Breaking down Patriots upcoming free-agent class: Who will stay and who will go?

The team-building process never stops. That's why, even with the Patriots on the cusp of the postseason, it never hurts to think about what the roster is going to look like in 2018. New England has several players poised to become unrestricted free agents. How will the next few months play out for each one of them? Here's our breakdown:



Left tackle Nate Solder

This is one of the three toughest ones, at least from an in-house perspective. Solder has protected Tom Brady’s blind side for much of his NFL career, and has earned the respect of his teammates and the coaching staff for his hard work and diligence (not to mention the admiration of the locker room, which rallied to his cause this year when he was a candidate for the Walter Payton Man of the Year honors). But he will be 30 before the start of the 2018 season, and with the Patriots drafting Antonio Garcia in the third round last spring, the franchise could be in the preliminary stages of planning for Solder’s eventual departure, either as a free agent or to retirement. For what it’s worth, he does have a clause in his contract that prevents him from being hit with the franchise tag this offseason, so that has to be taken into account when you formulate any sort of team-building plans for 2018 and beyond. There’s also the fact that both backup tackles — LaAdrian Waddle and Cam Fleming — are also set to be unrestricted free agents as well. Basically, there’s the potential for a lot of movement at the tackle position in New England this offseason, but the conversation begins and ends with Solder.



Running back Dion Lewis

You look at the numbers and the performance and the dynamic running style, and it certainly appears to be a no-brainer. But given Lewis’ age, injury history and the way the Patriots treat the running back position, it’s not so easy. Lewis will be 28 next September, an age where most running backs are starting to ramp down. Now, it’s important to remember that he hasn’t had the usual career arc that most running backs enjoy. This has been the best and most productive year, so the usual wear and tear that usually slows a back in his late 20s might not show up when you look at Lewis at this stage of his career. But given the fact that Bill Belichick views running backs as mostly fungible assets and his occasionally dicey durability issues, the 5-foot-8, 195-pounder could very easily be elsewhere next season. The best possible scenario for both sides? Follow the same path the Bengals did with Gio Bernard a few years ago. But like Solder, the debate around Lewis will certainly be front-and-center this spring.



Running back Rex Burkhead

Burkhead has had some durability issues this season, missing six games this season with rib and knee issues, but when he’s been healthy, he’s been a nice revelation as part of a backfield that was the first in New England franchise history to have three different backs hit 30 catches and 30 carries in a season. Burkhead, who will be 28 next season, probably won’t be looking for a sizable payday based on what he accomplished in his first season with the Patriots, but a two-year deal for short money could be enough to keep him around Foxborough for 2018 and beyond. A good complementary player who would certainly fit into the scheme moving forward.



Cornerback Malcolm Butler

Hoo boy. By now, we all know about Butler and the Patriots and contract situations the last couple of years, so there’s no real need to go into the backstory. There are three options here: New England could let him walk in free agency, re-sign him, or hit him with the franchise tag. The tag numbers have not been solidified as of yet, but according to these totals from the guys at Over The Cap, that would represent a one-year deal for Butler at $14.2 million. If the Patriots lose him as a free agent, it means a combination of Stephon Gilmore, Eric Rowe, Jonathan Jones, Cyrus Jones (and maybe Johnson Bademosi) at corner in 2018, with the possibility of additions in free agency and the draft. Not bad, but not an ideal situation.



Offensive tackle Cam Fleming

The 25-year-old backup tackle has been up-and-down in his four years with the Patriots. He’s had some very good moments (mostly as an additional blocker in games where the Patriots have leaned heavier on the run game), but he’s also struggled on the edge against premier pass rushers. A portion of his future is likely tied to what the Patriots decide to do this offseason with Solder, Waddle and Garcia, as well as whether or not they want to get another tackle in free agency or the draft. But it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if Fleming was elsewhere in 2018.



Offensive tackle LaAdrian Waddle

Waddle and Fleming have flip-flopped each other on the depth chart on multiple occasions this season, but the 26-year-old has been a (mostly) decent presence on the edge as a backup swing tackle for New England in his time with the Patriots. When it comes to 2018, a lot of what we said about Fleming certainly applies to Waddle — his future with the franchise would likely be tied to a few other aspects of the team-building process this year, and the domino effect of decisions on guys like Solder will eventually impact Waddle. Ultimately, If I had to choose between Fleming and Waddle as swing tackle options for the Patriots in 2018, I’d go with Waddle.



