MLB Notebook: Red Sox would consider adding payroll despite luxury tax ramifications

When the Red Sox finally signed off on their much-delayed five-year, $110 million deal with J.D. Martinez last week, the supposition around the game was that they were through adding to their payroll.

After all, Martinez’s signing lifted the Red Sox’ 2018 payroll – including salaries for the 40-man roster, benefits and insurance and contractual obligations to those no longer with the organization – to approximately $233 million, the highest in the game.

Already, the Red Sox have blown past the first competitive balance (or luxury) tax threshold, which is set at $197 million for this season. The Red Sox will pay a 20 percent surcharge on all money above and beyond the $197 million level, meaning that the team currently owes a tax of approximately $9 million on the overage.

Should the Sox exceed the next threshold at $237, the team would be taxed at a rate of 42.5 percent for everything over $197 million.

But what really dissuades teams from avoiding that next threshold are penalties that aren’t taxes, but rather, competitive penalties. Teams also forfeit 10 spots in the following year’s draft and lose $500,000 in international pool money, restricting the ability to compete for the most attractive free agents from the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and other baseball hotbeds of talent.

Those are significant disincentives to free spending and the thought was, that would be enough to stop the Sox from adding payroll.

But perhaps not.

An industry source indicates that while the Sox will strive to stay under the $237 million threshold, that's not an absolute. They aren’t willing to say definitively that they won’t go over the mark “under special circumstances.’’

Currently, the Red Sox have some – but not a lot – of wiggle room. But if the team were to be hit by a significant injury in-season and needed to add a veteran player to make up for that loss, the team would consider doing so.

According to the source, the Red Sox are far more worried about protecting their depleted inventory of prospects than they are about avoiding higher payroll taxes or the penalties that accompany them.

As such, should the Sox need to supplement their roster at the trade deadline in July, they would far prefer to take on a big salary in a trade rather than sacrifice a couple of top prospects.

Until then, with every dollar being watched to provide the team with as much maneuverability as possible during the season, it will be fascinating to see how payroll impacts the team’s final roster spots.

Someone like Brock Holt, due to earn $2.225 million in 2018, could well be dealt in order for the Sox to save money. If the team, for instance, went with Deven Marrero or another inexpensive option as a utility infielder, it could save more than $1.6 million – the difference between Holt’s salary and one given to someone like Marrero, being paid just above league minimum of $545,000.

(A similar cost-saving measure won’t be taken at the catcher’s position. Theoretically, the Sox could keep Blake Swihart as the team’s backup catcher over Sandy Leon and save another $1.3 million in salary. But because Leon, scheduled to make $1,95 million, is revered by the pitching staff and experienced and trusted catching is so difficult to find, such a move is not under consideration).

As it is, the current payroll figure will likely prevent the Red Sox from taking advantage of any bargains that appear as Opening Day nears and some free agents lower their contractual demands out of a sense of desperation.

But the in-season flexibility necessary is essential for a team with championship designs, and the Sox appear willing to literally pay the price if additions are needed as the year unfolds.

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With the benefit of hindsight, did the Red Sox react prematurely when they re-signed Mitch Moreland this offseason?

Put another way: would they have been better off holding off and grabbing Logan Morrison as their lefthanded option at first base?

That point is worth asking, with the benefit of hindsight.

To recap: the Red Sox got Moreland for two-years and $13 million in mid-December, with the idea that, if they didn’t go on to acquire Martinez, he would handle the majority of games at first, with Hanley Ramirez the primary DH.

Now that Martinez is indeed in the fold, Moreland’s role will be significantly reduced. Instead of playing first against right-handed pitching (about 70-75 percent of games) and occasional DH time, Moreland will now see limited playing time at first, but can come off the bench as a late-inning defensive replacement for Ramirez, and/or serve as the team’s primary lefty pinch-hitter.

Meanwhile, Morrison signed a one-year deal for $6.5 million – the same base as Moreland – with an option that can either be vested, or picked up by the Twins for 2019, also at $6.5 million.

So, the likelihood is that the Twins and Red Sox will each pay out $13 million to their respective players over the next two seasons.

But would the Sox be better off with Morrison rather than Moreland?

From the power standpoint, it would appear so. After making some adjustments to his swing the previous offseason, Morrison hit 38 homers last year, a career-best. Moreland, on the other hand, hit 22 homers, the same total he had in his previous season with the Texas Rangers. In fact, over his last four fully healthy seasons in the big leagues, Moreland has hit either 22 or 23 homers, so he’s been nothing if not consistent from the standpoint of power.

On the other hand, it’s reasonable to ask whether Morrison’s power spurt last year might be something of an outlier. Until last year, he had hit more than 17 homers in a season just once. Another ominous sign: while Morrison hit 24 homers before the All-Star break last season, he managed just 14 in the second half, suggesting either that teams adjusted to his new approach.

And there’s little doubt that Moreland is the superior defender. According to Baseball Info Solution, he saved 10 runs above average at first while Morrison was determined to save one. Moreland is also a previous Gold Glove winner.

A baseball source indicated that the Red Sox did indeed have an internal conversation about Morrison this past winter, with a number of scouts arguing for his signing. What’s unclear is the timeline: was Morrison viewed as a better option than Moreland, or a cheaper alternative to Martinez?

Perhaps the best way to view the choice is this: the Sox stayed with the player they already knew, one who fits in well with the rest of the clubhouse, and the one who has been more predictable with his performance.

It’s possible – likely, even --  that, at a time when teams value homers like never before, that Morrison would provide more power. But focusing on that alone might be shortsighted.

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Among the many changes taking place in the game is a fundamental one regarding fastball location.

In the past, managers and pitching coaches would instruct their pitchers to keep their fastballs down in the strike zone.

“If you’re going to miss, miss down,’’ was a basic tenet, taught to Little Leaguers and big leaguers alike.

But that, too, is changing.

Now, paradoxically, pitchers are being coached to throw the four-seam fastball at the upper reaches of the strike zone.

The reason? Like so much in today’s game, it has to do with launch angles.

“Hitters have adjusted their swings,’’ offered pitching coach Dana LeVangie. “We were taught as young pitchers to establish the strike zone down. Work down, and underneath the strike zone. But hitters have taken an edge to that and have learned to groove their swings for balls at the bottom of the strike zone. They’re learning at a younger age how to get loft on a ball. Now, we’re trying to combat that approach.

“The biggest thing is, you try to pitch effectively with what you have (in your repertoire). If a guy’s a sinkerball pitcher, then how do you combat a guy with a low-ball swing? Well, you work lower than low, you work in and off the plate. But you have to have another pitch to work with and the four-seamer has become more popular of late. (The contrast) of north and south has been really effective over the last couple of years.’’

LeVangie warns that pitchers have to miss up, rather than risk throwing pitches in a hitter’s “happy zone’’ – the middle of the strike zone.

The change is part of the constant cat-and-mouse games that go on between pitchers and hitters.

“You’re always trying to stay ahead of the curve,’’ he said. “Whoever makes the adjustments quickest is going to be successful.’’

 

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