Analysis: Why waiting proved to be the right approach for the Red Sox on J.D. Martinez

FORT MYERS, Fla. – Patience finally paid off for the Red Sox Monday.

After months of back-and-forth, stare-downs and posturing, the Red Sox reached an agreement with free agent slugger J.D. Martinez on a five-year deal worth $110 million, according to a source. The deal is contingent on Martinez passing a physical. The deal, according to numerous reports, includes opt-out clauses after both the second and third seasons.

The contract is front-loaded, with salaries of $25 million in each of the first two seasons. The final three years, meanwhile, are worth an average of $20 million per season, with the proviso that Martinez could go back out on the market and earn a more lucrative deal for himself.

BSJ ANALYSIS:

As far back as September and October, when the Red Sox conducted internal meetings on the direction they wished to take in the off-season, Martinez was identified as the team’s top target.

There was familiarity with him, since Dave Dombrowski had signed him off the scrap-heap when he was released by Houston in the middle of spring training in 2014. But more than anything, Martinez was the perfect antidote for what ailed the Sox – a lack of power.

Martinez hit 45 homers – or about 30 percent of the team’s total for 2017 – and would provide the Red Sox with a muscular, run-producing bat in the middle of the lineup. As an added bonus, because he was traded in his walk-year, Martinez was ineligible for a qualifying offer, and thus, could come without compensation for a team signing him.

But the Sox, according to major league source, were disheartened when Martinez had switched agents during the season, hiring Scott Boras to represent him in negotiations. What seemed like a sensible fit and a deal that could get done relatively quickly was suddenly far more problematic.

Boras, the Sox knew, had a reputation for waiting deep into the off-season before finding homes for his clients. Occasionally, his patience had paid off, including once during Dombrowski’s tenure with the Tigers. When in 2012, Victor Martinez suffered a late-winter knee injury, it opened the door for Boras to appeal directly to Tigers owner Mike Ilitch, who agreed to sign Boras client Prince Fielder.

What neither the Red Sox nor Boras knew at the beginning of this off-season, however, was the prospect of an industry-wide market downturn, the likes of which the sport hadn’t seen in years. As recently as the start of February, the top half-dozen free agents – several them handled by Boras – were without contracts.

Boras made his demands for Martinez known early in the off-season, envisioning a seven-year deal worth $210 million. That was approximately double in total value for what the Red Sox anticipated and two years longer than they were comfortable giving.

So, the standoff began. Boras wanted a higher AAV (average annual value) and a longer commitment. But in a barren market, the Red Sox understood that any sweetening of their initial offer – believed to be five years at just over $100 million – would mean bidding against themselves.

Even as negotiations stalled, the Red Sox weren’t tempted by alternatives. They checked in on Carlos Santana before Santana signed a three-year, $60 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. But the presence of Logan Morrison and other sluggers on the market never seemed to dissuade the Sox.

In an effort to provide themselves with other options, the Red Sox engaged in some trade talks. They inquired about the White Sox' Jose Abreu and others, but, having dealt off top prospects in earlier deals for Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz and Chris Sale, were limited by a depleted farm system.

Their goal, all along, was Martinez. And if they couldn’t get him, they were content to wait until the July trading deadline to address that need.

Publicly, Dombrowski said all the right things – that he liked the makeup of the Red Sox roster for 2018, though he was always open to improving it. They didn’t send out any signals that they were desperate, but remained in touch with Boras to affirm their interest.

On Monday, they won the winter-long stare-down.

With exhibition games set to begin later this week, time and options were running short for Martinez. While the Arizona Diamondbacks, for whom he played the second half of last season, expressed a desire to find a creative way to bring back Martinez, they had too many constraints. The presence of Zack Greinke on the current payroll and the prospect of having to re-sign face-of-the-franchise Paul Goldschmidt after 2019 left them little financial wiggle room.

With no other opportunities, Boras proposed a slightly restructured deal with two opt-out opportunities, aimed at giving his client the chance down the road to make the kind of money he couldn’t in the down market of 2017-18.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox, having stayed resolute, were finally rewarded.