Why the Celtics will consider paying Greg Monroe over $5 million for this season

Greg Monroe continues to wait to sign a new contract with the Celtics with the NBA trade deadline approaching on Thursday. As BostonSportsJournal.com first reported on Saturday, the Celtics are keeping Monroe off the roster for now to gain greater flexibility prior to the trade deadline. With a roster spot still open, the Celtics can execute a 2-for-1 trade without having to waive a current Celtic.

The situation shouldn’t bother Monroe at all. He’ll be getting all of his reported $5 million salary, no matter when he signs with the Celtics (which should be no later than Thursday evening from what I'm hearing via league sources), a sizable chunk of the team’s $8.4 million disabled player exception.

However, if the Celtics decline to make a trade deadline deal that inches them closer to the luxury tax, it’s possible they could offer more to Monroe than the $5 million to increase the odds of retaining him past this season.

Even though Boston can only sign Monroe to a one-year deal with a disabled player exception, they will retain Non-Bird Rights on the 6-foot-11 big man after this year. That means they could offer up to 120 percent of his previous salary for the 2018-19 season in an attempt to re-sign him to a new deal.

By giving him just $5 million this year, the Celtics could only offer him a max of $6 million as a starting salary for his next contract. That’s not likely to be enough to retain Monroe in the open market this summer.

If the Celtics boost that salary for this season up closer to $7 or $8 million (the DPE is worth up to $8.4 million), things get a lot more interesting. Not only does Monroe get a big bonus for just a couple months of work now, he may very well be an $8-9 million player on the open market in free agency this summer which would be comparable to what the Celtics can offer him. Seeing Boston won’t have any cap space heading into this summer, the ability to retain Monroe without using their mid-level exception money (roughly $9 million) could be a huge weapon as they attempt to build a contender.

There’s no guarantee that Monroe would want to stay in Boston, as he could seek additional playing time or a longer contract elsewhere if things go sour over the next couple months. Still, Brad Stevens has demonstrated time and time again over the past few seasons that he puts his players in position to succeed. Multiple former Celtics have seen big paydays (Evan Turner, Kelly Olynyk) coming out of Stevens’ system and Monroe’s value around the league has taken a sharp dip in the past few years after he signed a three-year max contract with the Bucks in 2015.

While no direct agreement can obviously take place between the Celtics and Monroe’s camp about next season until the summer, you can bet the Celtics would explore if he’d be willing to play on a one-year deal for the 2018-19 season in theory. It’s a unique situation to keep an eye on as the trade deadline unfolds, since leaving the door open for Monroe to come back this year could be key if the Georgetown product makes a positive impact down the stretch for the green.