MLB Notebook: Projecting which Sox players nearing free agency might be retained: Also, where's the 'value' in MVP?; pace-of-game negotiations and more

When Dave Dombrowski was asked about the star-studded free agent class of 2018-2019 at last week’s GM Meetings, the Red Sox president of baseball operations executed a quick pivot.

“I think what gets lost too is that we have some young players that we want to retain in our own organization,’’ said Dombrowski. “So, how many big, big dollar guys can one club have? So, I think that there are limitations on every organization in baseball in that regard.

“You look at all those things together. In some ways, you prioritize your own players, too, and keeping them for the long term. (But) if you do that, does that restrict you from doing something else? But yet, if you don’t keep them or they don’t want to be with you, then you have other availabilities that are out there, potentially. So, there’s a lot that goes into those decisions.’’

Let’s put aside, for the moment, the possibility that Dombrowski was either dodging the original question about his interest in the likes of Bryce Harper or Manny Machado a year from now. And let’s further dismiss, for the moment, the chance his answer was motivated to purposefully provide some misdirection about the Red Sox’ intentions about the current free-agent class.

Instead, let’s focus on the players currently on the Red Sox’ roster and the likelihood of the organization retaining each one when free agency arrives. We’ve broken up them by free agent class year, though, obviously, the club could begin extension talks ahead of time with any of the players.

Eligible after 2018: Craig Kimbrel, Hanley Ramirez, Drew Pomeranz

Kimbrel
Skinny: Kimbrel has been one of the two or three best relievers in the game for the past half-dozen seasons and after some inconsistency in his first season in Boston, bounced back in 2017. He’ll be 30 a year from now, so that shouldn’t dissuade the Red Sox. However, teams generally shy away from giving big-ticket multi-year deals to closers, with the theory being that others younger (and cheaper) can be developed for that role.

Interest in re-signing him: Slight.
Kimbrel will make $13 million in 2018, the final year of his deal, and undoubtedly will be looking for an increase. Much will depend on how some of the other less experienced pitchers in the bullpen develop. If the Sox believe Carson Smith, Tyler Thornburg, Matt Barnes or Austin Maddux could take over the closer’s role in 2019, Kimbrel will walk.

Ramirez
Skinny: Ramirez has had three seasons in Boston, and only one (2016) in which he was the kind of offensive force they had hoped he would be. Injuries have played a role in his under-performance. He recently underwent yet another shoulder procedure, and the Sox are hoping that allows him to be more productive in 2018.

Interest in re-signing him: Virtually non-existent
Ramirez actually has a vesting option for 2019, and needs 497 plate appearances – and a clean physical after next season – to return for another year. Rest assured, the Red Sox will be careful in determining his playing time.

Pomeranz
Skinny: Pomeranz enjoyed a breakthrough season in 2017, winning 17 games while posting a 3.32 ERA. He also established career highs in starts (32) and innings pitched (173.2). Pomeranz is now a solid No.2-3 pitcher and the lack of potential replacements in the system will provide him with some leverage.

Interest in re-signing him: Moderate. Given their internal depth issues, the Sox will have to give this strong consideration. But Pomeranz’s lack of a track record (at almost 29, he’s had only two seasons with more than 22 starts) and a durability issues will have them thinking twice.

Eligible after 2019: Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello

Sale
Skinny: What’s not to like? Even with his slow fade over the final seven weeks or so, Sale still had an excellent season, leading the league in innings pitched and strikeouts while making every start and compiling a 2.90 ERA. Sale has been both durable (192 innings pitched or more in five of the last six seasons) and dominant (finished in the Top 6 in A.L. Cy Young Award voting in each of the last six seasons).

Interest in re-signing him: Strong
Sale will make a mint on the open market, and is no doubt watching what to see what the likes of Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta land this winter, since the case can easily be made that he’s been better than both. Do the Red Sox really want to have two starts with an AAV (average annual value) of $30 million in their rotation (assuming David Price doesn’t opt out after 2018)? They may not have a choice.

Bogaerts
Skinny: Bogaerts had some major regression to his game in 2017, going backward in homers, RBI and seeing his batting average drop some 21 points. His .403 slugging percentage was, frankly, woeful. His defensive metrics are poor, too, though, on the more traditional eye test, Bogaerts would seem to be at least league-average at his position.

In re-signing him: Slight-to-moderate
Bogaerts needs a bounce back season in 2018. The Sox don’t currently have a shortstop replacement immediately on the horizon, but that can change swiftly. As a client of Scott Boras, it’s understood that the chances of getting him extended before he hits the open market are slim to begin with.

Porcello
Skinny: Will the real Rick Porcello please stand up? Is he the Cy Young Award-winner he showed himself to be in 2016, or the middle-to-back-end innings eater that he was in both his first season with the Sox (2015) and his most recent. At this point, the Cy season looks like the outlier, though there’s something to be said for a pitcher who’s averaged 31 starts and 199.1 innings the last three seasons.

