When it comes to the biggest games, the smallest matchups loom large, because the margin of error is so small.
Sure, the big names need to be on point. But the coaches will be targeting individual matchups as the vehicle for their team's success.
Make no mistake -- the Jaguars will be coming to play with the momentum that comes from winning two straight playoff games, including one in Pittsburgh last weekend. That game gave Jacksonville a ton of confidence, and it should. The Steelers might be the most talented team in the league, and the Jaguars beat them on their own turf to land in the AFC championship game.
But the Jaguars have yet to encounter such an experienced and disciplined team, one in which the following role players will be expected to continue executing at a high level:
DT Malcom Brown
The interior lineman has been a tour de force since returning from injury, and he's the one physically dominating presence the Patriots have on the interior. After watching Jaguars center Brandon Linder have the game of his life against the Steelers, the Patriots coaches know the Jaguars' precious running game runs through the extremely physical, smart and athletic center. If Brown can control Linder on the interior, it's going to make things very difficult for Jacksonville.
LB Elandon Roberts
The second-year linebacker has been up and down this season, but of late, he has settled down again and is playing with his head instead of his eyes. The Steelers are watching this weekend largely because their excellent ILB Vince Williams played his worst game of the season as the Jaguars attacked him in the running game with Linder, and got him falling for fakes in the passing game. The Jaguars will have seen Roberts' struggles on film and think they can scheme open some easy plays against him due to his boom-or-bust play. It's incumbent upon Roberts to play smart and with restraint, or else he could suffer the same fate as Williams.
WR Danny Amendola
Expect the Jaguars to have a solid plan against Rob Gronkowski, and Brady will always have options with the running backs. But to make big plays in the passing game, they're going to be hard to come by on the outside. That means that for the second-straight week, Amendola should play a huge part in moving the chains on third downs, just like Julian Edelman did against this same scheme in the past two Super Bowls.
LG Joe Thuney
Whether it's Marcell Dareus on early downs, or Calais Campbell kicking inside in passing situations, Thuney should expect to have the toughest matchup the entire game. I'm sure the Patriots will give him some help with center David Andrews at times, but Thuney's going to be on his own a lot. He's returned to his very good early-season play, but this could be the toughest task all season. Not only is he going to have to anchor against two bigger opponents, but he's also going to have to navigate the twists and stunts as well. This is a monumental challenge for Thuney.
Here is the scouting report on the Jaguars through film study of three games and discussions with two pro personnel directors:
OFFENSE
Scheme
Nathaniel Hackett, the 38-year-old son of former college and NFL coach Paul Hackett, is the offensive coordinator, and he's done well to make something out of nothing when it comes to the quarterback position. The Jaguars are a multiple run-first offense with West Coast roots, that likes to use multiple tight ends and a fullback. They will run play action and rollouts to minimize the pressure on the quarterback. Jaguars were sixth in total offense (365.9), first in rushing (141.4), 17th in passing (224.6), fifth in point (26.1), 20th in third downs (37.4 percent) and second in red-zone touchdowns (64.0 percent). They allowed 24 sacks, and gave the ball away 23 times.
Quarterbacks
5 Blake Bortles (6-5, 236): The third overall pick in the 2014 draft has regressed, if anything. The Jaguars initially said they would sit him for his rookie season, but then changed plans when starter Chad Henne struggled. He's big and strong-armed, and surprisingly fast (he will run both on scrambles and designed runs). He is not capable of running a full-field read offense full-time, so the Jaguars try to set him up as much as possible with run action, boots and designed deep shots. Bortles struggles against man coverage because he does not throw with anticipation well. Much more comfortable vs. zone.
7 Chad Henne is the veteran backup and is a lot like his Patriots counterpart, Brian Hoyer.
Running backs
27 Leonard Fournette (6-0, 240, 4.52): Rushed 25 times for 109 yards and three touchdowns against the Steelers, but is dealing with a chronic ankle injury that is worse than it sounds. Physical and runs with decent vision. Looks for contact, sometimes too much. Needs to be gang tackled. Decent hands. Not much of a blocker.
