Scouting report: How does Miami's approach change with Jay Cutler back at QB? Plus gameplan points

An in-depth look at the Dolphins, with game-plan points and a scouting report:


OFFENSE

Scheme

As was the case a couple of weeks ago, this is Adam Gase’s offense. He calls the plays. And with Jay Cutler back under center — he returned to his starting role last week against the Broncos — look for Miami to take its share of deep shots. The important thing to remember? Don’t expect the Dolphins to be a carbon copy of the offense they brought into Foxborough a couple of weeks ago because of the changes at quarterback. Cutler and Matt Moore have different tendencies and different favorites when it comes to the passing game. (More on that in a second.) Overall, the Dolphins rank 29th in total offense (292.6 yards), 29th in rushing (84.7), 20th in passing (207.9) and 26th in points scored (17.4). They are only converting 33.1 percent of third downs, and the team passer rating is 78.5.

Quarterbacks

Last time around, it was Moore. This time? It'll be Cutler. And the truth of the matter is that, Bill Belichick owns Jay Cutler. In his three career starts against Belichick-coached teams, Cutler’s squads have lost by 34, 29 and 28 points. In those three games, Cutler has a 60 percent completion mark, 547 passing yards, with four touchdowns, five picks and a passer rating of 70.5. On the 2017 season, Cutler has completed 64 percent of his passes for 1,837 yards, 15 touchdowns and 11 picks. … Moore, who was overwhelmed at times in the second half of Miami’s loss to the Patriots — he threw a killer pick right before the half that ultimately sunk the Dolphins’ hopes — is back to being the backup.

Receivers
Watching some of this video of Belichick during the first Miami game should tell you everything you need to know about where the Patriots’ defensive priority lies: stopping Jarvis Landry.



With terrific speed and good hands, the 6-foot, 205-pounder is the Dolphins best receiver (80 catches, 123 targets, 699 yards, six touchdowns). Last time around against New England, Landry got his yards (6 catches for 60 yards in the first half against the Patriots, and eight for 70 on the afternoon), but youngster Jonathan Jones worked against him in man coverage most of the afternoon, and did a good job limiting his production.
Kenny Stills (6-foot-1, 196 pounds, 4.35): Had a slight uptick in production with Moore as opposed to Cutler. He’ll get his chances against the Pats — in six career games against New England, he’s averaged five targets a context. Eighty-two targets on the season, and has 48 catches. Drew Malcolm Butler in coverage in first matchup.
DeVante Parker (6-foot-3, 212 pounds, 4.42): A favorite of Cutler’s early in the season, he’s been slowed as the year has gone on. Thirty-six catches on 61 targets. Covered by Stephon Gilmore in first matchup.
Leonte Caroo (6-foot, 215 pounds, 4.49): Nine offensive snaps in the last two games means he’s more of a special teamer at this point.
Julius Thomas (6-foot-5, 262 pounds, 4.68): The Dolphins’ primary target at tight end. Thirty-seven catches on 54 targets. That includes five catches for 52 yards the last time Miami met the Patriots.
Anthony Fasano (6-foot-4, 258 pounds): The blocker to Thomas’ pass catcher, he’s occasionally good for a red-zone target here or there, but not much else.

Running backs
Kenyan Drake (6-foot-1, 210 pounds, 4.38): Drake took over the primary back responsibilities after the trade of Jay Ajayi. He’s a home-run hitter who has struggled at times with consistency. Coming off his best game of the season (23 carries, 120 yards, one TD vs. Denver). Sixty-five carries for 320 yards on the season. If the Dolphins can find a way to hang around on Monday, he’ll play a big role in keeping things close.
Damien Williams (5-foot-11, 222 pounds, 4.53): Third-down back with good quickness. Struggles as a blocker. Twenty catches on 28 targets for 155 yards.

Offensive line
(With this group being fundamentally the same as a couple of weeks ago, we’ll revisit Greg’s pre-game assessment from when they met the first time around.)
LT Laremy Tunsil: Former first-round pick moved back to his college position after Branden Albert was traded, and he’s not ready for prime time yet. Has good skills but not sure if he has the feet for the position.
LG Ted Larsen: Former Patriots draft pick has bounced around but he’s still very beatable on the inside.
C Mike Pouncey: Thanks to nearly annual injuries, is nowhere near the future All-Pro he appeared to be. Doesn’t anchor well and can be pushed around.
RG Jesse Davis: Didn’t make it to the end of training camp with Seattle and the Jets previously. Very tall for a guard (6-foot-6) so expect the Patriots to get under his pads.
RT Sam Young: Huge tackle (6-6, 332) who is very slow and is repeatedly beaten by speed.

DEFENSE

Scheme

Bay State native Matt Burke is in his first year as Miami’s defensive coordinator, and has an up-and-down unit that has done well in some spots and not-so-great in others. Cameron Wake was immense the last time these two teams played (5.5 hits on Tom Brady, sack), and other defenders have had great moments this year, but consistency (against the run and pass) has been an issue for this unit. Overall, the Dolphins don’t blitz a lot, and alternate between man and three-deep zones. Miami ranks 18th in total defense (339.9), 21st in rushing (116.5) and 15th in pass defense (223.4). It has allowed 36.9 percent on third downs, good for 10th in the league.

