogie Dilemma
The biggest question of the Pelicans’ offseason starts with the All-Star center. He’s an unrestricted free agent this summer who will be rehabbing from a brutal injury. Very few NBA players have come back as the same player from an Achilles tear, but that’s not going to stop the 27-year-old from likely demanding a max contract or close to it.
The Pelicans have the ability to give it to him (since they maintain his Bird Rights), but they will have to make a few sacrifices if they go that route. Any max deal would start at roughly $31 million per year, and that’s dangerous territory for a small-market team that already has $96 million committed in salary to nine players for next season. The Pelicans maneuvered all year long to stay out of the luxury tax this year, and with an uncertain ownership situation (following the death of Tom Benson), staying out of that tax bracket is likely to remain a priority.
The Pelicans could obviously sign the deal and try to dump some salary throughout the year, but there are not a lot of appealing contracts on the roster that aren’t already key contributors. The deals of Solomon Hill and Alexis Ajinca will cost New Orleans draft compensation to move. E’Twaun Moore and Nikola Mirotic are decent values under their current contracts, but both are also key parts of the team’s current run.
The Pelicans can obviously try to offer Cousins a deal with injury protections/guarantees worked in for them, but there’s no guarantee that he will be open to that kind of offer. Another team could swoop in with max salary space and offer the All-Star starter the max money with no strings attached. Will the Pelicans gamble on the big man to appease Davis, despite the huge risks involved?
Given the injury risk involved with Cousins as he returns from the Achilles tear, it’s not a slam dunk to max him out. The problem for the Pelicans though is that they literally have no avenue to replace him, since they’ll be over the salary cap whether they sign him or not. The odds remain in favor of bringing him back since letting him walk for nothing might be the kind of move that upsets Davis. Still, bringing him back leaves the team with virtually no long-term financial flexibility and that could be just as damaging for the Pelicans’ quest to rise in the Western Conference if Cousins isn’t close to the player he was. Factor in the reality that the Pelicans were actually better record-wise after Cousins went down, and it will give general manager Dell Demps a lot to think about this offseason.
Does Rondo have a future in New Orleans?
The veteran point guard has been a huge factor in the Pelicans’ playoff run, setting the table for Holiday and Davis throughout their four-game sweep of the Blazers. However, after signing for a bargain $2.5 million deal last summer, he’s going to be looking for a bit of a raise in the free-agent market this summer. With a weak point guard crop expected to be available, Rondo could cash in one final time as a 32-year-old. The Pelicans probably won’t be in a position to give him that raise if they keep Cousins though, due to tax concerns. Even if they don’t, New Orleans won’t have Bird Rights on the point guard, which limits their ability to retain him. They will have the mid-level exception ($8.5 million) to throw out there, but that may be needed to address other parts of the roster. Unless Rondo is willing to take a serious hometown discount, his stint in New Orleans may be a brief one.
Other methods of improvement
New Orleans traded their 2018 first-round draft pick for Mirotic back in February and their young talent on the roster (Cheick Diallo, Frank Jackson) holds no meaningful value on the trade market. Essentially, the Pelicans’ only methods of improvement will come from within and via smaller free agent deals with the mid-level exception (if it’s not used on Rondo).
While the possibility of continued growth from Davis and Holiday remains in play for the next couple seasons, a second-round exit may stay as the ceiling for this group against juggernauts like the Warriors and Rockets. Outside of rolling the dice with Cousins, they have no method of adding a third key piece, and even retaining Cousins will cost them a few rotation players.
By the time the Pelicans can offer Davis a max extension next summer, Davis will likely be in a similar boat to Kevin Garnett in the early 2000s with the Timberwolves (a good team with no realistic title aspirations). He’ll have received a bigger taste of the postseason but won’t have the true talent around him to become a contender. Whether or not that’s enough to appease the 25-year-old into re-signing remains to be seen, but the front office certainly has a lot more to sell him on after the past few weeks. That should leave the Celtics and other potential suitors seriously weighing other trade options this summer, knowing full well that Davis may never end up hitting the trade market at all.
Other NBA Observations
- The quick work by the Pelicans in Round 1 should give them a chance of seeing the Warriors at less than full strength in Round 2, at least for the start of the series. Steph Curry returned to non-contact practice this week as he recovered from his MCL injury, but his return date remains murky.
- Big decisions for the Blazers this offseason loom after their second straight postseason sweep. With no major trade assets outside of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum and some bad contracts on the books, it’s possible they could split up that duo to shake things up.
- Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer appears set on getting himself out of the Hawks rebuilding picture. After interviewing in Phoenix this last week and pulling his name out of consideration, he’s headed to New York for an interview for the Knicks gig, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com.
- Potential No. 1 draft pick Luka Doncic submitted paperwork this past week declaring for the 2018 NBA Draft. He should be in a battle with Arizona center DeAndre Ayton for that slot in the next couple of months.
- Get ready for the Kawhi Leonard rumor mill to heat up, even more, this summer after the forward missed the entire Spurs postseason run. The Lakers and Clippers are the latest two franchises to be rumored to make a run at him, if he hits the market.