Why Marcus Smart's shooting woes increase his odds of staying with Celtics long-term

At least it can't get any worse...right? That's the attitude most Celtics fans have taken when it comes to discussing Marcus Smart's shooting over the last two seasons. That mindset has been proven wrong over the first month of this season because, yes, it has gotten worse.

The 23-year-old reserve guard is shooting a career-low 26.7 percent from the field in his first 16 games of the season. That's only slightly better than his 26.3 percent shooting from 3-point range (incredibly, not a career-low), which means Smart is only shooting 27.3 percent from inside the arc. That's the lowest percentage for a rotation guard in the NBA (next lowest is Austin Rivers at 33 percent) this year.

The ugly numbers aren't preventing Smart from shooting more than ever. He's attempting a career-high 10.3 shots per game and 4.8 shots from 3-point range, which ranks him third on the team in both of those categories. Yes, on a team with Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris and Jaylen Brown, Smart is taking more shots than Tatum, Morris and Horford. Some of Smart's high-volume shooting is because the second unit lacks scorers (which is a whole other discussion), but it's still alarming.

All of this isn't meant to take away from what Smart has done on the court during the C's 16-game winning streak. The Celtics' offense is actually performing better on a whole when he's out there, (particularly the game-closing unit). His defense has been better than ever, his assist rate is at a career-high, and he's third on the team in plus/minus (+134). He's making a positive impact on winning on a nightly basis as Brad Stevens likes to describe it and the overall numbers back up that assessment. So why exactly would a bad shooting season for Smart be good news for his chances of staying in Boston long-term?

It's kind of a dream scenario when you think about it from Danny Ainge's perspective. The Celtics wisely rolled the dice and passed on an extension for Smart back in October. That would have been an unfortunate gamble if Smart had a breakout offensive season, but the opposite has occurred so far. He's posting career-low numbers, to the point that other teams have to wonder whether he'll ever develop into even an average NBA shooter four years into his career. Meanwhile, the Celtics keep winning games in spite of his offensive woes.

Smart has proved his worth to the Celtics with his defense and intangibles, but can other teams be so sure that those skills will have the same measurable impact on their systems and match up with their personnel? Perhaps, but it's hard to see them gambling big money in restricted free agency on a guy who is not close to an average offensive player at this juncture of his career. The Celtics have the pieces to cover up for Smart's warts on the offensive end when it matters (i.e. Irving). Other teams don't necessarily have that luxury.

Defensive specialists certainly have value in today's NBA, but their price tag will reach a ceiling this summer during a free agency period in which fewer teams have a lot of salary cap room to use. I discussed some potential suitors already last month here at BSJ. However, some of those teams that were expected to have major cap space have already spent their money a large chunk of change on retaining their own players (i.e. Philadelphia with extensions for Joel Embiid and Robert Covington). That means fewer landing spots for a guy like Smart for a big payday outside Boston.

For the Celtics to retain Smart past this season, they need to do it at a number that makes sense for their long-term budget. Al Horford and Gordon Hayward are max players earning over $30 million per season. Kyrie Irving is going to be earning close to $40 million per year after next season when his current contract expires. That's roughly $100 million dollars that will be spent on just three players for the 2019-20 season. It won't be economically feasible for the Celtics to pay a high impact role player like Smart $15-20 million per season in his next contract and maintain a workable budget. The luxury tax bill will simply be too high down the road when you factor in the salaries of the remaining parts of the roster, including high draft picks like Brown and Tatum (who will both be earning be money towards the end of their rookie deals).

However, there's no denying the Celtics will want Smart back if they can get him signed at the right number. His start to the regular season has helped the chances of that scenario becoming a reality. With his play, Smart looks to be closer to getting Andre Robertson money (three years, $30 million) than Gary Harris money (four years, $84 million) this summer and that's good news for his odds of staying in Boston long-term.