How will Terry Rozier's development impact Celtics' plans with Marcus Smart?

The Celtics have played five games since Marcus Smart punched a glass frame in a hotel bathroom in Los Angeles and suffered multiple lacerations to his right hand. Boston is 4-1 since Smart has been sidelined and that one loss against the Warriors? Brad Stevens thought that might have been the best game the Celtics have played all year.

While it’s far too small of a sample size to make any strong direct correlation between Smart’s absence and the C’s success over the last couple weeks, it’s fair to say others are already taking advantage of Smart’s absence. Terry Rozier has played the best basketball of his career in the last week while seeing big minutes. Jayson Tatum has found his offensive groove once again as he’s taken a bigger slice of the shot pie (14.4 per game over last five contests), over four attempts higher per game than his season average. Additional injuries to Shane Larkin (knee) and Kyrie Irving (quad) have also forced Brad Stevens to go with Al Horford and Marcus Morris at point forward at times and that look has worked out nicely for Boston’s offense this week.

These developments are noteworthy for a Celtics team that has some big decisions to make not only during the next week at the trade deadline, but for the future as well. Smart is a restricted free agent this summer. Rozier (barring an extension) will be a restricted free agent next summer. It’s very unlikely the Celtics will be able to retain both past next summer with three max contracts already on the roster. It’s just not feasible to invest significant money in two reserve guards and stay within the team’s budget and that’s what will be required when they hit the open market.

While the Celtics don’t have to make a decision on Smart’s future just yet, this upcoming week is one of the last windows they have to do so. The prospect of moving Smart, a crucial fixture of the C’s crunch time lineup all year long, ahead of the trade deadline seems like a bit of a reach upon initial consideration. Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens are huge fans of the point guard and his defensive versatility and his value during a playoff run this year would be important. However, if the team doesn’t think they want to pay what will be required to retain Smart this offseason, moving him now has to be looked at.

It’s also hard to ignore at this juncture just how much better the offense has looked lately with Smart off the floor. Here’s a look at Smart’s on/off splits over the last 20 games.

When Marcus Smart is on the floor: Offensive rating 98. Defensive rating 97.6
When Marcus Smart is off the floor: Offense rating 107.9 Defensive rating 98.

Smart’s net rating over that stretch (+.4) ranks him tenth on the roster. There are obviously plenty of other variables in play in those numbers, but there’s no denying that the point guard has been a drag on Boston’s offense with his woeful shooting of late and that impact is outweighing his defensive impact over this stretch.

The other problem with Smart has been his offensive miscues. He’s turning the ball over on a career-high 18 percent of his possessions, which is a pretty atrocious number for a point guard. When you combine that with 35 percent shooting from the field, you have the recipe for disaster for the Celtics offense when Smart’s leading the second unit.

Despite those woes, Smart still ranks fifth on the roster in minutes per game (30.3). If Rozier continues to thrive in the upcoming week or two with Smart out, I wouldn’t be surprised if that minutes average declines once Smart gets back. Rozier is starting to show that he’s capable of running point in a pinch and that’s not a trait he has had over the last couple years. The 23-year-old has developed quite nicely though over the past season and that’s something we haven’t seen from Smart, at least on the offensive end.

No decision needs to be made by the Celtics’ brass just yet on the two guards, but this is a trend to keep an eye on. Smart has his work cut out for him when he gets back to the floor to show that he still deserves the 30 minutes he’s been averaging all year long. Otherwise, it might be Rozier sliding into that bigger role for the remainder of the season and beyond.