Eight months is generally too little time to pass judgment on any trade in the NBA, particularly when draft picks are involved. However, Kyrie Irving’s latest health issues over the past week make it feel like an appropriate time to take a closer look at that blockbuster deal, nearly one year after it went down between the Celtics and Cavs.
Incredibly, with the postseason approaching, just one player involved in the trade will be active during the playoffs for the team to which they were dealt. Ante Zizic is the lone man left standing in Cleveland, while Jae Crowder (Utah), Isaiah Thomas (LA Lakers) and Irving (out for year) will not be suiting up for their original teams this postseason.
The situation with Irving’s knee has left many to question whether the Celtics ended up making a mistake in trading for an All-Star point guard that evidently had physical question marks at the time of the deal. What would the Celtics' current situation have looked like if they stood pat? And how much differently should we view this deal a year later? Let’s break down the various parts of the transaction for some answers.
Original trade: Celtics trade Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic, a 2018 unprotected first-round pick via Brooklyn and a 2020 second round pick via Miami for Irving.
Isaiah Thomas
Thomas played 32 games this season between the Lakers and Cavs. He averaged 15.6 points and 5.0 assists after the Cavs traded him to the Lakers at the trade deadline, before electing to undergo season-ending surgery.
Analysis: The Celtics obviously couldn’t have anticipated just how severe Thomas’ hip issues were at the time of the trade but they clearly moved him at the right time from a value standpoint.From a big picture perspective, Thomas was coming off a career year and was entering the final season of his contract. Trading him during the summer (with the prospect of a healthy return) is the last time they could have received anything of real worth for him. At the time of the trade, he was arguably the second- or third-most important trade chip involved (after the Brooklyn pick and Crowder’s bargain contract). The Cavs clearly knew his hip problems were a major risk (hence the holdup to the trade), but the Celtics were able to sell the Cavs on the possibility that he may have been able to return to form during the 2017-18 season. That clearly did not happen. Thomas posted career-worst numbers in shooting percentages and turnovers and lacked his trademark speed on the floor. The Cavs simply used him as an expiring contract in their trade for Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. in February, nothing more. Based on that, the Celtics can feel good about including him in the deal at a time when he had any kind of value.
Jae Crowder
Crowder has played 77 games this year between the Cavs and Jazz. He has averaged 9.5 points and 3.4 rebounds per game.
Analysis: Like with Thomas, it’s hard to argue that the Celtics did not move Crowder at the ideal time, with three years remaining on his bargain five-year pact (average salary of $7 million per year). After posting career-high numbers across the board (ppg, 3-point percentage, field-goal percentage) during the 2016-17 season, the small forward has fallen back to earth hard during this 2017-18 campaign. He never found a good fit in Cleveland’s free-flowing offensive system, which relies heavily on 3-point shooters to perform well around LeBron. Crowder has regressed heavily in that department (32 percent from deep), which is a couple percentage points below his season average.
Those struggles and an urgency to makeover a roster with questionable chemistry motivated the Cavs to sell to sell low on the veteran swingman as they dumped the salary of Iman Shumpert with Crowder in exchange for Rodney Hood at the trade deadline. Hood is arguably a better all-around player than Crowder, but he’s also due a new pricy contract this offseason, while Crowder is under team control through 2021. The Cavs didn’t have the patience to wait out Crowder’s slump or simply didn’t believe he would snap out of the funk. Either way, the C’s did a good job of maximizing this asset before it soured on them.
Ante Zizic
We’ll have to wait a few years to get a reasonable read on Zizic’s value in this deal as the rookie center has spent the majority of his year playing for the Canton Charge in the G-League. He’s averaged just six minutes per game in Cleveland in over 30 appearances, but his value as a traditional big without 3-point shooting range appears to have a relatively low ceiling in today’s NBA. Players like Zizic are not in high demand, even though his mobility and finishing ability is appealing. He clearly has time to develop into a consistent NBA rotation big, but he is not there yet at age 21. On a Celtics team that would have had Aron Baynes and Daniel Theis playing ahead of him, he would have probably received the same limited playing time he saw all year long in Cleveland.
