MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Chris Price did a great job earlier this week giving you the scouting report on the Dolphins the second time around.
We also talked to Palm Beach Post Dolphins writer Joe Schad for latest on tonight's opponent, and his game pick.
Looking back at my notes from the last matchup (Gamebook), here are some things that stood out:
- The coverage was great in the secondary. The matchups were: Stephon Gilmore vs. Devante Parker, Malcolm Butler vs. Kenny Stills, Jonathan Jones vs. Jarvis Landry with some help. It wasn't an accident Jones got Landry, Miami's best receiver. Jones has been the most effective cornerback this season.
- We saw a lot of good and some bad from Elandon Roberts in the first matchup. He was brought on a lot of green dog blitzes (linebacker blitzes if the back stays in to block), and produced two sacks but also allowed a touchdown on a swing pass, and blew a gap on a big run.
- The Patriots seem to target Dolphins free safety T.J. McDonald by running a lot of route combinations that put him in a "bind" (where he'd have to choose which route to give help to). Patriots hit a couple big plays that way, when receivers looked wide op. Like this one from Tom Brady to Brandin Cooks.
- Patriots offensive line gave up an alarming 51.7 percent pressure rate.
- That being said, there was a ton of good run blocking the game, and thought the Patriots could have run at will.
PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS
Run it and then run it some more: Patriots backs had 31 carries for 175 yards (5.6 average) in the first matchup and there was the potential for much more. Combine an aggressive defensive line with poor linebackers, and you have the chance to pop some lead draws with James Develin and inside zone runs.
Make Brady get rid of it: The offense was at it's best when Brady was getting rid of the ball at the top of his drop, and not trying to make plays. Against the Dolphins, Brady doesn't have to win the game, he just needs to distribute the ball. His health is more important than anything that this point.
Chip Cam Wake: The veteran defensive end had a monster game in the first matchup and the Patriots must do a better job against him this time around.
PATRIOTS DEFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS
Bracket Landry in the slot: The most dangerous part of the Dolphins is when Landry is in the slot, because of the two-way (inside-outside) he has. Expect the Patriots to have a plan for him inside (Marquis Flowers) and deep (Duron Harmon) with Jonathan Jones in man coverage.
Make Cutler feel pressure: Trey Flowers led the team with 3.5 pressure in the first matchup, and he's out tonight. Patriots need someone to step up and fill that void. Time for Deatrich Wise to get over his rookie wall.
Make Damien Williams pass block: If he gets into the flat, it will take a team effort to corral him. Don’t let him. The Patriots have been green dogging (sending linebacker into the line on a faux blitz to keep the back in) a lot lately and that should work here (it did the first time).
PICK
Line: Patriots by 10.5. O/U: 48.5. Season: 10-2, 6-6 ATS.