Interest in re-signing him: Moderate.
It may well be that Porcello’s fate will be tied to Sale’s. If Sale stays, it’s hard to imagine the Sox bringing back two starters who will cost $55 million or more per season. If Sale leaves via free agency, Porcello could be a suitable back-up option.

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Perhaps it’s time for the Baseball Writers Association of America to change its premier award from Most Valuable Player to Player of the Year. After all, it seems many of its voters already have.

In the balloting revealed last week, the American League MVP came down to two players whose teams met in the ALCS – runner-up Aaron Judge of the Yankees and eventual winner Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros. No arguments here: both players enjoyed outstanding seasons and helped their teams into the post-season.

That wasn’t the case in the National League, where Giancarlo Stanton of the Miami Marlins edged out Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds.  Both, of course, were terrific in 2017: Stanton led all of baseball with 59 homers while Votto led the N.L. in on-base percentage (.454) and OPS (1.032).

Just one slight problem: Together, their two teams finished a combined 44 games out of first place. Both played for losing teams.

Where’s the valuable part in that equation again?

It’s been suggested players shouldn’t be punished because their teammates weren’t good enough to produce a winning season, or one that the team at least competing for a playoff spot. And it’s true that neither Stanton nor Votto should be blamed for a lesser surrounding cast.

But again, the operative word here is valuable. As great as Stanton and Votto were in 2017, their teams failed to reach the .500 mark. The argument could be made that without Stanton and Votto, the Marlins and Reds were certainly capable of still being below-average teams.

There are times, certainly, when no candidate for a winning team emerges. But that wasn’t the case this past season, with Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt, Colorado’s Nolan Arenad, and Charlie Blackmon, and Washington’s Anthony Rendon were next in the voting tabulation. (Arizona, Washington and Colorado each reached the postseason).

A year ago, as a voter for the A.L. MVP (I didn’t have a vote for any award this past season), I took loads of grief for having Mookie Betts well ahead of Mike Trout. You could certainly make the argument that Trout had a slightly more impressive season;  but there was no denying that while the Red Sox won their division, the Angels finished in fourth place, 14 games under .500 and 21 games out of first.

Other sports rarely have this conundrum. In the NFL, the MVP voting is almost always focused on the best players from the most successful teams. No one bangs the drum for the running back with 1,200 yards from a team which goes 4-12.

Perhaps the BBWAA should drop the pretense and re-name the award for Most Outstanding Player. Either Stanton or Votto would have been most deserving under that guideline. But great as they were in 2017, it’s a stretch to pronounce them as most valuable.

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Like it or not, it’s quite obvious that major changes are coming to baseball in 2018. Commissioner Rob Manfred has made it clear that he intends to institute new rules to help facilitate improved pace-of-play. These may include a limit on the number of mound visits, or even a pitch clock.

What’s also obvious is that the Players Association is dragging its collective feet over these proposed changes, arguing that such significant changes will take players out of their routines and effect on-field performance.

The latter is debatable. But what can’t be argued is that change is coming one way or another, since Manfred has within his power the ability to implement these changes without consent of the union. (This is because Manfred made these proposals a year ago, and the Players Association strongly opposed them. That served, in essence, as a warning to the union and now, a year later, he can institute them unilaterally).

“I would characterize those discussions as (being at) the beginning,’’ said Dan Halem, MLB’s chief legal officer and labor negotiator, last week. “We have a ways to go. In terms of the calendar, I think we need to complete those discussions by mid-January in order to effectively roll out (changes for the 2018 season).

“Without getting into specifics, the focus is really on ways to eliminate dead time in the game. … As the commissioner has said, we certainly would like to implement any changes in the pace-of-play area with an agreement (with the union).’’

However, if the union is unwilling to negotiate these changes, they’ll lose any say-so in the process and the changes will be introduced without their input. Given that eventuality, why would Tony Clark and the Players Association not bargain in good faith and have input, knowing changes will be introduced anyway?

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As currently constituted, the Red Sox have 37 players on their 40-man roster. By Monday, they’ll need to add players who would otherwise be left exposed in the Rule 5 draft, which takes place at the conclusion of next month’s Winter Meetings.

It’s a given the Sox will add lefty starter Jalen Beeks, who may be the pitching prospect currently closest to the majors. Reliever Kyle Martin, who made two appearances in the big leagues last summer, is another good bet. Outfielders Danny Mars and Jeremy Barfield and pitchers Ty Buttrey and Chandler Shepherd are other possibilities to be added.

It will be interesting to see if the Sox protect two pitchers who were their top two draft picks from 2013: No. 1 pick Trey Ball or second-round selection Teddy Stankiewicz. Both have, frankly, been busts. Ball appeared to make strides in 2016, only to regress in 2017 at Double A Portland (5.27 ERA in 25 games), while Stankiewicz has stalled out at Portland over the last two seasons.

(Much thanks to the invaluable SoxProspects.com for some of this information).