Defensive line
DE Andre Branch: If we’re talking about potential vulnerabilities in the Miami defensive front, you can talk about Branch. If you’re looking to get to the edge, you’re better off aiming for Branch than Wake.
DT Ndamukong Suh: Still disruptive, but not the overwhelming force he was a few years ago. Shaq Mason did well against him in their first matchup.
DT Jordan Phillips: Has issues as a run defender, but got after it in the first matchup against Joe Thuney.
DE Cameron Wake: He’s not the same guy he used to be, but he was still dynamite the last time time these two teams played. Whoever ends up at right tackle for the Patriots will need some help against Wake, who leads Miami with eight sacks.

Linebackers
MLB Chase Allen: Has issues in coverage, but Miami’s linebackers will catch a break because they won’t have to worry about scheming to slow Rob Gronkowski.
WLB/MLB Kiko Alonso: A defensive wild card who can occasionally play out of control, he can still go sideline-to-sideline with the best of them. Has some coverage issues, particularly against “make-you-miss” guys.
SLB Lawrence Timmons: Lost a step, but is still a tackling machine. Smart defender who is capable of sniffing out screen passes — he did it multiple times in the last Miami-New England contest.

Secondary
LCB Cordrea Tankersley: Miami’s best corner. The rookie suffered shoulder and ankle injuries in last week’s win over Denver, but if he’s good to go, he will present a sizable challenge.
RCB Xavien Howard: Tied for the team lead in picks (two) with McCain and Jones, Howard has struggled in his second season. Expect the Patriots to target him of a few reasons, not the least of which is the fact that he has issues covering burners because he can’t keep up or can’t compete with high-speed change of direction guys. (More on that in a second.)
SCB Bobby McCain: Not an elite defender, but tougher than most who does well in the slot. It’ll be interesting to see how he responds after getting tossed out of the game the first time these two teams met earlier in the season.
FS T.J. McDonald: Suspended for the first eight games of the season for violating the NFL Policy and Program for Substances of Abuse, he’s played better as of late after a tough start.
SS Reshad Jones: On a defense with bigger names, Jones is an under-the-radar presence who is one of the more unheralded guys in the league at his position. Can offer support against the run and pick off a pass as needed.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Kicker Cody Parkey is one of the best in the league when it comes to field-goal attempts (13-for-14, including 4-for-5 from 40-plus), but he’s missed three extra-point attempts. … Punter Matt Haack is averaging 44.7 yards per punt (25th in the league) and has a 40.9 net (15th). He hasn’t had a punt blocked all year, and has put 26 of his 66 punt attempts inside the 20, fifth-best in the league. … Jakeem Grant is the primary option as kick returner (23.3 yard average, seventh in the league) and punt returner (7.3 average, 20th best). The Dolphins don’t have a return for touchdown this season.

With these two teams having played just a couple of weeks ago, things aren’t going to change drastically when it comes to game plans and approach. With that in mind, we asked former NFL scout Dan Hatman specifically about two players, Gronkowski and Cutler. Gronkowski, who played last time, will be sidelined on Monday. And Jay Cutler, who didn’t play last time the Dolphins met the Patriots, will play in this one. How will that change each team’s game plan?

PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS

“The offense never looks the same when Gronkowski isn’t on the field. He’s a unique individual and has to be prepared for accordingly. If he’s not there, it allows Miami to free things up and do some different things on defense. For me, the really interesting thing for me is that the wide receivers and pass catchers that New England has, outside of Chris Hogan, are different body types than the Miami corners the Dolphins have been collecting. It’s intriguing for me if I’m the Patriots, because if the New England guys can get those free releases off the line, then those quicker types can really cause trouble for those bigger corners of Miami. The long-limbed defensive backs can’t change direction as well as some of the smallish guys that the Patriots can roll out there. It’s not necessarily a knock on the coverage skills of the likes of Howard or Tankersley, but when you get those defensive backs who are in the six-foot range, you have to look at the matchups. We would look at how those guys could handle something we called a high-speed change of direction. Can they handle that? If not, if I was Brady, I’d expect them to play a greater role than usual in this one with Gronkowski out of the lineup. As an example, Howard is a guy who can easily take away vertical routes. He has the speed to do it. Maybe you get Brandin Cooks running different types routes on these guys.”

PATRIOTS DEFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS

“Cutler was using Devante Parker earlier in the season more than Matt Moore was the last few games. That’s a guy they’re looking to get back in some sort of rhythm. That is a change that the New England defense will have to be prepared for. Little things, like you the quarterback prefers to distribute the ball. You’ll have to take the game film from a couple of weeks ago with a grain of salt because there are little tendencies for each guy. We would study target tendencies by situation. Does he have a guy who he likes in certain situations? Does he have a guy he likes on third down? Red zone? You have to toss out some of the game planning you had to do the last few weeks because quarterbacks have tendencies that can impact play calling. There are things Moore does better than Cutler, and vice versa.”