5 thoughts on the Celtics-Bucks first-round matchup

The Celtics will face a young and underachieving Bucks squad in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. A few initial thoughts on the matchups and other factors that will come into play as we start to dissect the opening playoff series.

1. Bucks are not the best-case scenario for Boston, but not the worst one either: The talent level on the Bucks is impressive on paper. They will have the best player in the series in Giannis Antetokounmpo and have an edge at other positions (Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton) over the shorthanded Celtics. However, there is no denying that this is a team with question marks after underachieving all year long. The front office fired Jason Kidd at midseason with a 23-22 and his replacement, assistant coach Joe Prunty, hasn’t done much to improve that mark by closing out the year with a 21-16 mark of his own. The team has been shorthanded in the backcourt over the past couple months (no Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova) but those guys returned to action this week, giving Milwaukee a full roster to work with.

League sources indicated to BostonSportsJournal.com

that while Miami may have been the preferred opponent for the Celtics in Round 1, the Bucks still came ahead of the Wizards as far as a better matchup. Milwaukee’s lackluster defense (17th in defensive rating), limited 3-point shooting (21st in NBA) and overall inconsistency (four games was the longest winning streak all year) makes them a team the Celtics should still be favored to beat despite having the inferior personnel.

2. A revenge opportunity for Greg Monroe: The 6-foot-11 big man surprised the NBA world three years back when he elected to sign close to a max deal with the Bucks over several other suitors in free agency. He was relegated to the bench in Year 2 of the contract in Milwaukee and was dealt away to Phoenix just five games into the regular season this year by the Bucks as a matching salary in the Bledsoe deal.

Six months later, Monroe is now a pivotal part of the C’s offensive attack and he’ll get a chance to make a serious impact in this series against the Bucks' bigs. Milwaukee plays a couple of traditional centers in John Henson and Tyler Zeller, both of whom aren’t threats from beyond the arc. That’s great news for Monroe, who clearly struggles to chase stretch bigs all over the floor. While Henson is a useful shot blocker, neither he nor Zeller have the strength down low to keep Monroe off the block. The Celtics should be able to utilize Monroe’s offensive rebounding and post moves all series long, which is a crucial edge for them on a team that lacks reliable scoring options without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward in the fold.

3. The 2-3 zone will come into play: There are few teams in the NBA that you can get away with mixing some 2-3 zone in at playoff time, but the Bucks are one of them. They don’t take many 3s (26th in NBA) and they aren’t particularly good at hitting them (21st in NBA). Their traditional bigs don’t have range that extends beyond the arc and Antetokounmpo has never been a confident shooter from downtown (33 percent on the year).

The Celtics won’t need to play the zone much since they still have the best defense in the NBA and have the length on the wing to match up with the Bucks shooters. However, against the right lineups, this is a weapon that the C’s will be able to utilize to help turn Antetokounmpo into a jump shooter, while also hiding Monroe on the defensive end. There are a few players the C’s will need to keep a close eye on from the perimeter (Tony Snell, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon) but when the Bucks play traditionally big, Stevens will be able to get creative with his defense and personnel.

4. Celtics are well-equipped to slow down the Greek Freak: The All-Star and MVP candidate is the best player in this series on paper, but the Celtics still have a lot of different manpower to throw at him. Lucky for them, the injury bug has not hit this section of the roster quite as hard as the backcourt. Al Horford will see the bulk of the responsibility on this front, but the presence of Semi Ojeleye and Marcus Morris will give Brad Stevens some options to give Horford a blow here and there. Each of those guys has the strength to avoid getting bullied by Antetokounmpo in the post, as shown here by Ojeleye in a matchup back in November.



“It's going to be a team effort,” Aron Baynes said Wednesday night. “It's not one man's job. It's four or five men on a string. We got to all be playing defense and build from that. He's very talented and he's a great player, so we're going to have to lock in and do a job collectively on him.”

Ojeleye clearly has had a serious impact on this team all year long, but his defensive value lies in his strength for his size. The C’s best bet to advance in this series is by turning Antetokounmpo into a jump shooter and they have the right defenders to do that in Morris, Horford and the rookie.

5. The Bucks are at full strength, but will they have time to mesh? Everyone was available on the active roster for Milwaukee on Wednesday night, but it didn’t do them any good as they got trounced by the Sixers in Philadelphia. Brogdon just returned to the lineup after a torn quad injury a couple months back, while Dellavedova played his first game in over two months after recovering from a severely sprained ankle. The presence of both guards gives Prunty a lot of options to choose from among a bench unit that also includes Jabari Parker, Jason Terry, Tyler Zeller, Brandon Jennings, Sterling Brown, Shabazz Muhammed and Thon Maker.

There will be plenty of mixing and matching going on within that group and that’s not necessarily a good thing for a Bucks defense that ranks among the worst of the East playoff teams (17th in defensive rating). The Celtics will be undermanned, but they have had a few weeks to get used to playing with the talent they’ll have available for this series. The same can’t be said for this Bucks squad. Whether they find a rhythm to overcome that remains to be seen, but their performance on Wednesday night in Philadelphia was not a good start.