Bedard: Nate Solder's pending free agency feels a lot like Devin McCourty in '15

Could history repeat itself this offseason for the Patriots when it comes to the pending free agency of one of their bedrock players?

In 2015, the talk about Devin McCourty was, "He's not leaving. Why would he leave?" He ended up having no shortage of suitors, agreed to a deal with another team and then, when faced with the prospect of losing one of their leaders, the Patriots shelled out a top-of-the-market contract that pretty much represented the sum total of their offseason.

Could the same thing happen with Nate Solder?

McCourty was one of their own. Drafted in the first round by New England, he switched positions to become one of the better players in the league at his new spot. In many ways, he was a perfect Patriot, as one the best people on the team and a leader off the field. He was one of the faces of the team as someone who always spoke to the media, no matter the circumstance.

The Patriots probably thought he was going to be one of them forever, and why wouldn't they? He was an ideal fit for what they did. He had put down roots. The player and team had just won a Super Bowl, and were perennial contenders. When it came time for the player to hit free agency, the team asked itself, "Why would he leave?" As a result, there weren't any serious talks about a contract extension, and the team placed the franchise tag on Stephen Gostkowski rather than McCourty.

It turns out that the Patriots miscalculated the situation, and it hit them right in the wallet. Not only was McCourty prepared to leave New England, he called Bill Belichick to thank him for the previous five seasons after agreeing to a contract with the Eagles, while the Giants, Jaguars and Titans were also in the mix for McCourty's services.

Actually hearing McCourty say he was prepared to leave finally got Belichick and the Patriots to fork over a mammoth five-year deal worth $47.5 million. It included a record $28.5 million in total guarantees a new mark for a safety.

In many ways, that move worked out well for the Patriots. McCourty continues to be everything he was before the money, and he's rock for the squad.

"Devin just does a tremendous job – the leadership that he’s given us, the professionalism, the embodiment of the team and putting the team first, I mean, on every level. I don’t know how it could be really much better or any better than what it is," Belichick said in December. "I mean, he does a tremendous job every day from 7 in the morning when things start going here, to our meetings, to our walkthroughs, to the practice field, to the film sessions, to game days, to after the game – the way he handles every situation, he does a great job for us. The leadership he gives us is tremendous. I mean, I don’t know what else to say."

But it also limited them in what they could do that offseason. Basically, their big-ticket outside free agent was Jabaal Sheard, at about $5.5 million per season.

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I'm not saying that the McCourty signing clogged up their cap, because his hit was only $6 million. But the $15 million signing bonus likely affected their budget for the season.

The alternative was not to re-sign McCourty, make do with some sort of mix of Patrick Chung, Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon, and spend McCourty's money in other areas where it's harder to hide players, like at free safety. In the end, the Patriots thought it was most wise to solidify the middle of their defense and make do in other spots.

That brings us to Solder and the 2018 Patriots.

The Patriots are basically in the same spot with him as they were with McCourty. Everything you can say about McCourty on and off the field, you can say the same about Solder. The Patriots didn't sign him to a contract extension, and the team couldn't franchise him. So now Solder will hit free agency.

The Patriots likely feel that he'd prefer to remain with the team and, like McCourty, that's likely the case. Solder has always played his best for Dante Scarnecchia, and the Solders (wife Lexi is from Connecticut) have made a home in New England with two young children. Son Hudson has twice undergone treatment for bilateral Wilms tumors, a form of kidney cancer, at the Jimmy Fund Clinic, so that's obviously a consideration.

But, like McCourty, Solder is likely to be the most sought-after player at his position in free agency, and he'll likely get an offer that trumps anything from New England initially if he entertains other potential deals.

If Solder does the same thing as McCourty — goes to the Patriots with a top-of-the-market offer (he should easily get a $12 million offer) — will the Patriots match it? Or will they call his bluff, say no, and tell Tom Brady his left tackle for next season is either LaAdrian Waddle, Cam Fleming (both cheaper free agents), or someone else?

You can make the argument that it's much easier to get by at safety than left tackle without a top-notch player. Then again, Belichick can always rely on Scarnecchia to figure something out and get the job done.

If the Patriots do match a contract with an annual value of $12 million with a little more than that in the former of a signing bonus, they'll likely have room for about two or three Sheard-like moves. Is that enough for a defense that needs help on all three levels and an offense may or may not need a new left tackle?

Or should the Patriots just let Solder — who, unlike McCourty, hasn't been the most durable player — walk, let Scarnecchia figure out the line, and infuse the defense with playmakers at end, linebacker and cornerback?

It's a tough choice. Ultimately, it may come down to a situation similar to McCourty, and whether or not Solder decides to go with his first and last big-money contract playing the dangerous game of professional football.

The belief here is Solder returns on a three-year deal worth between $10-11 million per season, and that limits a bit what the Patriots can do in free agency. But, like McCourty, it will be worth it.