Kyrie Irving’s availability for the first round of the postseason is far from a sure thing after the All-Star point guard underwent surgery to remove a wire from his left knee on Saturday. The Celtics announced a three-to-six week recovery timetable for the 25-year-old and with the start of the playoffs looming in under three weeks, it’s a distinct possibility that the Celtics will have to claw their way out of the first round without his services.
That challenge may be no easy feat for a team that is already down three rotation players in Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis. With four teams still in the mix for the potential No. 7 seed in the East, it is time to take a closer look at the competition for what now looms as a pivotal matchup.
Standings
- Pacers 42-31
- Wizards 40-32 (1.5 GB)
- Heat 39-34 (3 GB)
- Bucks 38-34 (3.5 GB)
Head-to-head decided tiebreakers
- Heat over Bucks (3-0)
- Pacers over Bucks (3-1)
- Wizards over Pacers (2-1)
- Wizards over Bucks (2-2 head-to-head, but Wizards win via divisional record)
Head-to-head undecided tiebreakers
- Heat lead Pacers 2-1, with a final game looming Sunday in Indiana.
- Heat tied with Wizards (2-2, the divisional record will be tiebreaker)
Pacers (42-31)
Games remaining:
Games with playoff meaning:
Games against ‘’tanking’ teams:
Opponents’ winning percentage:
.561 (5th toughest in NBA)
Analysis:
Can the Pacers technically be in the race for the third seed and the seventh seed at the same time? Technically yes, but their remaining schedule makes them a far more likely candidate to drop down further in the East standings than move up.
This overachieving squad has come back down to earth in the past week-plus, dropping three of their past five games as the quality of competition increased.
Six of their next games will come on the road and only two of their opponents have sub .500 records (Sacramento is the only tanking team). They will catch a break by facing the shorthanded Warriors a couple times over that span (who could still be down several All-Stars) but west coast trips are never easy, especially this late in the season.
Bottom line: If the Pacers lose to the Heat at home on Sunday, they will only be two games away from the seventh seed, and will lose any head-to-head tiebreakers with the Heat and Wizards (both of which have far easier schedules). Taking care of business against Miami gives them some needed breathing room, otherwise, they loom as a real threat to fall to No. 7 in East.
Wizards (40-32)
Games remaining:
Games with playoff meaning:
Games against ’tanking’ teams:
Opponents’ winning percentage:
.484 (18th toughest in NBA)
Analysis:
Like the Pacers, the Wizards have faded of late, dropping four of their last six games to drop them closer to the seventh seed (1.5 games ahead) than the three seed (three games back). An easy closing schedule should help get them back on track, however. Nearly half of their remaining games come against tanking squads and their late-game matchups against elite opponents (Houston, Boston) are likely to not matter for those teams. The Celtics will be shorthanded, obviously, due to their injuries with the No. 2 seed wrapped up. The Rockets could also have the No. 1 seed wrapped out in West by that point too, with no need to play their stars big minutes.
The other wildcard here for the Wizards is the looming return of
John Wall
. The All-Star point guard went through a full-time contact practice for the first time with the team on Saturday since undergoing a knee debridement procedure seven weeks ago. There is still no timetable on his return to game action but he should help the Wizards close out on a strong note.
Barring some ugly performances against inferior opponents, it’s hard to see the Wizards falling below the sixth seed in the East.
Heat (39-34)
Games remaining:
Games with playoff meaning:
Games against ’tanking’ teams:
Opponents’ winning percentage:
.454 (25th toughest in NBA)
Analysis:
At this point, they are the odds-on favorite to land the No. 7 seed, but that can change in a hurry if they take care of business down the stretch. They have the easiest schedule remaining of these four teams in the running.
Their ability to move up in the standings could come into focus quite quickly though as their next two games come against the Pacers and Cavs. If they find a way to win both of those, they won’t face a playoff opponent until the final two games of the regular season. It’s highly possible that those two contests (vs. Oklahoma City, at Toronto) will be meaningless for those squads as well, opening the door to a potential 7-2 finish or better.
However, it will be interesting to see how
Erik Spoelstra
plays this run. The Heat may find the matchup against the Kyrie-less Celtics in the first round preferable so they could technically try to take the foot off the gas and position themselves to stay in the seventh seed. However, with just a half-game edge over the Bucks and the ability to still climb several spots in the East standings, it’s hard to envision that scenario right now. Their eventual ceiling will become much more clear by Wednesday.
Bucks (38-34)
Games remaining:
Games with playoff meaning:
Games against ’tanking’ teams:
Opponents’ winning percentage:
.504 (14th toughest in NBA)
Analysis:
Despite the firing of
Jason Kidd
a couple months ago, this squad has continued playing inconsistent basketball for the entire campaign. A closing schedule heavy on playoff opponents makes that pattern unlikely to change much over the next three weeks. The best-case scenario for them would seem to be to jump up to the seventh spot, but it’s hard to imagine them beating out Miami with a west coast swing still on their schedule.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
also went down with a sprained ankle last week and his status for this week’s games are in question. With two key members of the rotation (
Malcolm Brogdon, Matthew Dellavedova
) not expect to return until April, this group looks destined to be stuck with a first-round matchup with the Raptors in the eighth seed.
Order of preference for Celtics first round opponents
1. Pacers: Victor Oladipo
will be a handful to guard without the help of
Marcus Smart
, but no one else on this team should scare Boston.
Al Horford
can slow down Myles Turner, while Brad Stevens would have a strong coaching edge over Nate McMillan in a playoff series.
2. Heat:
3. Bucks:
4. Wizards:
Bradley Beal
Handicapping likely first-round opponents based on closing schedule and other factors.
- Heat
- Pacers
- Bucks
- Wizards
Other NBA News and Notes
- Isaiah Thomas was sidelined this weekend to rest his sore hip with the Lakers for the final two games of their road trip. He has played better out west, but his shooting percentages are still disappointing (38% FG, 32% 3pt) in his new home. His market value this summer in free agency will be intriguing. He may end up having to take a one-year deal to prove he’s healthy again.
- Nets pick update: Currently, Brooklyn holds the sixth-worst record in the league with just nine regular season games remaining. With six teams bunched up within three games of each other in the middle of the lottery pack, the Cavs’ could get anywhere from the third-to-eighth best draft odds with Brooklyn’s first round selection.
- Sixers head coach Brett Brown still won’t rule out the possibility of a Markelle Fultz return down the stretch of the regular season. The rookie point guard has been working out for weeks but hasn’t played in a game since October due to “soreness and scapular muscle imbalance in his right shoulder."
- Kevin Love returned to the lineup for the Cavs this week after missing nearly two months with a broken hand. He has scored 20.3 ppg since his return, which has helped the Cavs roll off a three-game winning streak despite the absence of head coach Ty Lue (health issues).
- Like Irving, Steph Curry is expected to be sidelined for the next 3-6 weeks as he recovers from a sprained left MCL that he suffered on Friday night. With Kevin Durant (ribs) and Klay Thompson (thumb) also sidelined, you can pencil the Warriors into the No. 2 seed out West since their chances of catching the Rockets for the top spot have vanished.
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