Brooklyn’s first-round pick
From day one, this has been the crown jewel of the trade package. By making the deal when they did, the Celtics rolled the dice on this asset, hoping it would not live up to the elite value (a top-5 pick) the Cavs likely were banking on when they made the deal.
While no direct answer will be made on said pick until the lottery is held next month, the odds are shining nicely in the C’s favor at the moment. The Nets currently are guaranteed to fall somewhere between the sixth- and ninth-worst record in the NBA this year, based on how they finish their final two games of the regular season.
Those slots in the lottery will give the Cavs between a five percent (ninth-worst record) and 21 percent chance (sixth-worst record) of moving up into the top-3 picks of the 2018 NBA Draft. The far more probable scenario is that the Nets’ pick falls within the 6-10 pick range, which would force them to miss out on elite prospects like DeAndre Ayton, Luka Doncic and Marvin Bagley in this draft.
Would the Celtics have been better off without making a deal?
Even when you consider the injury issues that ended Irving’s season prematurely for the Celtics, can you really argue they would have been better off not making the deal after year one? It’s certainly a tough sell when you factor in all the pieces of the puzzles. When healthy, Irving raised his game to a new level in Boston and looked like an All-Star that was very much capable of being the No. 1 or No. 2 option on a championship team. There are injury questions for the long-term, but the Celtics have not committed big money to Irving yet, making that point moot for the time being.
If the Celtics had passed on Irving last summer, would they have been in position to land an All-Star like him this offseason? Not necessarily with those same assets they used in the original deal. Thomas ended up being damaged goods. Crowder’s offensive numbers came back down to earth. Zizic wouldn’t have built any additional value in a Celtics uniform. The other X-factor is that Nets pick. If lottery luck hits, the Cavs will look like the winners here, but if the odds hold, that’s merely going to be a middle of the lottery selection. That’s far lower than the Cavs originally anticipated at the time of the deal, according to league sources.
The bottom line is with no cap room on the horizon after signing Gordon Hayward and volatile trade assets in their arsenal, the Celtics should have no regrets about the Irving deal. That may change if Irving’s future prognosis changes or if the ping pong balls fall Cleveland’s way. Still, it’s evident nearly one year later that the C’s maximized almost every asset they used in the trade. Irving’s value has dipped as well with his recent injuries but he’s still a perennial All-Star in his prime. It’s hard to imagine a Crowder/mid-lottery Brooklyn pick trade package would be enough to pry Irving away from the Cavs this offseason.
Could the Celtics have held onto the pick and put it toward another trade package this offseason? In theory, yes, but they would have no way of knowing a player like Kawhi Leonard could become available. The fact remains the C's still have the assets to get a player like Leonard or Anthony Davis if either hits the trade market. In the meantime, the C’s gambled early on a star they knew they could get in Irving, in part because they had some potentially diminishing assets and no better name seemed likely to become available last summer. Time will tell if it was the right deal, but it’s hard to argue they should have done anything differently even after a disappointing start to the Irving era from a health perspective.
Other NBA Quick Hits
- Hornets have reportedly offered their general manager job to former Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak. No deal has officially been made between the two sides, but Kupchak will have his work cut out for him in Charlotte over the next few years with a bloated payroll full of overpriced veteran deals and minimal young talent with potential.
- Jimmy Butler returned from his knee injury just in time for Minnesota on Friday night, helping the Wolves stay in the playoff picture for the time being with a win over the Lakers. They could end up playing the Nuggets on the final night of the regular season with a playoff spot on the line.
- Massachusetts native Nerlens Noel was suspended for the five games this week after violating the NBA's anti-drug program. After an injury-riddled year in Dallas, he'll be looking at some modest offers in unrestricted free agency this summer.
- Tough break for Omri Casspi with the Warriors. He took a discount veteran's minimum deal with the defending champs before the season and was just cut by Golden State on Saturday so they could clear a roster spot for standout two-way guard Quinn Cook.
- A couple former Celtics found spots back in the league this week as Jordan Crawford signed with the Pelicans, while MarShon Brooks earned a guaranteed contract with the Grizzlies after a few standout games on his 10-day deal.
