How Eric Rowe's deactivation vs. Raiders impacts Patriots' deal with Eagles

Now that we know cornerback Eric Rowe will be among the inactives Sunday against the Raiders, it brings some clarity to the 2016 deal between the Patriots and Eagles.



Background: On Sept. 6, 2016 the Patriots traded a fourth-round pick in the 2018 draft to the Eagles in exchange for Rowe. The selection would have been upgraded to a third-rounder if Rowe had played in at least 50 percent of the snaps in either 2016 or in 2017. Rowe played in 43.3 percent of the defensive snaps in 2016, so he had to play in at least 50 percent this season for the draft pick to be upgraded.

Before the Raiders game, the 2017 Patriots defense has averaged 65.67 snaps a game. It would have to average 83 snaps a game the last seven games of the season AND Rowe would have to play in all but one of them for him to exactly average 50 percent for the season. The most snaps that the Patriots defense have played in one game is 76 (Week 6 against the Jets). For it to now average 83 for seven games is extremely unlikely. Given that the highest percentage that Rowe played in a game this season is 52.9 percent (Week 1 against the Jets) the Pats would have to suffer a great number of injuries in the secondary for Rowe to play in near 100 percent of the snaps during the last six games of the season. Therefore, it seems safe to now say that the Patriots will be trading their 2018 fourth-round pick to the Eagles for Rowe instead of a third.

Answering some logical follow-up questions:
Question: What are the Patriots 2018 draft picks?
Answer:



Question: How would the numbers change if rounding was involved? That is, Rowe playing in 49.5 percent of the snaps upgraded the pick?
Answer: The number of snaps the Pats defense would have to average the last seven games of the season would decrease from 83 to 81. Rowe would still need to play in all but one of the snaps.

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