33 Chris Ivory (6-0, 229): Veteran was inactive vs. Steelers but figures to be up considering Fournette's ankle. Tough and smart. Does everything well.
24 T.J. Yeldon (6-1, 223, 4.54): Smooth third-down back who is capable of doing some damage on early downs, but he's not a bruiser. Not a good blocker so look for the Patriots to bring pressure against him.
40 Tommy Bohanon (6-2, 246): Fullback is a good all-around player. Will get the ball via the run and pass. Tough blocker in the run game.
Receivers
11 Marqise Lee (6-0, 196, 4.47): Both of the top two receivers have been dealing with ankle injuries for much of the season. Lee is a solid receiver and decent route runner. Usually lines up on right side. They're all limited by the quarterback. Had a team-high eight drops. Caught 56 of 91 targets.
88 Allen Hurns (6-3, 201, 4.55): The most polished and experienced of the receivers but he's really struggled with injuries. When he's right, he's excellent. Caught 39 of 54 targets.
84 Keelan Cole (6-1, 194, 4.59): Undrafted free agent has been very impressive this season. Is the starting left receiver, with Hurns coming off the bench. Has caught 42 of 72 targets.
12 Dede Westbrook (6-0, 178, 4.39): The fourth-round pick is a total speedster and dangerous. Still, he's a rookie and not polished. Second on team with four drops. Caught 27 of 49 targets.
89 Marcedes Lewis (6-6, 267, 4.85): Veteran tight end is a solid all-round player who will do some work in the run game, but struggles in pass pro. Is a security blanket for Bortles. Caught 24 of 45 passes, including a team-high five touchdowns.
83 Ben Koyack (6-5, 258, 4.70): The tight end is just a blocker, doesn't bring anything to pass game.
80 James O'Shaughnessy (6-4, 245, 4.68): Former Patriots TE is an athletic pass catcher but not a good blocker.
Offensive line
74 LT Cam Robinson (6-6, 320): Second-round pick is a massive player with a bright future but he struggles with both run and the pass.
77 LG Patrick Omameh (6-4, 327): Journeyman gets after it in the run game but he has slow feet and is not much of an athlete.
65 C Brandon Linder (6-6, 315): One of the best in the league at his position -- everything goes through him. Linder was awesome against the Steelers and completely dominated. Strong and quick.
60 RG A.J. Cann (6-3, 325): Tough as nails but he's not overly athletic and can get pushed around.
78 RT Jermey Parnell (6-6, 326): The former basketball player and Cowboy is one of the best athletes at the position, but he is far from polished and will get beaten by more technically sound veterans.
DEFENSE
Scheme
Coordinator Todd Wash came to the team with former coach Gus Bradley from Seattle, and he runs the same Cover 3 scheme with man principles and a safety in the box. Defense ranked first in yards per play (4.61), 21st in rushing allowed (116.3), first in passing (169.9), fourth on third downs (33.6 percent), second in red zone (39.3 percent), and second in points (16.8). They have 55 sacks on the year, and 33 takeaways.
Defensive line
93 LE Calais Campbell (6-8, 300, 5.09): Just a massive human and is a terrific player. Tough to block one-on-one and will get into passing lanes. Led team with 14.5 sacks and 30 QB hits.
97 LDT Malik Jackson (6-5, 290, 4.91): One of the best interior rushers in the game, the former Bronco has caused issues for Patriots over the years. Undisciplined vs. run. Had eight sacks.
99 RDT Marcell Dareus (6-3, 331, 4.93): Former Bill is a bull-rushing force when he feels like playing, but is mostly a run stuffer.
91 RE Yannick Ngakoue (6-2, 246, 4.71): Phenomenal athlete who will line up and rush from anywhere. Had 12 sacks and 23 hits.
56 Rush end Dante Fowler (6-3, 261, 4.56): Former third-overall pick had eight sacks in a part-time role. Not as explosive as he was before his knee injury, but has to be watched.
