MLB Notebook: A scouting report on Ohtani; the case for El Tiante; is AGon all done?

In the past few months, there’s been so much speculation, so much anticipation, about Shohei Ohtani, that it’s easy to forget that very few have actually see him pitch. Or, for that matter, hit.

Ohtani is about to become the subject of a wild bidding war among virtually every major league team, and by the end of next month, will be signed by one of them. He is, simultaneously, the most affordable and most compelling free agent of this winter.

If Ohtani were merely a 23-year-old, top-of-the-rotation starter, he would be intriguing enough.  But what makes him utterly fascinating is his desire – and ability – to become the game’s first two-way player in decades.

There will be time enough to assess the field, handicap the favorites and determine what Ohtani is prioritizing his search for a new baseball home.

But for now, let’s focus on what Ohtani might be capable of.  We spoke with a veteran major league talent evaluator who has seen Ohtani pitch, in person, more than a dozen times.

“I would say talent wise, he’s off the charts,’’ said the evaluator. “In comparison to other pitchers who have come over (from Japan), I’d rank him at the top. Command-wise and in terms of polish, he’s still a bit of a work in progress. But it’s the best pure stuff I’ve seen of a guy coming over.’’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-OZXSpXsEk

The list of other Japanese pitchers who’ve come over is an impressive one, and include Hideo Nomo, Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

What’s not to like?

“His fastball is mid-to-upper 90s, and tops out at 100 mph or more,’’ said the evaluator. “His slider is a plus-pitch and he throws it hard (at 94 mph).  And his split-finger (fastball) is devastating. The split is the key.  Japanese hitters are geared more to contact (than MLB hitters do), so in a lot of ways, that’s his big ‘out’ pitch. But his whole repertoire is power all the way.’’

Asked to make a comparison with a major league pitcher – either current or recent – the scout struggled.

“It’s hard to make a comp to an American pitcher because very few use the split the way Japanese pitchers do,’’ he said. “American pitchers generally throw more changeups. But when that split is on, it’s just devastating.  It’s unbelievable.’’

What’s important to remember is that Ohtani is just 23 and may still be improving.

“What he’s going to be in 2018,’’ the evaluator said, “is different than what he’s going to be in 2020 or 2021. He’ll have some transition to make, and have to settle into a routine, learn the league…all those things. But he checks all the boxes.’’

If his ability on the mound weren’t enough, that’s only part of Ohtani’s game. He’s also an impressive lefthanded hitter with power and surprising speed for someone his size (six-foot-four, 210 pounds).

“He can be 4.0 (seconds) down the line, ‘’ the evaluator said. “He had surgery on his ankle, and he’s had some hamstring issues, so I don’t know how that might affect (his speed). But he moves very well for a big guy. He’s got a great combination of power and speed.

“We’ll have to see how the power translates. But it’s easy power.  If he played every day, that power would play up.’’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBEjdlHO7aM

Of course, it’s unknown how teams will utilize him as a hitter. Should Ohtani sign with an American League team – as many project – he could pitch once every five days, and perhaps serve as the DH on two others.

Working out a schedule that maximizes Ohtani’s offensive potential while protecting him as a pitcher will be the biggest challenge. But Ohtani has made it clear that hitting isn’t a lark or some novelty for him. This isn’t Madison Bumgarner – a fabulous pitcher who manages a handful of home runs each season, but is a career .185 hitter.

“Some team is going to have to figure all of that out,’’ he said. “He’s made it known since high school that there’s a desire to hit regularly. This is something he’s very serious about.’’

If Ohtani were to sign with a National League club, he could occasionally play the outfield, where he’s judged an average corner outfielder with, naturally, a plus-plus throwing arm. But the demands of playing the field, coupled with being a regular member of the starting rotation, would likely be too much.

“You look at the top pitchers in baseball,’’ said the evaluator, “they work their asses off between starts. There’s a real physical toll that comes just from (pitching). Now, add in all the demands of playing the outfield, being on his feet, running the bases…..To do both on a regular basis would be extremely difficult.’’

As it is, teams may limit his workload on the mound – at least initially. Last season, Chris Sale’s 215 innings led all starters, the lowest total for an innings-leader in a full season. Where front-line starters were accustomed to getting 33 starts in a season, last year, only a dozen hit that milestone.

The new schedule guidelines, which build in an additional five off-days into the regular season calendar, will enable teams to more carefully manage workloads and provide additional time off.

It might be better for a team to have Ohtani make, say, 25 starts, especially considering that Japanese pitchers are accustomed to making one start per week, rather than once every five days.

That and determining how – and how often – to incorporate his bat into the lineup will be a work in progress for the team fortunate enough to sign him.

“I’m going to be fascinated to see how this plays out,’’ said the talent evaluator.

