Most analysts agree that measuring defense is the most challenging component of baseball’s ever-growing wave of analytics. There are plenty of variables to consider, which leads to intense debates about how good – or poor – certain players are defensively.
It’s the most imperfect of all modern measurements.
San Diego first baseman Eric Hosmer seems to be the poster child for such a debate. While Hosmer has won multiple Gold Gloves and is praised by those who watch him on a regular basis, some defensive metrics insist he’s merely average.
Strangely, while opinion is not quite as varied, Jackie Bradley Jr.’s outfield play is subject to debate. He appears to be an elite center fielder, but some metrics have him as only slightly above average, and ranked far behind a handful of other center fielders. Based on the latter, a recent story on Yahoo! Sports ranked Bradley as one of the most overrated players in the game.
How can this be?
Anyone who has seen Bradley play more than a handful of games has been witness to his sparkling work in center. Bradley gets terrific jumps on balls, almost always takes the most efficient routes and possesses one of the game’s strongest throwing arms.
So why do some metrics not reflect that? Why, for instance, did Total Zone’s Total Fielding Runs Above Average have Bradley at an unimaginable minus-3 last year? Why, when teammate Mookie Betts led all outfielders with 31 runs saved, was Bradley credited with just 10? Is there that much disparity between the two? And why did a ranking by Baseball Savant on MLB.com have Bradley ranked only seventh in baseball in the category of Outs Above Average?
These are questions that Bradley sometimes wonders about.
“I don’t know to calculate it,’’ said Bradley recently. “I don’t know the ins or outs or what they do to calculate it. Obviously, they have really smart people (working on this). All I know is that I just try to catch that ball and do the best I can and help my team by making plays and saving runs. That’s my goal out there.
"My question would be, what can I do to make myself systematically better? I want to be able to do what I do and still (have that reflected in the metrics). This is a numbers game, right? I want my numbers to reflect something positive as well."
Here are three reasons why Bradley’s metrics don’t truly reflect his defensive brilliance:
Both the ballpark and the outfielders with whom he plays hurt him.
“There are balls at Fenway I can’t get to because there’s a wall there,’’ stated Bradley. “In most other places, I could get to them.’’
While this isn’t true for MLB’s StatCast, which takes into account configurations of each ballpark, others metrics don’t take that into account and this penalizes Bradley.
Some balls hit off the left-center field wall that Bradley would undoubtedly have had the ability to track down, instead clang off the wall for doubles.
The same goes for playing with, in particular, Betts in right. Betts is athletic enough to cover the enormous patch of real estate that constitutes right field in Fenway and sometimes, with shifts in place, ranges over to catch balls in right-center that Bradley himself could otherwise easily catch.
Bradley’s amazing instincts may actually work against him.
His reads and ability to get great jumps could work against Bradley, since some metrics place an emphasis on how far an outfielder had to run to make a catch and reward accordingly. But because Bradley positions himself well, often breaks on balls before a ball is hit, he doesn’t always get the proper credit for his range.
“I probably could dive a little bit more. That might help,’’ said Bradley, a smile creasing his face.
We’re living in the Golden Age of Centerfielders and Bradley has a lot of competition.
Zach Scott, the Red Sox vice president of baseball research and development, notes players are matched against others at the same position. Think of the center fielders in the American League alone – Tampa Bay’s Kevin Kiermaier, Toronto’s Kevin Pillar, Minnesota’s Byron Buxton and Los Angeles’s Mike Trout are all elite defenders, and as such, they set the bar almost impossibly high for the position.
In this regard, being rated as the third or fourth – or even fifth – best outfielder in this group represents no shame.
Regardless of how he’s ranked, Bradley feels appreciation from the Red Sox.
“I think this organization knows,’’ he said. “They don’t need to see numbers. They can see the game themselves. And I think people sometimes get away from that, actually just watching the game for yourself and seeing the small, intricate things that make a play happen.
“Most people say, ‘Oh, he made the catch.’ But you don’t see what I did before the catch or know the positioning I made mid-pitch. Or the jump and how I started running as the batter was swinging – certain things like that. It’s just hard to quantify everything. I guess they can only do the best they can as I try to continue to get better.’’
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