Defensive tackle Ricky Jean Francois

The 31-year-old veteran and Dunkin Donuts mogul, who was signed in November as a free agent, has performed really well for the Patriots this season as a rotational part of the front seven, stepping in and giving New England a worthy option after Alan Branch went down for a stretch with a knee injury. If he does want to come back, it would almost certainly be on a one-year deal for relatively short money. If he decides he’s had enough and wants to retire, he could just as easily sail off into the sunset — the LSU product has certainly done well to set himself up financially for life after football.



Cornerback Johnson Bademosi

The Patriots love their defensive back/special teamers, and Bademosi certainly fits that bill. Smart and cost-effective, these sorts of players are always in high-demand in Foxborough. He’s not a Pro Bowler, but has carved out a niche as a quality backup corner and nice special teams addition. If the money is right, I can certainly see New England re-upping him for another year in Foxborough.



Linebacker Marquis Flowers

They play different positions, but you can put Flowers in the same category as Bademosi for a few reasons: Both were acquired late in the team-building process, but both have eventually grown into a nice dual role that accentuates their special teams and defensive value. Flowers isn’t an All-Pro, but he has done a nice job offering depth at the linebacker position — his quickness and closing speed has allowed him to get after quarterbacks, as well as pursue backs and tight ends in the passing game. And his special teams skills have also been a nice surprise. Like Bademosi, if the dollars are right, he’s a prime candidate to return to the Patriots on a one-year deal.



Wide receiver Danny Amendola

Amendola has already shown a willingness to do whatever it takes to stick around New England — he had his previous deal re-done on multiple occasions to make it more cap friendly for the Patriots. With the shared history between the two sides, the fact that Amendola is 32 and probably won’t find a big market for his service, as well as his special teams value, he and the Patriots should be able to find some common ground on a deal that doesn’t involve a big commitment when it comes to years and/or guaranteed money.



Edge defender James Harrison

It’s likely a wait-and-see scenario with the 39-year-old Harrison, who isn’t signed beyond the end of the 2017 season.



Special teamers Matthew Slater, Nate Ebner, Brandon King and Brandon Bolden: We’re going to group these four together because they are, in many ways, the very personification of the players Belichick can’t get enough of: cost-effective, smart, good in the locker room and versatile enough to fill in as special teamer and take a few reps at some other spots as needed. Basically, it would be very surprising if any of these three did not return in some form or fashion in 2018. Expect all to return, with Slater, King and/or Ebner possibilities for two-year deals.

Possible departures?

In addition, there are other veterans who are likely facing an uncertain offseason in some form or fashion. Here’s a quick look at that group:

Tight end Martellus Bennett: The 30-year-old veteran, who is currently on injured reserve because of a shoulder issue, is signed through 2018, but has said he plans on retiring after the 2017 season. You ever know with Bennett, but given the wide array of his off-field pursuits — music, animation, etc. — it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if he decided to call it a career.

Defensive lineman Alan Branch: Branch, 33, has exceeded expectations since he first arrived in 2014, working as a nice piece of the puzzle in New England’s front seven. However, knee issues hampered him for portions of the 2017 season, and while we’re not ready to concede that he’s done, some of the treads may have come off the tires. The team holds the option for 2018, so he could still return, but if he does, it could ultimately be at a reduced rate.

Tight end Dwayne Allen: A prime candidate for an offseason restructure, the tight end has a 2018 cap number of $5 million and a 2019 number of just over $7 million. Not ideal for a secondary option at the position, regardless of how good a blocker he is. Allen, who will turn 28 this offseason, has enjoyed himself in New England this year, and the belief is that the two sides figure out a new deal to keep him in Foxborough, one that includes a more incentive-laden deal over the next couple of seasons.

Linebacker David Harris: The veteran, who will turn 34 later this month, is signed through the 2018 season, but almost will certainly not see the end of that contract as it currently exists.

Running back Mike Gillislee: This has almost certainly not been the scenario Gillislee envisioned when he signed with the Patriots last April as a restricted free agent — the 27-year-old has taken multiple healthy scratches as he’s seen himself elbowed out of the picture at running back. He’s been a complete professional about the situation, as he has worked as a scout team back in practice and said all the right things with the media, despite dropping on the depth chart. Signed through 2018, it’s almost certain he’ll be elsewhere next season.