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In another two weeks, the Eras Committee will determine the fate of 10 candidates for the Hall of Fame. This year’s list is from the “Modern Baseball Era (1970-1987)’’ is due up, with the following up for consideration: Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Marvin Miller, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Ted Simmons, Alan Trammell and Luis Tiant.

A panel of 16 voting members – comprised of current Hall of Famers, executives and media members – will vote. Candidates need to amass votes from at least three-quarters (12) of the panel and members are restricted to voting for two candidates.

Miller’s exclusion from the Hall to date is inexcusable and likely driven by an animus from owners and executives, who resent his work to overthrow the reserve clause which kept players in endless servitude to their original teams. But as others have stated, no single person since Jackie Robinson impacted the game more than Miller.

Among the players, Tiant is a compelling case.

Let’s start with the negatives: Tiant, great as he was, had only a handful of truly dominant seasons. He never finished higher than fourth in Cy Young balloting and was named to just three All-Star games, and in the final four seasons of his career, he was just 21-17 with a 4.31 ERA and 55 starts.

But there are plenty of positives, too. He twice led the American League in ERA – including a ridiculous 1.60 ERA in 1968 – and four times won 20 games. He also had a masterful 1975 World Series with two complete-game victories and in five post-season appearances in his career, fashioned a 2.86 ERA.

Tiant’s best case for election, however, may come in comparing him to some contemporaries who are already members in good standing in Cooperstown: Catfish Hunter, Don Drysdale and Jim Bunning.

Tiant was second in the group with 573 games pitched, compared to 500 for Hunter, 518 for Drysdale and 591 for  Bunning. That group was relatively close in innings pitched, with Bunning leading the way with 3,760.1 followed by Hunter at 3,499.1, Tiant at 3,486.1 and Drysdale at 3,432.

Tiant led with 229 wins, just ahead of Hunter and Bunning (both at 224) with Drysdale last (209). Drysdale, with the benefit of pitching in Dodger Stadium, had the lowest career ERA at 2.95, followed by Hunter (3.26), then Bunning (3.27) and then Tiant (3.30). Again, all relatively close.

In winning percentage, Tiant was second-best - just barely. Hunter led with .574, followed by Tiant (.571), then Drysdale (.557) and then Bunning (.549).

Bunning, who had almost 300 more innings pitched then the rest, understandably piled up the most strikeouts with 2,855. Then came Drysdale at 2.486, Tiant (2,416) and Hunter (2,012). When it came to complete games, Tiant led the way with 187, with Hunter second (181), Drysdale third (167) and Bunning (151) last.

WHIP? All four were bunched together with Hunter (1.134) lowest, followed Drysdale (1.148), Bunning (1.179) and finally Tiant (1.199).

For career WAR, it's noteworthy that Tiant was first among the four at 66.1, followed by Drysdale (61.2), Bunning (60.3) and Hunter lagging far behind (36.6).

In the larger picture, Tiant may not qualify as a slam-dunk choice for the Hall. His career was sprinkled with mediocre seasons and his failure to capture a single Cy Young Award might be held against him. But in judging against his best contemporaries, a strong case can be made that he merits election.

Here’s wishing him the best.

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Is the end near for Adrian Gonzalez?

The Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman is coming off the worst year of his career, one limited by elbow and back injuries. He has a year remaining on his deal  – signed, you may recall, while with the Red Sox, back in 2011 – at $22.4 million, but no real place to play with the N.L. champions.

Cody Bellinger has taken over at first base, and though Bellinger could, conceivably, be moved to the outfield, that position is pretty crowded, too.

Then there’s the matter of Gonzalez’s standing with his teammates, who were not happy that he wasn’t around in the NLDS or NLCS. Gonzalez, who was on the DL with a lingering back issue, had permission from the club to help settle his family in Italy as his wife was readying for a new opportunity.

When Gonzalez returned in time for the World Series, he was on the field and in uniform prior to one of the games, and that didn’t make his teammates happy, either.

Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi told reporters recently that “Guys can bounce back (from off-seasons and injuries),’’ but it’s hard to see where Gonzalez’s opportunity would come even if he's fully healthy.

He has a full no-trade in his contract, so moving him will not be easy.

It’s possible this is the end of the line for Gonzalez, who has 2,010 career hits, 311 homers and seven seasons with 100 or more RBI. Still, there’s the feeling that he somehow should have accomplished more.

It’s not just Gonzalez who has underachieved.  Often, it’s been the teams for whom he’s played that haven’t been as good as anticipated.

Maybe that’s an unfair rap for someone who’s been a multiple Gold Glove winner and named an All-Star five times.

But as the No. 1 pick in the 2000 draft and owner of a sweet lefthanded swing, Gonzalez was somehow supposed to be better than he’s been.