NFL Notebook: Time for MVP candidates to make their move

Taking a weekend trip around the NFL with a focus on the Patriots…


1. If you want to win the NFL MVP, now’s when you need to start your closing kick. This time last season, the race was pretty much wide open, as Tom Brady was battling Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott for the honor. But a strong statistical stretch from late November and into December from Ryan — and two games where the Pats won primarily with stout defense and a strong running game — allowed Ryan to rise above the rest of the pack in the eyes of voters and take home his first MVP award. This time around, the field has been narrowed to Brady, Carson Wentz and Drew Brees, all of whom have an excellent shot down the stretch. Three things worth passing along when it comes to the MVP race: One, Brees has the toughest schedule of that group down the stretch when measured by opponents won-loss record — the Saints’ opponents the rest of the way have a 34-26 mark, while New England’s opponents are currently 30-30 and Philly’s opponents are 27-35. Two, Wentz (Seattle, Los Angeles Rams) and Brees (Los Angeles Rams, Carolina) will face two defenses the rest of the way in Football Outsiders’ top 10 in DVOA. Brady will only face one (Pittsburgh). And three, here's how the betting service Bovada breaks down the MVP odds' at this point in the season.



2. There are plenty of reasons for the Patriots to feel confident heading into Sunday’s game, including the fact that historically, the Dolphins always struggle in late-season games in Foxborough. Dating back to 1996, in games played between the two teams in New England in November, December or January, the Patriots hold a whopping 13-2 advantage. (It’s worth mentioning that one of the two losses came in a contest — the Doug Flutie Drop Kick Game — where it was in New England’s best interest to lose to garner a more favorable playoff spot. The Patriots certainly played that way, as Matt Cassel flung a ball practically into the stands on a late two-point conversion attempt that would have knotted the contest.) In their 13 late-season wins over the Dolphins at home, the Patriots’ average margin of victory has been by 14 points, 28-14. Considering the state of these two teams heading into this contest, it feels like a spot-on difference for Sunday’s game.

3. Two Patriots-related statistical nuggets to consider on Sunday.

a) Brady has 64,728 career passing yards and needs 272 passing yards against Miami on Sunday to become the fourth player in NFL history with at least 65,000 passing yards. Currently, Brady is fourth overall in career passing yards, trailing Peyton Manning (71,940), Brett Favre (71,838) and Brees (68,894). For what it’s worth, Brady trails Manning by 7,212 passing yards. If he can continue on his career pace of 262.1 yards per game, he could pass Manning somewhere around the tail end of the 2019 season.

b) Rob Gronkowski has 6,714 career receiving yards, which is 11th all-time among NFL tight ends. With 28 more receiving yards, he’ll move into the top 10 among all tight ends in NFL history.

4. One more note from our Shaq Mason feature that we didn’t include earlier in the week: if he’s able to go wire-to-wire and play every snap this season, he’d be the first Patriot to pull that off since Brady and offensive lineman Ryan Wendell both accomplished the feat in 2013.

5. Interesting to see the 32-year-old Darrelle Revis catch on with the Chiefs this week. Not sure what the former Patriot has left in the tank — based on his performance down the stretch last season, it’s probably not much. But he’s a compelling figure who has the potential to make the AFC playoff chase a little more interesting down the stretch. Two things that stand out to me — if there’s someone capable of wringing a little bit more out of Revis, it’s Kansas City defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, who was with Revis in New York as the DC (and later as a defensive assistant and linebackers coach) during his glory days with the Jets. The familiarity of working with Sutton likely played a role in his decision. And above all, Revis remains loyal to Revis: in the picture that was Tweeted out by the team announcing his signing, while he was wearing Chiefs gear, he was wearing a “DR” cap, the insignia of his own brand. I know that's become commonplace among stars -- locally, look at the success of the TB12 or JE11 companies -- but in my experience, Revis maximizes his brand like few others. In an era where players can be cut at the drop of a hat and not be owed anything, I’m not sure there’s been another player out there who has done a better job at getting the most out of every potential revenue stream along the way than he has.

