Price: Why Patriots and OBJ aren't a good match

The looming contractual showdown between the Giants and Odell Beckham, Jr., sparked some conversation around New England Monday about the possibility of Beckham to the Patriots. When we start to think about the sight of Beckham in New England, I keep coming back to the same phrase: Timing is everything, both on the field and off.

For starters, here’s what we know: Beckham apparently wants $20 million a year. Given their history, it's unlikely the Patriots will ever give a wide receiver $20 million a year. So if he’s trying to facilitate a deal with that number in mind, it’s not going to happen, regardless of how many back-and-forth Instagram conversations that might have taken place between Tom Brady and Beckham. If, however, that $20 million represents a starting point in a series of negotiations, well, that might be another matter altogether. But until that point, that sort of money makes this a non-starter.

But let’s dive into some hypotheticals. How would a Beckham-for-Brandin Cooks swap sound? This is one area where timing comes into play. Cooks is coming off a 1,000-yard season, has distinguished himself by being a low-maintenance teammate, and already has a year in New England’s system. It wasn’t perfect, but the timing he’s built with Brady has created a foundation when you start to look ahead to 2018. Beckham has apparently charmed Brady enough where the two have had a pleasant enough series of exchanges, but that’s certainly no guarantee of on-field success.

Then, there's the market. This is a great offseason to be a free-agent wide receiver. And while teams have different cap situations, there’s no denying that, even after coming off an injury-plagued 2017, Beckham is looking to cash it at the right time. When he says he wants $20 million annually, he has to be aware that this year represents an incredibly inflated market for wide receivers. The truth is that when he looks around and puts his resume down on the table next to some of the guys who got paid this offseason, that sort of payday doesn’t seem completely bananas, especially when you consider the following wide receivers and what they've agreed to over the last month:

Mike Evans: 61 games, 309 catches, 4,579 yards, 32 TDs — $16.5 million average from the Bucs
Sammy Watkins: 52 games, 192 catches, 3,052 yards, 25 TDs — $16 million average from the Chiefs
Allen Robinson: 42 games, 202 catches, 2,848 yards, 22 TDs — $14 million average from Chicago
Beckham: 47 games, 313 catches, 4,424 yards, 38 TDs

(Just for fun, let’s add Cooks to that mix — 58 games, 280 catches, 3,943 yards, 27 TDs.)

Looking at those numbers, I can’t blame Beckham for asking for $20 million. If I see Evans (a guy who has one 90-catch season) getting a deal that nets him an average of $16.5 million a year, I wonder about my situation: I can almost match those totals with almost 15 fewer games played. At the very least, Beckham's own sense of timing when it comes to looking ahead is also in play here. If he can hit the reset button on his career and prove himself to be a good and productive teammate in New England in the last year of his current deal, it’ll almost certainly guarantee a sizable payday when it comes to his next contract. You can say a lot of things about Beckham, but he’s savvy enough to know how to maneuver himself into the best possible situation.

Of course, the flip side is that the market is never going to be this off-the-charts amazing again. And if you’re the Patriots and you are already fairly well-stocked on offense going into 2018 — Cooks, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman — you can afford to ride out the free-agent roller coaster and become buyers next offseason when the market won’t be as drunk. (If Beckham blinks and comes back for 2018, plays out his deal and hits the open market, the Patriots could theoretically chase him then and not have to give up any draft capital or personnel in return.)

For New England, there’s also the idea of financial priorities, at least at this stage of the calendar. If they’re are looking to add an impact player right now, it’s on defense. Even subtracting Danny Amendola and Dion Lewis from the mix, this is still going to be the sort of offense that should score 25 to 30 points per game. If they want to add a dynamic playmaker, it should be on defense.

There were people Monday who said Beckham with the Patriots would be like when Randy Moss rejuvenated his career when he arrived in New England prior to the 2007 season. This is not that. Moss was well on his way to a Hall of Fame career when he joined the Patriots at the age of 30. He had four years of 80-plus catches and had postseason wins with the Vikings, all while playing with a variety of quarterbacks. Beckham has had three-plus electric seasons with the Giants (which have included three years of 90-plus catches), but they’ve been punctuated with zero playoff wins.

Look, when it comes to standoffs between players and teams at this stage of the calendar, you take everything with a grain of salt. There’s a lot of time between now and the start of training camp, and when you draw an initial line in the sand, often times it can get redrawn and drawn again before the end of July. There’s also some uncertainty when it comes to the Giants and what they’re gong through. New GM Dave Gettleman is making some seismic moves, and the comments from ownership that suggest anyone can be dealt after a 3-13 season should leave the roster on edge.

At the end of the day, the idea of Brady-to-Beckham would be fun to watch. And the occasionally combustible wide receiver would provide great copy for us in the media. But ultimately, from New England's perspective, this is one deal the Patriots should pass on.