Patscap Mailbag: Questions about Gostkowski, Solder and potential comp picks

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Over the years, I've had a bunch of questions about the Patriots and the cap. But the question I get more than any other is a simple one: Why do I do this? The answer: Because the fans of the best team of the salary-cap era deserve better salary-cap coverage than they get from the lazy "cap is crap" crowd. I try to include something in all mailbags and post something that you won't hear anywhere else. Now, let's get to this week's mailbag, one with a focus on kicker Stephen Gostkowski.

@DarinJWeeks: chances the Pats cut Gostkowski? How much cap space would that free up?

Not good. I asked the kicking guru Chuck Zodda about Gostkowski, and he replied via e-mail: "He's still in the top 5, but his place in the top 1-2 has wobbled a bit since '15-16. People always forget that Vinatieri missed a 31-yarder and had a 36-yarder blocked against Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII. Even the greats have their days." My guess is he and the Patriots extend his deal sometime during the 2018 season, and it will look like his current one. Gostkowski is playing on a four-year, $17.2 million deal that paid him a $6 million signing bonus and fully guaranteed the salaries of the first two years. His cap numbers under his deal are as follows:

2015 - $3.6 million
2016 - $4.1 million
2017 - $4.5 million
2018 - $5 million

The below extension projection is my first use of TablePress. Please let me know what you think.

[table id=11/]

@HookerJohn: We need Nate (Solder) to stay. Think we can afford a 2 year deal for this guy assuming his current market value and age?#PatsNation?

Yes, the Patriots can afford to pay fair market value ($10 million to $13 million APY) for Solder as part of a two-year deal. He probably will have the highest 2018 cap number of any free agent that the Patriots sign this offseason.

@TBizzle81: Can the Cardinals can agree to allow a (Fitzgerald) trade though? What exactly does the no-trade clause mean?

Larry Fitzgerald can't be traded by the Cardinals without his permission.

@ffalphamale: Evening sir!  I love my pats and your account.  Thanks for keeping me up on the money. My friend is a 49ers fan. Do you know of another user similar to you that does the same for the 49ers?

For the 49ers, try @Jay_AB81. For the Bengals, @johnthebaines. For the Seahawks, @DavisHsuSeattle and @EvanonHB. For Washington, @PCinOz. For the Lions, @theNetRat. The favorite teams of @RavensSalaryCap and @Texanscap are self-explanatory...

@TPoch23:  if pats lose Lewis and Butler will they get compensation draft picks?

The Patriots will probably receive 2019 compensatory picks if Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler leave in free agency. But it really depends on if the Patriots sign qualifying free agents from other teams this offseason. For example, signing Stephon Gilmore will offset losing Logan Ryan for the 2018 compensatory pick calculations.

@derekSzczepanek: Can you tell me what happened to Antonio Garcia?

He came down with an illness. What illness? Do not know. Expect that we will find out before OTAs. Whatever it was, it has been reported to have caused a weight loss of over 40 pounds.

@theSpecial_01: Difference between fully guaranteed and guaranteed for injury?

"Fully guaranteed" covers being released because the team believes there are 53 better players that belong on the team. This is known as the skill guarantee. Fully guaranteed covers being released for salary cap reasons. This is known as the cap guarantee.

@RThomps11: Do you have any predictions regarding the six players listed (Brandin Cooks, Trey Flowers, Shaq Mason, Chris Hogan, Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Allen)? Who gets extended, who tests the market?

Answer: Cooks, Flowers, Gostkowski, Mason are extended sometime during 2018 while Hogan and Ryan Allen play out the 2018 season under their current deals. Below are my projections for the three extensions.





@madrid_dav: Out of these 4 Free agents, who are the Pats most likely to go after? Vontae Davis, Aqib Talib, Eric Reid or Ziggy Ansah?

In descending order:
Vontae Davis
Eric Reid (Patriots with McCourty, Chung, Harmon are pretty deep at the safety position)
Ziggy Ansah (expect him to either be tagged or to sign a long-term deal with the Lions)
Talib is technically not a free agent. He is signed through the 2019 season.

@TommyG64010544:What about comp pick for Logan Ryan, Bennett, or Blount?

Ryan's signing was offset by the Gilmore signing. Bennett will not qualify for the compensatory pick calculations since he was waived before Week 10. Plus, he ended up with the Patriots -- his old team. The NFL CBA limits the number of compensatory picks to the number of clubs in the league (32). While Blount qualified for a compensatory pick, his value (36th overall) fell short of the cutoff.

@palomo21: Miguel is there a rule regarding the minimum $ superstarar like Brady could sign in a multi-year deal? As if Brady could sign a Mega Discount deal to help the patriots cap room and possibly adding a few superstars for more superbowl runs?

There is no such rule. I will argue that Tom Brady took below-market deals in 2013 and in 2016 which gave the Patriots a huge salary-cap advantage. Since 2013 the Patriots have won two Super Bowls and played in another.

@ItsDadMan: What influences you to choose the high end of the 2018 NFL cap projection over the low end?

2017's number ($167 million) was on high end of 2016 winter projection. Prior years ended up being a couple of millions more than highest projection.

@palomo21: sorry if you have answered this already but why do your cap numbers differ from the one at overthecap.com?

I account for more incentives than they do. Since I cover just one team, I am usually quicker in inputting contract data into my numbers.

@jasonh_86: Just a thought: Any chance (if they re-work it), the Pats would consider converting some of Gronk's playing-time/production incentives to signing bonus? Try to give him more rest during the season w/out risking his paydays.

No, since Gronkowski does not have any incentives in 2018/2019 years.

@tahamufti1: can Gilmore Cap hit be reduced to create cap room? For McCourty I'm sure it will be with a extension

Yes. Gilmore's 2018 cap hit can be reduced by converting salary into signing bonus. But since doing so will result in increasing his 2019/2020/2021 cap numbers I doubt that will happen. Please note that the Patriots have done this maneuver just once since 2013 -- Devin McCourty in 2016.

@naufig: I think at this moment he's [Danny Amendola] more valuable than Edelman. Any chance that Edelman got cut?

None at all, especially since his 2018 salary is fully guaranteed. Pats would lose about $1.6 million in cap space if they cut Edelman before June 2.

@Felixsanchezd: Can you do the analysis of the impact would do in the cap a trade for Sherman?

Richard Sherman is signed through the 2018 season. If traded to the Patriots -- which I doubt will happen -- his 2018 cap number for the Patriots would be $11 million. Since he would displace a player with a $555,000 salary from the Top 51 list, the net cap space lost would be $10,455,000. The net cap space number would change if a current Patriot was included in the trade.

@Felixsanchezd: Do you think Brady will do a big restructure/extension to cut down his $22mil cap hit significantly?

Yes. I am currently working on a piece that outlines different Brady extensions scenarios.

@Patsfan1950: Did they ever get the Hernandez credit?

As of today, the Patriots have not received a credit for his signing bonus. Do not expect a credit until all of his legal battles have been settled.

Does your salary cap number include the 2017 carry over?

Answer: Yes, my salary cap space number accounts for the $3,012,602 carry over.

Question: What is your current Patriots salary cap number?

Projected League cap: $178,100,000
Prior year carryover: $3,012,602
Adjustment: ($105,613)
Patriots adjusted cap: $181,006,988
2018 cap commitment: $167,220,769 with 63 players signed for the 2018 season
2018 CAP SPACE: $14,119,553

Have a question for a future PatsCap mailbag? You can send those to him at any time via email (patscap@bostonsportsjournal.com), or you can Tweet them to him here.