94 Rush end Dawuane Smoot (6-3, 255, 4.80): Depth.
95 Run stuffer Abry Jones (6-3, 313): Interior depth.
Linebackers
50 W/MLB Telvin Smith (6-3, 215, 4.51): Smith and Jack both never come off the field. Smith is fast and instinctive, but can overpursue plays and get out of position.
44 SLB Myles Jack (6-1, 244, 4.55): Another tremendous athlete with flow problems. Will cover tight ends but doesn't have a great feel for it.
51 MLB Paul Posluszny (6-2, 232, 4.70): Strictly a base personnel player who they don't want to see in coverage. Best tackler and smartest linebacker.
Secondary
21 LCB A.J. Bouye (6-0, 191, 4.55): Big money free agent from the Texans is tremendously competitive and physical. Good ball skills. Didn't give up a touchdown in regular season.
42 SS Barry Church (6-2, 218, 4.67): Former Cowboy is a good box safety in this scheme but really struggles in space. Good man to man and against the run.
39 FS Tashaun Gipson (5-11, 212, 4.61): Dealing with an ankle injury. Would be a huge loss if he can't go. Plays the Earl Thomas role in this scheme and can do it all.
20 RCB Jalen Ramsey (6-1, 208, 4.38): If he's not the best cornerback in the league, he's in the top two or three. Great balls skills and runs like the wind. Will talk a lot of smack too, and back it up.
22 SCB Aaron Colvin (6-0, 193, 4.50): Good coverage player in the slot, but struggles to tackle at times. Expect Patriots to run some reverses at him.
26 S Jarrod Wilson (6-2, 210): Would get call if Gipson can't go. Only played 88 snaps in regular season.
23 Dime Tyler Patmon (5-10, 188): Journeyman shouldn't see the field very much.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Veteran P Brad Nortman does not have a big leg but he's excellent at placement.
K Josh Lambo missed just two field goals all season but only had 24 attempts after being signed Oct. 17. Career and season long is 56 yards at home on Nov. 5.
PR Jaydon Mickens fumbled four times this season. Averaged 10.3 yards per return and had 72-yard touchdown.
KR Corey Grant packs some punch with 24.9 average.
PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS
What you see isn't what you get: The Jaguars are a very fast and very instinctive defense, but they're not very experienced or disciplined so they will overpursue against play action and fakes. Expect the Patriots to make the Jaguars read and react, which will slow them and/or cause mistakes and busted coverages.
Go big or go home: The Jaguars are at their best against multiple receivers because it allows them to play physical against the receivers and allows their rush to get home. Expect this to be a big base personnel game for the Patriots (if Tom Brady can get under center) with multiple TEs and FB James Develin. That way, the Jaguars can't get physical with the receiver and it forces MLB Paul Posluszny to stay on the field, and the Patriots will target him with first-down throws to Rob Gronkowski.
Go fast: The best Jaguars pass rush for the Patriots is a tired Jaguars pass rush, so expect the Patriots to try to keep that thin but great line on the field as much as possible.
PATRIOTS DEFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS
Make Jaguars one dimensional: Patriots will play their 3-4 run defense and try to limit the ground game as much as possible. The sooner the game is in Blake Bortles' hands, the better.
Keep your eyes clean: The Jaguars would prefer to limit Bortles throwing from inside the pocket as much as possible, so they will try every run and misdirection play in the book to get the Patriots linebackers to flow and create openings. It's incumbent upon Elandon Roberts to read his keys properly.
No scrambles for Bortles: It's another Marquis Flowers spy game. Make Bortles work for everything and have to throw the ball into tight spaces.
PICK
Line: Patriots by 7.5. O/U: 45.5. Season: 13-4, 8-8-1 ATS.
Brady's hand and the speed of the Jaguars will need some adjusting to, so this could be close into the second half. But like the last two Super Bowls against the same scheme, the Patriots will wear down the opponent and figure out the best way to attack.
Patriots 30, Jaguars 10