6. On the heels of Bill Belichick saying Friday the Patriots see their former players stay in the league moreso than most other organizations — he approximated there were roughly three ex-New England players on each team, if you include practice squad and guys on injured reserve — we decided to put together a roster of ex-Patriot All-Stars currently in the league, with an emphasis on guys who have departed in the last few seasons. We couldn’t manage a complete depth chart at a couple of positions, but it’s still a sturdy looking roster:

Defense
Defensive Line: Akiem Hicks, Kyle Love, Chris Long, Jabaal Sheard, Chandler Jones.
Linebackers: Barkevious Mingo, Jonathan Casillas, Jamie Collins, Jon Bostic.
Cornerbacks: Cre’Veon LeBlanc, Logan Ryan, Aqib Talib, Darrelle Revis.
Safety: Tavon Wilson.

Offense
Quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett.
Running back: LeGarrette Blount, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen.
Tight end: Ben Watson, James O’Shaughnessy, Matt Lengel, A.J. Derby.
Offensive line: Ted Larsen, Josh Kline, Jon Halapio, Ryan Groy, Chris Barker, Jordan Devey.
Wide receiver: Brandon Tate, Brandon LaFell, Kamar Aiken.

7. It was announced this week that Gronkowski, Brady and Stephen Gostkowski all lead AFC Pro Bowl voting at their respective positions. Brady is second overall in total votes, trailing only Wentz (273,367 votes to 239,989 votes). One more Pro Bowl note: In this week’s Q&A, a BSJ reader asked why New England fullback James Develin wasn’t on the ballot, particularly because he’s having an excellent season. Apparently, colleague Mike Reiss was able to get to the bottom of the issue, and as of Saturday morning, Develin was on the ballot.

8. As a team, last Sunday against the Raiders, the Patriots took two penalties for 10 yards, not counting those that were offset or declined. (Remarkably, New England has only been called for three penalties the last two games, not counting those that were declined or offset.) On the season, the Patriots have 62 penalties (tied for fourth-fewest) and 558 penalty yards (eighth). Overall, here’s a look at players who have played at least 500 snaps this season and have one penalty or less:

Zero penalties
S Devin McCourty — 664 defensive snaps
S Duron Harmon — 515 defensive snaps

One penalty
G Shaq Mason — 723 offensive snaps
QB Tom Brady — 711 offensive snaps
CB Malcolm Butler — 643 defensive snaps
WR Chris Hogan — 535 offensive snaps

Most penalized by position (top 5 positions)
Special teams: 14 penalties for 117 yards
Offensive Line: 12 penalties for 125 yards
Cornerback: 8 penalties for 119 yards
Wide receiver: 7 penalties for 61 yards
Defensive Line: 7 penalties for 45 yards

Most frequently called penalties (top 5 types of penalties)
Offensive Holding: 10
False Start: 6
Offensive Pass Interference: 6
Illegal Block Above the Waist: 5
Defensive Holding: 5
Defensive Pass Interference, Illegal Use of Hands, Defensive Offsides: 3

(As always, thanks to NFLpenalties.com for providing a database to help cross-check our information.)

9. Last week, I was 9-5, and I’m 102-56 on the year. My picks for this week? Glad you asked. I’m already on record as having gone with the Vikings, Chargers and Redskins. I’ll add the Falcons, Bengals, Titans, Chiefs, Patriots, Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks, Jaguars, Rams, Raiders, Steelers and Ravens to my list of winners.

10. This week, the Patriots will start prep for a three-game road swing — next Sunday in Buffalo, a week from Monday against the Dolphins in Miami and that Dec. 17 game in Pittsburgh against the Steelers, a contest that could go a long way toward determining home-field advantage in the AFC. If they are able to take care of business and win all three, it would allow them to stretch their road win streak to 16 and come tantalizingly close to the all-time mark of 18 straight wins away from home (a mark set by the 1988-90 Niners). It could also be the last time the team would set foot on a plane until a potential trip to Minneapolis for Super Bowl LII.