The odds of the Celtics landing the 2018 Lakers pick are about to improve

There were plenty of surprising teams around the NBA at the start of the regular season and the Los Angeles Lakers were one of them. They came out of the gate with a .500 record over the first ten games, with some impressive wins over the likes of Detroit and Washington. it got to the point where I wondered whether it was time for the Celtics to worry about their chances of landing that 2-5 protected pick from them for the 2018 NBA Draft.

Back then, I speculated that it was a little bit too early to worry about the hot start, because the Lakers were playing quite a bit over their heads in the early going. Since that column, the Lakers have stumbled mightily, losing five straight and dropping 10 of 13 overall to fall to 8-15 on the year. Currently they hold the seventh worst record in the NBA in a very crowded race at the bottom of the standings. The Lakers are just 2.5 games behind the Hawks for the league's second-worst record.



Standings via Tankathon.com

The noteworthy part of this latest slide for the Lakers in my mind is that it has come from the easiest part of the team's schedule. They've played 13 home games already (tied for second-most in the Western Conference) and also have played one of the ten easiest schedules in the NBA to this point, according to Basketball-Reference, including three games against the Suns, two against the Clippers and single matchups against the Bulls, Grizzlies and Kings. Out of the ten worst teams in the NBA, only the Suns have played an easier schedule than the Lakers to this point.

All of this would seem to indicate life is about to get a lot tougher for the Lakers on the court and the upcoming December schedule looks particularly brutal. Check out the team's next nine games leading up to Christmas day.

@ Philadelphia
@ Charlotte
@ New York
@ Cleveland
vs. Golden State
@ Houston
@ Golden State
vs. Portland
vs. Minnesota

Eight of those nine teams are playing above .500 basketball and the one exception (the Hornets) are 7-3 at home on the year. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a lowly 2-8 on the road this and won't be favored to win a game potentially until Dec. 29 against the shorthanded Clippers.

The team's current five-game losing streak could easily hit double digits over the next couple weeks and that should take them even closer towards the basement of the NBA standings. They aren't going to catch the Bulls this year and keeping pace with the Grizzlies (losers of 11 straight) will be tough as well, given their injury woes. However, the Hawks, Kings and Mavericks have also shown signs of life in recent weeks with a couple feisty wins. It is early obviously, but none of those squads has given up on this season just yet.

Meanwhile, the Lakers are a team that just can't score the ball. They rank 28th in offensive efficiency and dead last in 3-point shooting (31.5 percent). With the team's defense starting to fall back to earth a bit (15th in NBA over last 10 games), it's going to be hard for them to keep up with high-powered offenses around the league. Brook Lopez is having a down year, Lonzo Ball can't shoot, and Luke Walton simply doesn't have enough other offensive options to turn to. Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram have been impressive scoring the ball, but it's tough to ask them to be your top two scoring options and win games.

There is still a long way to go in the lottery race and the Lakers have no incentive to tank since they will lose their pick either way. Still, the stars are aligning for them to be safeky among the five worst teams in the league by the start of 2018. That means the players could have very little to play for (i.e. no shot at the playoffs) for the rest of the way in a stacked Western Conference. That's more good news for the Celtics' chances to land a top-5 pick for a loaded 2018 Draft. The guess here is that the Celtics fans will have to sweat things out on lottery night (i.e. the Lakers will be favored to finish outside the top five when you factor in pick odds) but the odds are looking a lot better for Boston than a month ago and should continue to improve for the foreseeable future.